Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Seems to be three camps.. Camp 1: The stemwound rainers who think warm rainer that floods and melts Camp 2: The cold camp who see fresh push of cold arctic air, deep pack,confluence who lean snowy Camp 3: The in between camp who see thumping snow to start..a change to ice interior, cold 34 degree rains on coast and then switching back to snow as cold presses in IMO Camp 1 is most unlikely and camp 3 is most likely We probably won't have a good handle on this until Thursday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The deep interior of SNE looks to ride option #3. Thump and glaze. Too early to say for the folks in E SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's gonna rain son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Seems to be three camps.. Camp 1: The stemwound rainers who think warm rainer that floods and melts Camp 2: The cold camp who see fresh push of cold arctic air, deep pack,confluence who lean snowy Camp 3: The in between camp who see thumping snow to start..a change to ice interior, cold 34 degree rains on coast and then switching back to snow as cold presses in IMO Camp 1 is most unlikely and camp 3 is most likely We probably won't have a good handle on this until Thursday afternoon First--you might want to introduce "rain" in your thread title. I'm solidly in camp 3. I'd say there's very little to suggest camp 1. Very little to support Camp 2. Mid-levels will be warm regardless of whether this is wound-up (which I doubt it will be). Big snow is not realistic at this point. Camp 3 is what all guidance would suggest. I'd be cautious on snow amounts both on the front and back ends. It's all about the taint. Note: the above comments apply to NW zones. Adjust warmer and even more tainty as you head east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looking like a taint fest as of now...decent model consensus. Give me some front end so BOS can get closer to dethroning 96. Tied with Leon now and that ends within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 First--you might want to introduce "rain" in your thread title. I'm solidly in camp 3. I'd say there's very little to suggest camp 1. Very little to support Camp 2. Mid-levels will be warm regardless of whether this is wound-up (which I doubt it will be). Big snow is not realistic at this point. Camp 3 is what all guidance would suggest. I'd be cautious on snow amounts both on the front and back ends. It's all about the taint. Note: the above comments apply to NW zones. Adjust warmer and even more tainty as you head east and south. 6z GFS certainly wants to lean towards a somewhat wound system with rain into CNE solution. The front end thump looked meh' on it. I will thoroughly clear the first few feet of the roof tomorrow to avoid potential water issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nice dose of rain on the overnight runs for SNE. Best snow looks reserved for C/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 6z GFS certainly wants to lean towards a somewhat wound system with rain into CNE solution. The front end thump looked meh' on it. I will thoroughly clear the first few feet of the roof tomorrow to avoid potential water issues. 6z GFS was more strung out, colder and more snow and ice than 00z . Just the start of the trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 6z GFS was more strung out, colder and more snow and ice than 00z . Just the start of the trends today Lotta rain for ORH 96 02/22 00Z 19 18 216 8 0.00 0.00 529 552 -6.1 -24.9 1030.6 83 -SN 005BKN033 CLR CLR 22 15 0.0102 02/22 06Z 17 17 227 5 0.00 0.00 535 558 -4.5 -22.7 1030.0 95 003FEW011 200FEW218 240BKN362 19 16 0.5 108 02/22 12Z 24 23 200 6 0.05 0.00 538 559 -1.7 -18.9 1027.2 98 -SN 023BKN090 128BKN194 232BKN379 24 16 0.0 114 02/22 18Z 33 33 208 8 0.30 0.00 543 559 2.3 -19.0 1019.5 99 -RA 000BKN105 109BKN204 230OVC381 33 24 0.0 120 02/23 00Z 35 35 195 13 0.43 0.00 548 556 4.4 -18.3 1009.8 100 RA 000OVC086 113BKN204 228OVC372 36 33 0.0 126 02/23 06Z 42 42 219 13 1.22 0.00 550 547 5.2 -18.0 996.4 100 +RA 000OVC102 106OVC219 219OVC347 43 35 0.0 132 02/23 12Z 25 23 297 16 0.53 0.00 536 535 -3.7 -22.7 997.7 100 SN 007OVC078 105BKN211 215BKN327 42 25 2.6 138 02/23 18Z 16 11 297 18 0.00 0.00 522 526 -15.4 -26.6 1005.4 56 -SN 013BKN026 FEW 211FEW230 24 16 11.6 144 02/24 00Z 0 -5 300 15 0.00 0.00 508 520 -20.6 -32.0 1016.4 50 -SN 016SCT029 173FEW208 FEW 16 0 14.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Lotta rain for ORH See Scooter's post in pattern thread. It's ice..Look deeper than machine guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well if it gets ugly, hopefully it's like the 6z GFS which kind of looked icy Inland with heaviest rain on the cape. We really cannot deal with heavy rain. Either way, some of these mets tweeting we won't see rain better stop being dumbazzes and warn people now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Lotta rain for ORH Now the apocalypse begins....Flooding, roofs collapsing....praying that the trend is south and east and that when the melting starts its because of a March sun, dry air, and temps in the low 40's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well if it gets ugly, hopefully