CT Valley Snowman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I see the odds of any accumulating snow in my location as extremely low on Saturday,flakes in the air possibly a little bit better of a shot but it's going to take a stronger and more dynamic storm to get it done at this putrid elevation. Temperatures on Friday could be approaching 60 although cloud cover and showers make keep those temps in check a bit. 60% of my backyard is bare and the kids had a wonderful time playing outside yesterday afternoon on their swings and the sandbox so honestly as much as I enjoyed tracking at these late season events I'm really about done and ready to enjoy some real Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I think most are wiped out this week. Probably only the south shore will have some left in protected areas. Yeah. I suppose that makes sense. Maybe a few deep spots in the woods up by Dave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 As several of us surmised earlier in the weekend..looks like we can skip spring this year and get right to summer with dews and warmth mid April on Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 4m 4 minutes ago The original idea of going from winter to summer this April I think still stands for Northeast. But, cold pool will be a tough beat down. EC ensembles look ugly for that in our hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 O...well I don't have access to precip maps...or I don't know where to find them at least It looked like it would be more than 1-2" on the GFS. It was prob those horrendous snow maps that showed it. But the verbatim solutions don't really matter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 GFS offers some flakes Easter weekend, but might come at too light a rate to accumulate. We'll still have pack - even Friday's possible 50s won't melt 20" with 6"+ SWE. At least the snowbanks have melted back from the road edges so we won't need snowshoes for Sunday's sunrise service on a local roadside with a view to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 It looked like it would be more than 1-2" on the GFS. It was prob those horrendous snow maps that showed it. But the verbatim solutions don't really matter at this point. Yup. Didn't care to scrutinize the run any further than that @ day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I see the odds of any accumulating snow in my location as extremely low on Saturday,flakes in the air possibly a little bit better of a shot but it's going to take a stronger and more dynamic storm to get it done at this putrid elevation. Temperatures on Friday could be approaching 60 although cloud cover and showers make keep those temps in check a bit. 60% of my backyard is bare and the kids had a wonderful time playing outside yesterday afternoon on their swings and the sandbox so honestly as much as I enjoyed tracking at these late season events I'm really about done and ready to enjoy some real Spring. I have the opposite here with 60% snow cover and 3-4' still remaining in the driveway back out which faces north and is heavily shaded. Alot of open fields between Enfield and work in South Windsor are nearly 100% snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 GFS offers some flakes Easter weekend, but might come at too light a rate to accumulate. We'll still have pack - even Friday's possible 50s won't melt 20" with 6"+ SWE. At least the snowbanks have melted back from the road edges so we won't need snowshoes for Sunday's sunrise service on a local roadside with a view to the east. I just did the bi-weekly snow survey up here this morning, and found 28" still at 1,500ft on level ground with like 8.5" of liquid. Rock solid stuff, too. Up at 3,000ft it was 60" with 19" of SWE. Down at home I was still around a foot this morning in the yard, and I gotta imagine that's pretty ripe at least 4" of SWE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Still think a nice 1-3 stripe of snow Pike south late tomorrow night into Wed Am seems the way things look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 30, 2015 Author Share Posted March 30, 2015 Still think a nice 1-3 stripe of snow Pike south late tomorrow night into Wed Am seems the way things look A nice April fool's event before we finally flip the switch? 06z RGEM only had a glancing blow with flurries though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 A nice April fool's event before we finally flip the switch? 06z RGEM only had a glancing blow with flurries though.other guidance more gung ho. We'll see what 12z and 00z do. Tonight's runs are important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I think it's almost curtains on the event tomorrow night outside of maybe a sloppy inch or two along the south coast. This one is trending the wrong way now. There was some slight hope at 00z early last night, but then the Euro said no...and the 06z RGEM, NAM, GFS have followed the Euro's lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 other guidance more gung ho. We'll see what 12z and 00z do. Tonight's runs are important Buh bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 someone in jersey will get six inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Lol. First scooter allows for a nice band south of pike. Then Will says his thoughts and Scooter says no snow. Classic . I'll wait for 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Man they should just sh*t can the NAM for 6 months until convective season starts. What a complete steaming pile of dung that model is for synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Lol. First scooter allows for a nice band south of pike. Then Will says his thoughts and