snowfan Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 12Z NAM fire wx was run for the area. 1-h snow accum panels: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_12z_acsnow_animate_1h.html And radar: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_12z_refc_animate_1h.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 15z SREFs have 0.5+ QPF for DC through 15z tomorrow... 0c 850 line crosses through DC around the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The only thing I would change from this year is to move the snowfall earlier in the season. Snow was great this year but it was annoying having to wait that long to get it. got that right patience is not a virtue of this weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Nearly every model for the past two days has Bulls-eyed my backyard. Won't be as painful a bust as it would in winter, but counting on consensus on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The RR (yeah, I know) is wet by 12z. ~0.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Our friends must be scoring big down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 After looking at observations, I think we might be dealing with 35-37 degree temps tomorrow morning and any snow over to rain by 9:00am except for the far N/W burbs. 1. We are warmer than March 5th right now and the preceding days have been warm. 2. RAP/RUC was also bullish before that storm. I would go with a GFS/UKMET/Euro blend. We will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 The RR (yeah, I know) is wet by 12z. ~0.40" Not looking bad temperature wise either....precip falling at 0.1"+ per hour at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I just looked at the Euro temps and qpf it keeps 850's below freezing the entire event imby with .65" qpf unfortunately, the surface gets to a peak of 1.5C still, it's colder than any previous run, so maybe there's one more tick colder left between this run and reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Not looking bad temperature wise either....precip falling at 0.1"+ per hour at this point.... can one of the mets tell me what the diff is between the Mean-Layer Parcel skewt and Surface-Based parcel skewt? Surface-Based is colder at the surface, but I don't know why.....Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 After looking at observations, I think we might be dealing with 35-37 degree temps tomorrow morning and any snow over to rain by 9:00am except for the far N/W burbs. 1. We are warmer than March 5th right now and the preceding days have been warm. 2. RAP/RUC was also bullish before that storm. I would go with a GFS/UKMET/Euro blend. We will see though. Preceding days really don't have much to do with it unless you're talking road accums. Even then, if it comes down hard enough and is close to 32, it can and probably will accum on the roads for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 After looking at observations, I think we might be dealing with 35-37 degree temps tomorrow morning and any snow over to rain by 9:00am except for the far N/W burbs. 1. We are warmer than March 5th right now and the preceding days have been warm. 2. RAP/RUC was also bullish before that storm. I would go with a GFS/UKMET/Euro blend. We will see though. You'll get meteoric temp drops with these dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 can one of the mets tell me what the diff is between the Mean-Layer Parcel skewt and Surface-Based parcel skewt? Surface-Based is colder at the surface, but I don't know why.....Thanks Well, you are looking at the parcel lapse rate, right? The blue line, not the actual temperature. I think the idea is right in the names, the surface-based is literally a "parcel" lifted from the surface, whereas the mean-layer is an average parcel (lowest 100mb?). I think it is to the right because we are looking at potential temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Really, nobody wants to talk about the NAM? Plenty of precip, temps tenuous at best in the immediate DC area. Northern MD looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Charles Town and C MD need winter storm warnings. NOW. This is one of those events where that extra 500 feet of elev can make the storm go BOOM, very quickly with WSW amounts on grassy surfaces and possibly even on roads in CharlesTown and in Central MD. Ridgetops near Hillsboro better look out, they could pile on even more. Route 7 bypass has 700 foot elev. Congrats! Easy 6 inches. You live in that community in those McMansions right near the Rt 9 cutoff, Rack 'em, stack 'em and pack 'em up. The line starts at the Mississippi and everybody better take a number. My hood. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Really, nobody wants to talk about the NAM? Plenty of precip, temps tenuous at best in the immediate DC area. Northern MD looks good. And the kicker, we barely lose the column. ~0.8" qpf at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 At the least this thing is fairly wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Well, you are looking at the parcel lapse rate, right? The blue line, not the actual temperature. I think the idea is right in the names, the surface-based is literally a "parcel" lifted from the surface, whereas the mean-layer is an average parcel (lowest 100mb?). I think it is to the right because we are looking at potential temperature.thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Really, nobody wants to talk about the NAM? Plenty of precip, temps tenuous at best in the immediate DC area. Northern MD looks good. Almost everything is looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 At the least this thing is fairly wet I will measure 4 plus..i promise you that. Even if i have to stack snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 And the kicker, we barely lose the column. ~0.8" qpf at DCA. Looks fine to me... column looks okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 4k nam has a Rockville to Columbia jackpot. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I will measure 4 plus..i promise you that. Even if i have to stack snow Lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Looks fine to me... column looks okay This is 18z, amazingly 15z looks good. But, NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Lets do this You have at least 500 feet elev. You're gonna get plastered with snow. I am always jealous of Leesburg. I will be in this storm too, even as my car gets a free car wash tonight. I have a pleasant 54 degrees with a steady southeast wind. I'll get mostly steady rain and I'll be outright elated as I watch that rain accumulate everywhere in Dale City tonight!!! Get a snowblower, you're gonna need it in Leesburg! I dont know whats wrong with the NWS. They need to place you under a Winter Storm WARNING right now for 4 to 7 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 And the kicker, we barely lose the column. ~0.8" qpf at DCA. lol Date: 21 hour NAM valid 15Z FRI 20 MAR 15 Station: KDCA Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1017 56 0.5 0.2 98 0.3 0.4 81 4 272.3 273.0 272.6 282.6 3.81 1 1000 190 -0.5 -0.8 98 0.3 -0.6 98 11 272.7 273.3 272.5 282.4 3.61 2 950 599 -1.7 -2.1 97 0.4 -1.9 126 27 275.4 276.0 273.9 284.9 3.43 3 900 1030 -0.9 -1.2 98 0.3 -1.1 161 22 280.5 281.2 277.3 291.3 3.88 4 850 1486 -1.3 -1.6 98 0.3 -1.4 195 13 284.8 285.5 279.6 296.1 3.99 5 800 1968 -2.2 -2.3 99 0.2 -2.3 187 44 288.8 289.5 281.5 300.5 4.03 6 750 2483 -2.1 -2.2 99 0.2 -2.1 214 51 294.3 295.1 284.2 307.1 4.33 7 700 3030 -3.4 -3.6 99 0.2 -3.5 246 39 298.7 299.5 285.8 311.3 4.20 8 650 3615 -4.9 -5.2 98 0.2 -5.0 260 43 303.4 304.1 287.3 315.6 4.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 You have at least 500 feet elev. You're gonna get plastered with snow. I am always jealous of Leesburg. I will be in this storm too, even as my car gets a free car wash tonight. I have a pleasant 54 degrees with a steady southeast wind. I'll get mostly steady rain and I'll be outright elated as I watch that rain accumulate everywhere in Dale City tonight!!! Get a snowblower, you're gonna need it in Leesburg! I dont know whats wrong with the NWS. They need to place you under a Winter Storm WARNING right now for 4 to 7 inches of snow. Someone took a Xanax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Casa de das is gonna get snowed in good too. Get those snowblowers ready there, this is going to be BLUE heart attack snow, about 6 or more inches. Man I LOVE Maryland so much!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Someone took a Xanax only one thing better than a xanax. TWO xanaxes lol You gotta have a good supply of it when you reside in south Maryland like I do. That, and a good supply of BEER. Every little bit helps - I expect at least one inch of steady rain here tonight, maybe more if the CSI rain bands develop over my backyard.. March showers bring April flowers. We're a month ahead on temps this spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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