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Wow

Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp

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Aren't the 850 wetbulbs projected to be below 0C just before the precip starts?

 

Its very close, there is continued WAA though that could push it over 0C again thereafter, but its not strong WAA, the strongest warm advection is above 700mb which is well below 0C throughout the event, the WAA is not terribly strong in the 750-880 layer, if that layer were to get below 0C it would likely overcome the WAA...the forecast is more or less impossible near ATL.  The one model that has consistently had no snow is the UKMET and it still does at 12Z with 850s of +2 the entire time.

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GFS was terrible on last week's storm and the warm nose. GSP had to scramble as Anderson and NE Georgia

were having a massive ice storm and their forecast had them at all rain, so no one was prepared to be with

out power for several days. 

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UK is mixy for RDU, verbatim.  Good front end, then mix, then flip back to snow.   I will take it, got to toe that line.

 

Yes, but euro and gfs don't see this strong (sub 1000mb) of a storm do they?  We may not get the mixing issues, but then again not those rates either.

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Not at all confident we will see 12" in NC come Thursday, but I do feel confident there will be a jackpot exceeding 6" (likely closer to 8"). That said, I expect some additional volotality with the models, prior to the event, so I would be hesitant to cash in my chips just yet.

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Not at all confident we will see 12" in NC come Thursday, but I do feel confident there will be a jackpot exceeding 6" (likely closer to 8"). That said, I expect some additional volotality with the models, prior to the event, so I would be hesitant to cash in my chips just yet.

The only question is who...not if.

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Yes, but euro and gfs don't see this strong (sub 1000mb) of a storm do they?  We may not get the mixing issues, but then again not those rates either.

 

Nope, although I bet Euro comes in stronger, the UK was/has always been the strongest global, it was a little strong/nw for last weeks event but overall did fairly good.  QPF output...and I don't consider the UK an overly wet model either.

post-2311-0-71942700-1424797174_thumb.pn

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that is nuts. the 06z rgem had that bullseye over me but if it doesn't look like it will be cold enough here or there will be a changeover, i'm heading to at least gainesville.  I think they are pretty safe overall to stay all snow.

 

You just might end up getting lucky on this one Lookout. TWC was just discussing the trajectory of the snow through the southeast, and they Winter Weather Expert Tom Niziol just said that the cold air with this event is trending a little farther south and would put Birmingham and Atlanta in a more favorable position for getting snow, which should fair better for you as well.

 

You couldn't be over 50 miles or so from Greenwood, SC. I live in Greenville now but am from Greenwood. I know when Greenwood gets a good snowstorm, usually Athens does too. I know we always used to say when a snowstorm was coming, that when we heard it was snowing in Athens, it would be here soon. And just about every time without fail, shortly after we would hear that, we began to see flakes in Greenwood.

 

So here's hoping for the best for you. I don't think I should have a problem seeing a good one with this one since I'm in Greenville now. It keeps looking like it's going to be a pretty sweet spot here.

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almost identical to where the rain/snow line set up with todays system.

yes sir!  So are they ATL mets FINALLY mentioning snow for ATL?  I have heard as of last night they were not.

**TV METS**

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Nope, although I bet Euro comes in stronger, the UK was/has always been the strongest global, it was a little strong/nw for last weeks event but overall did fairly good. QPF output...and I don't consider the UK an overly wet model either.

Any idea how much of that is from today?

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yes sir! So are they ATL mets FINALLY mentioning snow for ATL? I have heard as of last night they were not.

**TV METS**

I don't know why they rely on a single model for their forecasts. Seems irresponsible.

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Here is another 12Z GFS snow map

 

gfs_asnow_seus_10.png

Very nice , I imagine the NW metro will do very well with this storm. ITP and the eastern metro will be an absolute nightmare for FFC given the latest trends.

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The only question is who...not if.

Agreed. At the current time, I'd anticipate a jackpot somewhere between CLT and RDU. Hoping for closer to RDU, personally. I wouldn't rule out a more NW trend that pushes the line closer to Statesville.

Obviously, still too early to make any definitive projections.

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Very nice , I imagine the NW metro will do very well with this storm. ITP and the eastern metro will be an absolute nightmare for FFC given the latest trends.

 

At this point you just hope the warming trend continues and it makes their forecast much easier, if the NAM is right the even Rome and Dahlonega are struggling to see any snow, thats probably overdone but I could see the RGEM forecast ultimately shifting another 30-40 miles which would safely take much of the area out of snow.

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Chris Justice just showed their latest snowfall map on the 12pm newscast. It showed accumulating snowfall much farther south including Atlanta, Augusta and Columbia.

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Chris Justice just showed their latest snowfall map on the 12pm newscast. It showed accumulating snowfall much farther south including Atlanta, Augusta and Columbia.

 

Can you post a screen shot of it?

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Could you label those?

I don't feel like going back, but it goes like this: 

first row- CMC, GFS,GEFS

second row- 4KM NAM, RGEM, SREF 

third row- 12KM NAM, Euro, Euro ENS. 

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WPC is favoring 12z GFS. 
---
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARP
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A
WAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WED WHICH
WILL CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURS. THE 09Z SREF GUIDANCE AND 12Z NAM COLLECTIVELY ARE
THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THEY
ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE LOW TRACKS. DISSECTING THE
SREF GUIDANCE ITSELF...THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ARW AND NMMB MEMBERS
WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THEIR
LOW TRACKS VERSUS THE NMM MEMBERS...AND SO THE FULL ENSEMBLE MEAN
AS A RESULT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BEING FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER.
CONVERSELY...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM ARE CLUSTERED TOGETHER IN
BEING MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER. THE 00Z ECMWF THOUGH IS THE
WEAKEST SOLUTION WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z UKMET
CLUSTER TOGETHER MODESTLY STRONGER AND SHARPER THAN THE ECMWF/GEM
CAMP...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE SREF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE 06Z
GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORT THE FLATTER CONSENSUS AWAY
FROM THE SREF/NAM GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE SPREAD...ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
AND TRENDS...WILL NOW FAVOR THE 12Z GFS.

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Chris Justice just showed their latest snowfall map on the 12pm newscast. It showed accumulating snowfall much farther south including Atlanta, Augusta and Columbia.

Was Greenville still in the 4-8" zone from him?

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yes sir!  So are they ATL mets FINALLY mentioning snow for ATL?  I have heard as of last night they were not.

**TV METS**

 

CBS is saying rain for the south metro, sleet for the north metro.

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I thought RDU was bullseye

 

No, CLT and then SE NC would do better than us, CLT gets clipped by the over-running really good and we just miss out on the coastal.  This is probably what Brad P. showed.

post-2311-0-86318200-1424798590_thumb.pn

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