Scooter says no snow. Classic . I'll wait for 00z I think he was looking at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Lol. First scooter allows for a nice band south of pike. Then Will says his thoughts and Scooter says no snow. Classic . I'll wait for 00z I said it's possible there could be a band in srn areas..meaning near the s coast. Not I-90. Possible meaning it's not a stretch..nor is it a lock. Go back and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I think he was looking at the NAM Just the synoptics of it based on 00z and 6z. If 12z goes south then even s coast won't see much. This was never really anything for Pike and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Just the synoptics of it based on 00z and 6z. If 12z goes south then even s coast won't see much. This was never really anything for Pike and north.It did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I said it's possible there could be a band in srn areas..meaning near the s coast. Not I-90. Possible meaning it's not a stretch..nor is it a lock. Go back and read. Probabilistic terminology to Kevin? "does not compute" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I said it's possible there could be a band in srn areas..meaning near the s coast. Not I-90. Possible meaning it's not a stretch..nor is it a lock. Go back and read. "There definitely could be a good band to the north of the low tomorrow night maybe into srn areas...but boundary layer may be a bit mild. I guess for those areas they can pay attention to the runs this morning." C'mon Kev. Maybe into srn areas? That's low confidence into the s coast..nevermind further north. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 It did The NAM had no choice...I don't look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I think he was looking at the NAMMaybe it is a miss ,, but I'll wait for 00z to make final decisions rather than knee jerk reactions based on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 "There definitely could be a good band to the north of the low tomorrow night maybe into srn areas...but boundary layer may be a bit mild. I guess for those areas they can pay attention to the runs this morning." C'mon Kev. Maybe into srn areas? That's low confidence into the s coast..nevermind further north. Jesus. lol You didn't get "to the pike" out of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 lol You didn't get "to the pike" out of that? Well I guess I should be clearer since all weather revolves around the circle of disgruntled weenies in NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Man they should just sh*t can the NAM for 6 months until convective season starts. What a complete steaming pile of dung that model is for synoptics. I think there is a finite cause for why that models errs the way that it does. I was PM'ing with another user recently, who is not a Meteorologist .. but is a PHD in another field. That individual used to create models for lab work, that required input variables, much in the same as that which would be required for modeling any process in nature - whether it be weather or biology, or planetary system genesis...etc etc. What the individual found is consistent with my own suspicion ... and that is too many variables into a process that cannot inherently handle all of them in time, causes the system to permutation/emerge all kinds of unintended results that aren't real. I think I even had a discussion with Mike (Ekster) about this years ago. The NAM seemed to begin losing it as it's grid got excessively finite, and all these newer/exotic initialization schemes got integrated into it. See ... much of this is speculation, but it is borne of knowing how these things work. I know that as we get closer and closer to the origin of fractals, the more variant they become. In a way ... it almost smacks of the electron, double-slit experiments, where any attempt to empirically, directly measure the electron appeared to cause it to "split" ...creepy. As though it doesn't want to be seen... Anyway, at some point, a threshold would be crossed where the knowing the right and wrong permutations to choose from can be deduced -- we are not there yet as a technology. It is entirely plausible in my mind that until some new exotic ...perhaps for better word, 'futuristic' means to measure and process is discovered, the state of the art of modeling is nearing a ceiling. I simple terms, if the NAM stepped back from the such frenzied processing at such fine grid scales, it probably smooths its self out by default and stops errant productions ... throwing out odd looking results. It's interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Btw, EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015VALID 12Z THU APR 02 2015 - 12Z MON APR 06 2015...WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST LATERTHIS WEEK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 thats not going to be hard to do! Btw, EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD138 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015VALID 12Z THU APR 02 2015 - 12Z MON APR 06 2015...WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST LATERTHIS WEEK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 "There definitely could be a good band to the north of the low tomorrow night maybe into srn areas...but boundary layer may be a bit mild. I guess for those areas they can pay attention to the runs this morning." C'mon Kev. Maybe into srn areas? That's low confidence into the s coast..nevermind further north. Jesus. The better question is why are you responding, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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