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April 8-10 Severe threat


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Thr most interesting damage I saw was the convergent scouring (or what looked to be) of asphalt pavement about 1/8" deep on the road nearest where we observed the worst property damage.

 

Asphalt scouring is very common in high end violent tornadoes, such as Dimmit, Texas on June 2, 1995 and Kellerville, Texas on June 8, 1995.

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Let me also say that the NAM/NAM 4 km pretty much kicked the other models out of the ballpark with this setup from what I saw, especially over E IA/N IL. It had the stronger trough all along (along with the slower progression on Thursday). The GFS never backed the surface winds near the low or the WF and Euro had a much more sheared out wave until the 00z 4/9 run (and even then it didn't show instability making it past Central IL due to an excess of junk convection).

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Take it with a grain of salt, but I'm seeing a couple of reports of EF4 being the rating for the Rochelle/Fairdale tornado.

 

This being one of them: https://twitter.com/laurenjiggetts/status/586629315808342017

 

Last EF4+ in the LOT CWA was Plainfield, quite a stretch.

Looks like it was correct

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO,IL

354 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/09/15 TORNADO EVENT...

...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TORNADO PRELIMINARY RATED AN EF-4...

NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE CONDUCTED A GROUND SURVEY COVERING THE MOST

HEAVILY DAMAGED LOCATIONS. BASED ON EARLY FINDINGS THE TORNADO THAT

TRACKED FROM NEAR ROCHELLE TO NEAR BELVIDERE...AND IMPACTED THE

COMMUNITY OF FAIRDALE...APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A SINGLE LONG TRACK

TORNADO. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF SURVEY INDICATES THIS TORNADO

WAS AN EF-4. AN AERIAL SURVEY WILL BE CONDUCTED LATER TODAY OR

TOMORROW...WEATHER PERMITTING...TO CONFIRM A FINAL RATING.

AT LEAST ONE SATELLITE TORNADO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGER TORNADO

WAS FOUND THUS FAR AND THERE MAY HAVE BEEN OTHERS. AN AERIAL

SURVEY WILL HELP US ASCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WERE ANY ADDITIONAL

TORNADOES ON THIS DAY.

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Been on one of the survey teams today, on the end of the significant damage path just northeast of Fairdale to southeast of Belvidere. The other 2 teams focused on Fairdale and near Rochelle. Sobering stuff. Saw the worst damage I've surveyed, including a large section of a home destroyed, very high end tree damage with debarking of a few trees and well over 100 hardwood and softwood trees, and the complete destruction of well built 2 story barns. Thr most interesting damage I saw was the convergent scouring (or what looked to be) of asphalt pavement about 1/8" deep on the road nearest where we observed the worst property damage. Couldn't tell if it was completely caused by the tornado or debris in the circulation. Overall, having been Gino's warning assistant last night and then on a survey today, it's been a pretty emotional experience. But I'm proud to have been a part of the efforts of my office on this event. It's really a miracle that the tornado didn't hit more populated areas and create a mass casualty situation. We're lucky.

Sent from my SM-G900V

Thanks for your efforts, Ricky, both at the NWS and for contributing on this board. When I lived in Elkhart I saw EF-3 damage from the tornado that hit Nappanee IN in October 2007 and that is sobering enough for me.

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Let me also say that the NAM/NAM 4 km pretty much kicked the other models out of the ballpark with this setup from what I saw, especially over E IA/N IL. It had the stronger trough all along (along with the slower progression on Thursday). The GFS never backed the surface winds near the low or the WF and Euro had a much more sheared out wave until the 00z 4/9 run (and even then it didn't show instability making it past Central IL due to an excess of junk convection).

This. By far the best performance of any of the models on this system. The NAM is often an inconsistent model, to put it charitably, but the evolution it was progging made the most sense meteorologically given the strength of the upper trough. The 4km NAM performed very well too once it was in range.

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Pretty much all we have to show from yesterday.  Possible brief spinup with the main cell that went on to hit parts of Clinton Iowa.  This is way back by Ottumwa.  Wasn't tornado warned at the time, but did have some meager rotation on radar.  There's definitely something underneath that notch, and at the time it did look suspicious, but it's hard to tell if it was legit ground circulation or just RFD kicking up dust.  Either way it's pretty wimpy.

 

28lq99i.jpg

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Let's just say this guy was lucky to make it home.

Holy moly

That's right up there for deadpan with Nebraska's 1998 hit "Susan. Bring me my pants."

He literally stopped where it would cross the road and then backed 50 feet up to an underpass. Great video but shows how much some people lack common sense.

No such thing; or more specifically its a term that construes as innate whats really the informally taught, frequently unspoken arrays of learned behaviors, expectations, and knowledge used to define minimal competence among an in-group in a specific setting.

edit by way of example think of a different historical era and / or cultural setting and what things might have been held as common sense we'd now have no problem identifying as like. insane superstition or violent racism, or just plain wrong in terms of safety & survival or what could be concluded about a situationfrom observable evidence. or for most people what would happen if they were suddenly expected to go into an unfamiliar industrial environment (no-one ever looks up)

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You could for sure hear kids talking at the beginning, shocked you didn't hear them screaming, and no reassurances from him to them either. We live in Rockford, NWS issued at least 4 tor warnings/extensions of warnings for the RFD metro, sirens were going off near continuously for over an hour. My kids were more than a little concerned, and they were in the safety of our basement. Enough psycho analysis, happens every time some bumpkin survives to show a video like this. Have to wonder how many of these kind of guys haven't made it, and thus we never get to see the footage. There certainly have been some.

 

To me its fairly obvious he's speaking to someone on the phone. It has that "canned" sound and he's explaining to them, "yah... it's coming right for ME"... not us... he was alone in the car, I'm pretty sure.

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Track extension would be something.

Friend northwest of Marengo describing debris carried onto their fields (north of Rt. 20 and west of Rt. 23) . . .

"There are tufts of insulation, pieces of wood and particle board mangled sheets of steel roofing and siding, chunks of hard plastic and somebody's socks."

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LOT just posted the map below...

 

Will be interesting to see if they confirm the two brief touchdowns we witnessed with the Rockford storm when it was just east of the airport, as well as the satellite tornado that occurred just to the northeast of Fairdale in the field across from us. Also will be interesting to see if another satellite tor is found near the other one south of Belvidere, or if it was just one we saw that wasn't condensed at all for a time and made it look like two touchdowns.

 

7342_900816173308751_1198349153077312357

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