Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Thanks. Yeah, if that's the case, we'd flip quickly to snow once the steadier/heavier stuff kicks in. Much rather this than waiting for stale air to filter in or it being delayed a few hours. Euro has been locked in for several runs now and hasn't wavered like some other models. Your forecast you issued this afternoon looks good. Yes, remarkable how solid the Euro has been on this for awhile (hopefully again tonight!). The GFS was pretty steady too for awhile, but then went off the rails for three cycles today, and now appears to be back. NAM...well, started way too north and warm, remained defiantly that way despite all other guidance, finally trended better, then too dry, and came around to a Euro-like (and GFS-like) solution tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Consensus seems to be building for the best period to be around 1pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 UKMET looks fine. Maybe about 20mm of snow? Waiting for meteogram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I was busy. I'm back...about to clean it up. Giddyness over guys...take it back to banter. You can probably close this thread after the euro. There's really nothing left to discuss outside of nowcast stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 You can probably close this thread after the euro. There's really nothing left to discuss outside of nowcast stuff. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Consensus seems to be building for the best period to be around 1pm or so. That late? I thought the time for general rippage to begin was early to mid morning. Unless you're talking the sort of mid-point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 UKMET 18 hours... ripping http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=012&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Our rippage window is 9AM-3PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 UKMET Meteogram: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 UKMET 18 hours http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=012&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=018 plenty more after that in the next panel http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=018&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 UKMET looks fine. Maybe about 20mm of snow? Waiting for meteogram. Looks like about ~19-20 mm falls after 12z on the UKMET per the Meteogram. 2m and 850s cross at 12z so we probably don't go to snow right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Agreed You guys still plan to be here when the Euro comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Is anyone observing that high pressure off coast is pushing in on the advancing cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The free wxbell contender...tidbits Incorrect. Its weathertap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Consensus seems to be building for the best period to be around 1pm or so. Lunch at Brixton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 That late? I thought the time for general rippage to begin was early to mid morning. Unless you're talking the sort of mid-point. Mid point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Lunch at Brixton? I'll be snow bound And at work. Wx related...how's the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Is anyone observing that high pressure off coast is pushing in on the advancing cold front? You got a north wind.. all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 UKMET 18 hours... ripping http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=012&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=018 Wow that's intense!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 You got a north wind.. all good Just seeing some bend it the contours of the higher pressure like it was being influenced. My moment of indecision has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 FWIW, the NAM may have initialized without some midlevel soundings: 000NOUS42 KWNO 050139ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0138Z THU MAR 05 2015THE 00Z NAM STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME WITH 12 ALASKAN...32CANADIAN...69 CONUS...2 MEXICAN...AND 2 CARIBBEAN RAOB REPORTSAVAILABLE FOR INGEST.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...70414/SYA - NO REPORT91765/PPG - NO REPORT70326/AKN - 10142...GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE72340/LZK - 10150...ASCENT DID NOT EXTEND ABOVE THE 100 MBLEVEL76458/MZT - 10142...GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE76654/MZL - 10158...FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE72402/WAL - PURGED TEMPS/RH 663-647 MB...WET BULB EFFECT70231/MCG - PURGED TEMPS/RH 603-600 MB...WET BULB EFFECT76679/MEX - PURGED ALL HGTS/TEMPS...PORTIONS HIGH/WARMTOC EMERGENCY NETWORK MAINTENANCE STATUS...THE TOC WILL CONDUCT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINTENANCE WORK ATAPPROXIMATELY 0200Z. PLEASE NOTIFY THE TOC OF ANY ISSUES ORPROBLEMS YOU WISH TO REPORT AT 301.713.0902 OR VIA EMAIL USINGTHE ADDRESS TOC.NWSTG -AT- NOAA.GOV. NOUS42 KWNO 050256ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0256Z THU MAR 05 2015THE 00Z GFS HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.UPDATED 00Z RAOB RECAP...91765/PPG - MISSING FOR THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 While we wait for the Euro to come out, the Hi-res RGEM (HRDPS) is 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 While we wait for the Euro to come out, the Hi-res RGEM (HRDPS) is 6-10". Where do you get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Where do you get that? I got it from WxBell but I know Meteocentre has it but 00z is not out there yet. I don't know its track record but I figured I'd check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 We're out to 3.. let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I won't comment on 12 till seeing 15. eta: hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I won't comment on 12 till seeing 15. eta: hmmmm I am not liking the sounds of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NAM fire wx hi res was run over the area tonight at 0z. Here's 1h accum for h18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Phew, looks like we're OK.. it looked a good bit drier initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Definitely cut some off on the front end but still ends up respectable. It has a substantial gap.. pushes heaviest off like 2-3 hours from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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