Ginx snewx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Lots of 50's and low 60's next week and thru months end. A bit BN..Not great..but not terrible if the sun is out 10-15 degree anomalies yield temps in the 40's low 50's but glad to see you capitulated and realize that the early summer like conditions you called for for weeks are not in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 10-15 degree anomalies yield temps in the 40's low 50's but glad to see you capitulated and realize that the early summer like conditions you called for for weeks are not in the cards. I said early summer starting this week which it's been . Everyday 65-70. Saturday 75-78. Only Monday looks really awful next week. I see nothing that shows days of 40's..I do recall you posting last week that only Monday and Tuesday looked nice and warm this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I haven't looked at a lot, but MOS is spitting out MU60s for ORH. Maybe the BDL tarmac tickles 75F, but who lives there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Early summer with frosts. Sounds exactly like early summer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I haven't looked at a lot, but MOS is spitting out MU60s for ORH. Maybe the BDL tarmac tickles 75F, but who lives there? Everyday this week has verified +5 or more above MOS..strong sun..very dry ground,,,mixing,no foliage = Take em up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Everyday this week has verified +5 or more above MOS..strong sun..very dry ground,,no foliage = Take em upIt hasn't up here. In fact I think yesterday was a good 3F below MOS up here. I haven't really looked at BDL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 It hasn't up here. In fact I think yesterday was a good 3F below MOS up here. I haven't really looked at BDL though. Down in SNE where folks live it has. OW DEWPOINTS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW- TO MID-60S /WARMER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AS THE HIGH ANGLE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-APRIL SUN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MAX TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY +5 DEGREES OVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL AND MOS FORECAST GUIDANCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 I said early summer starting this week which it's been . Everyday 65-70. Saturday 75-78. Only Monday looks really awful next week. I see nothing that shows days of 40's..I do recall you posting last week that only Monday and Tuesday looked nice and warm this week Um no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Down in SNE where folks live it has. OW DEWPOINTS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW- TO MID-60S /WARMER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AS THE HIGH ANGLE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-APRIL SUN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MAX TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY +5 DEGREES OVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL AND MOS FORECAST GUIDANCE Yesterday was easy. Downslope all the way....they shouldn't be surprised. It's why I told you the other day it would be mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 The pattern after next week could be just one of cooler days and chilly nights if lows are forced south and we remain dry, or it could be real nasty with a cold rain and mtn snow if lows try to move up closer to New England. Usually, by late April we lose the cold and even the "coldest" airmasses are ones with cold blustery..CU filled days and frosty nights. Not like highs near 40 with full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 We early summer thru months end glad we have this week to get a warm break Napes thru month end? Nothing but mild to warmth and mostly nice thru day 10. Cold pattern end of month phail Not seeing it. All the cool is modeled over the N Plains and Lakes . Normal to slightly AN New Eng Lots of 50's and low 60's next week and thru months end. A bit BN..Not great..but not terrible if the sun is out I said early summer starting this week which it's been . Everyday 65-70. Saturday 75-78. Only Monday looks really awful next week. I see nothing that shows days of 40's..I do recall you posting last week that only Monday and Tuesday looked nice and warm this week Capitulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Are we still on track for Kevin's early summer through month end? I didn't check much model guidance in the past 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 The pattern after next week could be just one of cooler days and chilly nights if lows are forced south and we remain dry, or it could be real nasty with a cold rain and mtn snow if lows try to move up closer to New England. Usually, by late April we lose the cold and even the "coldest" airmasses are ones with cold blustery..CU filled days and frosty nights. Not like highs near 40 with full sun.Yeah.. Pattern looks like west flow with chilly nights for radiators, and days in the 50's to low 60's, before CU in afternoon. I'm not sure where days of 40's is coming from lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Are we still on track for Kevin's early summer through month end? I didn't check much model guidance in the past 12 hours. Early summer for Oslo, Norway perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Yeah.. Pattern looks like west flow with chilly nights for radiators, and days in the 50's to near 60, before CU in afternoon. I'm not sure where days of 40's is coming from lol As I said, it could be one or the other. Ensemble means also won't show those brief cold shots that could occur in the later period as well. I guess the bottom line is that it is NOT a warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Down in SNE where folks live it has. OW DEWPOINTS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW- TO MID-60S /WARMER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY AS THE HIGH ANGLE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-APRIL SUN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MAX TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY +5 DEGREES OVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL AND MOS FORECAST GUIDANCE 850s look to get around +6C down there Sat afternoon on the euro. Even if you add a best case scenario of +17C to that you're talking about 73-75F in the lower els. I will never doubt BDL though. They could report 80F and I'd only be partially shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Early summer for Oslo, Norway perhaps. 