it's like the 6z GFS which kind of looked icy Inland with heaviest rain on the cape. We really cannot deal with heavy rain. Either way, some of these mets tweeting we won't see rain better stop being dumbazzes and warn people now. I can see the 06z GFS just fine. It's a lotta rain for SNE. Am I mentioning torches? Nope. This looks like a crappy 34-40F rainer right now book ended by some snow/ice. Majority of precip looks liquid, right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 I can see the 06z GFS just fine. It's a lotta rain for SNE. Am I mentioning torches? Nope. This looks like a crappy 34-40F rainer right now book ended by some snow/ice. Majority of precip looks liquid, right now. Don't agree at all. if you're taking the GFS surface temps verbatim..that's probably where I'd start to correct if I were you. It's probably 3-6 front end to ice back to snow interior..and maybe Se areas get into low mid 30's for a bit before dropping back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Was initially looking at the 00z... 06z looks better....hoping the trend continues.... south and east...colder temps.... maybe less total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Don't agree at all. if you're taking the GFS surface temps verbatim..that's probably where I'd start to correct if I were you. It's probably 3-6 front end to ice back to snow interior..and maybe Se areas get into low mid 30's for a bit before dropping back Pick your model. You want the Euro? Drops 0.85" of rain on ORH. 2m temps shoot up to 44F there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Pick your model. You want the Euro? Drops 0.85" of rain on ORH. 2m temps shoot up to 44F there. I'm not picking any models as I don't believe they are handling the fresh arctic cold, snow cover or cold water temps well at all. I'm basing this on past experience and what i can see happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Ugh Looks bad doesn't' it. Everything will be a mess based on what I see. Pray we have an even more strung out system than currently modeled but we are getting into that day 4 range where wild swings become less and less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Ugh Translation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I hope Kevin's black magic wish casting works because I don't want this epic period to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 I hope Kevin's black magic wish casting works because I don't want this epic period to endI don't think there's black Magic at all. I'm basing this on the setup, current conditions and past experiences. I mean even earlier this winter with warm ocean, no snow cover and a bad pattern we had several of these that models had rain and they trended colder and ended up ice to a brief warmup post fropa. I don't think what I'm posting is being unreasonable at all. Scooter even said he doesn't see BED to BDL getting above 32. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one thinking this isn't a mild Rainer that some on here are calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 you still need to be honking about clearing off structures, whether you get into solid camp one material or not there is going to be rain / ice and snow load/ weight issues. my initial stab would be all frozen north of the pike and west of Quabbin with many hours of frozen north of 84 with the obvious usual dips in the contours of those temperatures in elevated vs valley areas but that's really speculative at this point in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 One model run does not equal a trend. I would wait a bit before spiking a football on either end of this. Tenuous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I hope it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I may be totally wrong, but my gut sort of says snow to ice inland, rain on coast and then perhaps back to snow. I'm sort of feeling a track near SE MA. Again, just my gut right now.I also feel like this is one of those systems where the 32F line is closer to the actual storm track and not well NW like some models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I hope it rains. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I may be totally wrong, but my gut sort of says snow to ice inland, rain on coast and then perhaps back to snow. I'm sort of feeling a track near SE MA. Again, just my gut right now.I also feel like this is one of those systems where the 32F line is closer to the actual storm track and not well NW like some models have. Hope your gut is right (and that we dry slot at 30F here in ORH when the freezing rain comes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 I may be totally wrong, but my gut sort of says snow to ice inland, rain on coast and then perhaps back to snow. I'm sort of feeling a track near SE MA. Again, just my gut right now.I also feel like this is one of those systems where the 32F line is closer to the actual storm track and not well NW like some models have. Certainly the way to lean for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The 6Z GFS ensembles look a little SE of their previous run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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