BostonWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You just lost all cred by dishing on Barry Burbank. So be it, I saw it for years when he was the AM met. You could guarantee it like clockwork. He's now the weekend guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You just lost all cred by dishing on Barry Burbank.They are both light years behind Harvey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Rpm agrees with me, I hope we are both wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 They are both light years behind Harvey Harvey is easily the best on camera met. Burbank is good, but he sometimes hugs individual models too much (Like when he forecasted 8 inches in BOS based on a GFS run with the SWFE to coastal event), but he's definitely solid overall. Pete is not a bad meteorologist either. Sorry for the OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just how there is a pattern change after this storm. Look at Wednesday and beyond. I see no change even if we got a taint storm. I have to believe Pete's thoughts are aimed at the viewers who have really expressed extreme reactions to the pattern we're in. That's unusual for him to say something like that. I'll bet there are some that have picked up on it (based on fact or not) and are breathing a sigh of relief. Just an assumption trying not to look at it scientifically :-) [Didn't say I agree with it ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think 12" is a good bet for like the corridor along Route 6 between Falmouth and Harwich, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Look at these winds. Nam at 18z really cranked them up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Damn hurricane force winds at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That HIRES Canadian model shows an area of 1.0" of QPF into the Cape Cod area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 just saw the RGEM and it has the dual low idea and gets down to 964mb very impressive i would be shocked if there were not some surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 At 4:50 today we were planning on pulling the plug on our existing snow map and going 3-6 statewide and getting rid of the 6-10 in eastern areas. The 18z GFS changed that. Nothing feels worse than having eggs in the GFS basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 At 42 hours the 18z GFS cranks the sustained winds at the surface to 55 knots (65mph). 80 knot 850mb winds. 90mph at 5,000 feet agl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That HIRES Canadian model shows an area of 1.0" of QPF into the Cape Cod area.Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sorry those wind stats were at 45 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think the issue here is the debate is: Are the dry models wrong because they lack moisture despite strong mid level features? Or. Are the dry models lacking moisture despite strong mid level features because the best contrast and moisture is initially out by Bermuda? My take is its the second mostly. That displacement in and of itself is disrupting the development which slows the feedback cycle in the sense that without the moisture etc we are not able to maximize initial development which in turn doesn't maximize the strengthening aloft in time as they are all tied together. Someone asked what was it about the 18z gfs. Simply look at 60 hr qpf from 66 vs 72 at 12z.. I'm awards mid levels were "better" but mid levels aren't the issue. The issue is The front cleared Bermuda and it'll take time to develop moisture. That delay could be what the ggem and others are seeing and what the gfs started to see and why it shifted south with the qpf in northern NH and Sw Maine by Sunday river etc. I figure 4-8" based on ten to 1 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RPM is a general 6-12 across E MA with 12-20 in SE NH and SO ME. General 2-5 for CT. Yup. I'd extend the 2-5 into western MA as well, maybe a louse more. Look at these winds. Nam at 18z really cranked them up Do you have anything with 10m winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think Cape Cod gets in on the northwest side of the dry slot meaning that the amount of lift will be intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the gfs fails here it'll likely be the result of a presumption of initial conditions based on climo or whatever. Ie that the gulf stream waters are not usually raging Nw dry winds with a huge coastal developing etc which allows it to overdevelop the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does anyone have the 10m wind maps from the 18z GFS and 12z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hour 30 the surface winds are southeasterly ahead of the surface low over NJ. These winds traverse the Gulf Stream adequately enough to support moisture transport into Eastern MA. I think the GFS shows this better because the surface low travels further southward than earlier model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does anyone have the 10m wind maps from the 18z GFS and 12z EURO? BOX is forecasting winds below advisory-levels in GC. I'd have expected higher on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the GFS comes through and ratios are 12:1 or better we stand to get about 9" inches on ORH based on QPF from the map (assuming we are on the higher end of .5-.75 on the eastern side of that range). Combined with the wind and temps, not bad. If we go with the Canadian we are at 4".... a bitter cold dusting by this year's standards Who knows, maybe the damned thing will explode as soon as it hits the water of NJ and give us all a nice surprise.... but whatever the case, it seems to be a damned hard storm to get a feel for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BOX is forecasting winds below advisory-levels in GC. I'd have expected higher on the back end. Aren't they still going for 6-8 in your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Congrats Mainiacs :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's very interesting Ryan. Still can't decide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does anyone have the 10m wind maps from the 18z GFS and 12z EURO? ~18z Sunday the winds on the outer cape, looking at the 12z euro, are >50mph. This is off eurowx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If the gfs fails here it'll likely be the result of a presumption of initial conditions based on climo or whatever. Ie that the gulf stream waters are not usually raging Nw dry winds with a huge coastal developing etc which allows it to overdevelop the low. I'm looking at 1am tonite and there are not "raging Nw winds near the gulf stream" Ditto 7 am, while the LP is by Lake Huron. By 1pm you can see about 70% RH and SE winds begin to cover Gulf stream waters , while coastal is by Lake Erie shores. By 0z with low pressure an hour or two from splashing into Atlantic, we have SSE winds over Gulf stream with 90% RH. I just don't see it that dry while it's developing, if it was developing tonight sure, but that's not the case. Now the GFS may very well be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW SREF's look better in western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 bombs out in NS to 960mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's very interesting Ryan. Still can't decide? Well we decided to keep our initial forecast from Thursday night of 3-6 most of CT with 6-10 for NE CT. We had planned on eliminating the 6-10 contour but got cold feet after the 18z GFS. Normally we try to get stuff out by 4:30 for the web, social media, etc. but today we were on the fence so we held off until the last possible minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.