65-70 for one is not early summer its spring , second the downgrade came suddenly when we all saw it coming a week earlier. No one said days of 40s but that is his defense mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 15 years ago it would be Jerry Springer for entertainment , now its Rev Kev Lets get some NNE elevation love at Wildcat, give me one more Ski day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Saturday could be really mild in SW CT. Compressional warming and an overall warmer atmosphere. Might have some shwrs moving through SNE..esp NE MA in the aftn. Wouldn't even shock me if a rumble occurred too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 65-70 for one is not early summer its spring , second the downgrade came suddenly when we all saw it coming a week earlier. No one said days of 40s but that is his defense mechanism. Classic Kevin spin. It's like when he goes from 6-10 down to 2-4 and builds up a straw man of "I don't know where these forecasts for no snow came from". Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 15 years ago it would be Jerry Springer for entertainment , now its Rev Kev Lets get some NNE elevation love at Wildcat, give me one more Ski day how many fires in ct yesterday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 850s look to get around +6C down there Sat afternoon on the euro. Even if you add a best case scenario of +17C to that you're talking about 73-75F in the lower els. I will never doubt BDL though. They could report 80F and I'd only be partially shocked. Well their thermo is still broken..but either way..it's one last day of early summer ..before the mild down next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Looks like cool and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 As I said, it could be one or the other. Ensemble means also won't show those brief cold shots that could occur in the later period as well. I guess the bottom line is that it is NOT a warm pattern. What an absolute clinic in how to safely melt a record snowpack this spring. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Early summer with frosts. Sounds exactly like early summer to me. Ha ahahaha... Just let spring be spring already - lord. Annnway, we don't have a "pattern" thread, per se, but... that's probably good, because as me grandma always used to say, 'if you ain't got nothing good to say, don't say nuttin' at all' Man the tele's and the operational trends, et al, are thick with the schits ...a stenchy pattern foulness that may challenges laureates. That signal does nothing, for no one. Absolutely zero redeeming qualities - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 What's the consensus for descent weather in Northwestern Maine on Saturday morning? I'm thinking of skiing at Saddleback on Saturday to get an extra day of skiing in before the rain hits on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 What an absolute clinic in how to safely melt a record snowpack this spring. Wow. Pretty amazing given the snow water equivalent across New England in mid-late March. If we had like a rainy week with 2-4" on top of the snow, along with warmth, could've been big flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 What an absolute clinic in how to safely melt a record snowpack this spring. Wow. it's funny, I was thinking the same thing. Amazing actually if you think about. Mother Nature could have and statistically should have put the hurt on us but didn't. Lots of folks counting their lucky stars on how this came down gently. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 It was impressive to put up 8 - 10' seasonal totals, 90% of which fell in 5 weeks, then lose it all; much over, lose it all with area hydro concerns pretty much none existent. But I think that's a skin deep analysis.. Quick recall, most of that 90% fell in temperature less than 20 F. That in its self is a remarkable statistic. But the point is, ...the actual quantifiable water stowed in a snow, dictates a great deal of said hydro concerns. In this case, that was about as bone dry a 9' snow total as physically possible. If that 9' of snow came by way of the more typical 40th parallel 31 F affairs, we'd be talking 10 and 12:1 ratio glacier, and that would have been 10" of water!! But we put down an impressive 9' of 20:1 talcum powder. ...Obviously this varies up or down, community to community, WX Net station to station... By and large, the actual amount of water taken in was not that impressive guys. In fact, to put it into perspective, the one single December 1992 event ~ put down the same liquid equivalent amount in many interior SE zones, that had 2-4" of rain, followed by 12-18" of pure blue when the changeover came and they choked on 32 F suffocation rates. Not trying to debase the significance of our history winter here. Obviously ...it was. The combination of cold and snow alone was really a silent achievement there. But anytime one can boast a 40" pack, powder or not, that's impressive. There were roof and construction failures to go along ... obviously it wasn't no water in the pack. But it cannot be argued that if we got 9' of 10:1, that would have been an entirely different ball game compared to gossamer fluff that was too susceptible to elevating sun angles, dry air sublimation, and compaction. By the time the 'real' seasonal thawing warm arrived, meh, the whole thing was easily manageable. The best hydro years are when you drill a lot in the autumn, then freeze the top soil. Put a snow pack over that, then spring rain, and there you go - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 We had some ice form on puddles this morning. Summery appeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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