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Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

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Aside from 2011. This has been our nicest spring I can recall. Had one cold week.. But many many sunny nice days .and fairly mild too. And then summer set in as we turned calendars to May. Maybe we had 1 back door and it was sunny and 55-60 behind it. With the water temps as they are and -nao.. I'm not sure how we lucked out, but we did

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Aside from 2011. This has been our nicest spring I can recall. Had one cold week.. But many many sunny nice days .and fairly mild too. And then summer set in as we turned calendars to May. Maybe we had 1 back door and it was sunny and 55-60 behind it. With the water temps as they are and -nao.. I'm not sure how we lucked out, but we did

25-50% of normal precip will lead to nice weather.

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Aside from 2011. This has been our nicest spring I can recall. Had one cold week.. But many many sunny nice days .and fairly mild too. And then summer set in as we turned calendars to May. Maybe we had 1 back door and it was sunny and 55-60 behind it. With the water temps as they are and -nao.. I'm not sure how we lucked out, but we did

 

Water temps don't mean squat unless the air mass is flowing over them... They are a function of ss stressing and CAA, but reverse in short order when patterns break down. If a pattern turns and send off-shore components in the means, there can be ice bergs out there,...it won't mean a dern thing -

 

The NAO has only been negative close to an ~ 2.5 week's worth of time; otherwise, it has been a positive NAO spring.... Just fyi -

 

nao.sprd2.gif

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And not only that, the time-period where we had a -NAO was by far our worst...multiple cloudy days in the 40s and 50s while it was snowing in NNE mountains.

 

At least we have generally managed to avoid a ton of sheet drizzle/mist days.

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Could anyone venture an early guess as to what Memorial Day weekend could look like?? Ensembles look pretty benign

I would say based on weeklies as they are in that time period and ens are not that we would be in a milder pattern than mid month. Looks typical late spring Nino climo with a SW desert trough, looks chamber like

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I guess WxHype was correct in his call that 80s and 90s are more common than 40s in May...and after all that vitriol he received.... 

 

 

Unless the data is fraudulent or proven to be incorrect, then your claim is incorrect. The data is what it is. Any given year can be different, but the ratio was something like 2 to 1.

 

Rolling snake eyes on one throw of the dice doesn't prove that they are more common than rolling 7.

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Unless the data is fraudulent or proven to be incorrect, then your claim is incorrect. The data is what it is. Any given year can be different, but the ratio was something like 2 to 1.

 

Rolling snake eyes on one throw of the dice doesn't prove that they are more common than rolling 7.

 

Yeah, and I average more snow than he does, remember?  :lol:

 

Hey Minster....don't let recent confirmation bias skew the long term climo.

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Unless the data is fraudulent or proven to be incorrect, then your claim is incorrect. The data is what it is. Any given year can be different, but the ratio was something like 2 to 1.

 

Rolling snake eyes on one throw of the dice doesn't prove that they are more common than rolling 7.

Agreed, but such a tongue lashing was given out that you would think it wasn't even in the realm of possibility. 

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Yeah, and I average more snow than he does, remember?   :lol:

 

Hey Minster....don't let recent confirmation bias skew the long term climo.

lol, you do average more snow than me! No one cares about about happened 10 or 20 years ago....we care about the last few years, the here and now.  More recent data has more value than old data. 

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Agreed, but such a tongue lashing was given out that you would think it wasn't even in the realm of possibility. 

 

No, he was claiming something to be incorrect...nobody said 80s in May don't happen, that would be insanity. However, I'm at a loss as to how having 80s in early May 2015 proves that 40s/50s are not historically more common in May than 80s/90s. One is based on a large sample of data, the other is one data point.

 

 

There seems to be a disconnect at times on what is being discussed. Discussing the climatological probabilities of high temps in early May (back in the month of April no less) should not be interpreted as someone's forecast.

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lol, you do average more snow than me! No one cares about about happened 10 or 20 years ago....we care about the last few years, the here and now.  More recent data has more value than old data. 

 

Eventually you interior weenies will make me your snowb*tch once again...could very well be this year. All I ask, is for Codfishsnowman to get left out...I really want to see him have a meltdown.

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