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February 23rd & 24th Winter Weather Discussion/OBS


Hvward

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roads seemed fine in Stallings, just south of Charlotte.  Just wet at the moment.  Really starting to cover the grassy areas and cars now though.  Looks like another good band will be swinging through here in the next 15-20 minutes.  Could see getting 2 inches out of this before all is said and done.  That means there will be snow already on the ground when the heavy stuff comes Wednesday night.  Should that not help those of us worrying about temps?

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Interesting. Ratios of 12-15:1. A bit of slp development as well.

 

000
FXUS62 KRAH 241138 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY...

SHEARING VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EAST AND OFFSHORE
BY THE EVENING. IN RESPONSE...WE`RE BEGINNING TO SEE SIGNS OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GEORG/FLORIDA COAST...ALONG THE LOW
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REMAINING OFFSHORE AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

MODELS HAVE STEADILY BEEN TRENDING WETTER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS . A
FRESH DELIVERY OF COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
AREA...COMPLIMENTS OF A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...WILL RESULT IN WINTRY PRECIPIATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

STRONG SURGE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOME RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 0.10-
0.40 ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NC IN PROXIMITY TO THE BEST LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
RADAR RETURNS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW
ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN ANSONVILLE ACROSS THE SW PIEDMONT.

ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS THROUGH 18Z SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. THEN
BETWEEN 18 TO 00Z...WARMING ALOFT(2.0 C WARM NOSE) AND AT THE
SURFACE SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET/ FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHICH COULD CUT
INTO SNOW ACCUMULATION TOTALS A BIT...BUT WOULD ALSO PUT A THIN
LAYER OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW COVER. OWING TO THE FRESH ARCTIC
AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 12-15:1 THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATION. EXPECT TOTAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 INCH ACROSS
THE WEST/NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL THIN
GLAZING OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES(CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON COUNTIES).

IF PRECIPITATION REMAINS SNOW LONGER THAN EXPECTED(LESS SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN)...ITS POSSIBLE A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OF 3
TO 4 INCHES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 21Z-03Z.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...HIGHS IN THE 29 TO 32. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.

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