Zeus Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What we have here is a failure to communicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I suggest you look again.. the 18z nam had nothing close to 1" over NE MA it does on this run Who cares about the 18z nam? It didn't come towards the Gfs, the gfs will fold in an hour. It isn't much different than the rgem. Ccb Knicks NE ma, misses most everyone below that. This was the most likely outcome for days. it tucks very briefly and is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SN- FTW. 3hr precip of 0.1" for a portion of eastern CT.Look at 4 km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not trying to be a wise guy, but why does it matter? I can't really follow..I get 5H, and I think I get the heights, and I know what an ULL is, but I can't connect the dots Oh, I mean i'm just making a point. There hasn't been a closed 5H low with 500DM heights pass S of BID, that is all , seriously. I'm pretty sure people have looked , that doesn't mean there will be an epic storm, I am just sort of clarifying for the record, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 OK yea, the mid levels look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Where does norlun set up? It's going to be right over NYC and LI, this is a rare WSW-ENE oriented event where I think those areas get hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 PWM-DAW-PSM crushed. Everyone is talking about the nam going to the gfs, when the gfs caves towards the others will we flip it to say the nam moved towards the 0z gfs. 15-30" NH and Maine coast. AWT three days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00Z RPM looks better, but still far out to put much stock into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 PWM-DAW-PSM crushed.Headed to my family's vaca house in Ogunquit, ME for this one. Thank god I won't be in snow hole plymouth for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah the NAM definitely looks a lot better than it did earlier today. Overall yes. Despite the dry slot much better wrap around and a bump up in QPF, especially in the east. I think you guys made the right call by not changing your maps and waiting for more data. Let's see what happens from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Clinch, the NAM is much more robust with the moisture inflow than the 18z run. H5 low is robust creating an environment favorable for bombogenesis. Cape Cod will do very well with the moisture source southeast of the region. It will wrap around the surface low and hit the Eastern MA shoreline. Hurricane force winds will wrap around that moisture. In some of these later setups there's good oE type potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Overall yes. Despite the dry slot much better wrap around and a bump up in QPF, especially in the east. I think you guys made the right call by not changing your maps and waiting for more data. Let's see what happens from here.their maps seem pretty good, I Like NWS maps a lot. They have a good grasp on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I remember a storm in 05 or 06, I want to say it was in January. Had an incredibly deep low, bomb out, want to say it was in the 940s at the surface. That storm have me the most incredible snow rates I had ever seen. I was in a death band in Georgetown mass at the time. I remember posting in here. Got 10.5 inches between 1 pm and 3 pm. forecasts were only 6-10", ended up with 17" because of that two hour ripping. I think a similar thing can play out here, models don't always cauch those death bands with such a rapidly depending system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Look at 4 kmThrough 12z SUN, 0.4" Moosup, 0.25" TOL, but maybe I'm just being a QPF queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Clinch and James are going to see near hurricane force gusts. That alone with new snow OTG takes this as far away from pedestrian as I can imagine unless Clinch is saying pedestrian by snow totals in comparison to previous Blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam is just awesome from Portsmouth to bar harbor. That's what this storm will do, the rest of us in eastern areas are looking at .4 to maybe .7 with some enhancement. Tauntons numbers are good with ratios. I just don't see the nam as being groundbreaking its latched on to the pummeling of coastal northern new England which was what we knew all along. Now the gfs shifts east some and we have consensus pretty much for a moderate qpf event in eastern SNE, light to moderate away from eastern zones working down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So nam qpf for bos ne ma plymouth orh and Tolland? im heading into work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Like the trends on the nam and rpm. Hope it continues for the rest of the suite....specifically the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Clinch and James are going to see near hurricane force gusts. That alone with new snow OTG takes this as far away from pedestrian as I can imagine unless Clinch is saying pedestrian by snow totals in comparison to previous Blizzards. NOAA has a good handle on totals here. I just felt there was this undercurrent of it about to drop 1-2" qpf here and it's not, not going to happen. Ne coastal Ma into Maine yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Who cares about the 18z nam? It didn't come towards the Gfs, the gfs will fold in an hour. It isn't much different than the rgem. Ccb Knicks NE ma, misses most everyone below that. This was the most likely outcome for days. it tucks very briefly and is gone OK, well enjoy your meh storm then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So nam qpf for bos ne ma plymouth orh and Tolland? im heading into work... Only out to 15z Sunday for 4km NAM. Check back in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam is just awesome from Portsmouth to bar harbor. That's what this storm will do, the rest of us in eastern areas are looking at .4 to maybe .7 with some enhancement. Tauntons numbers are good with ratios. I just don't see the nam as being groundbreaking its latched on to the pummeling of coastal northern new England which was what we knew all along. Now the gfs shifts east some and we have consensus pretty much for a moderate qpf event in eastern SNE, light to moderate away from eastern zones working down. sounds good did anyone say anything different? NE MA, SENH was looking good on the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Huge difference in 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think alot of us are waiting for a run that just explodes the qpf. It's getting tiring how better the mid and upper levels look each run without it translating to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Huge difference in 6 hrs Wow. Good start to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So nam qpf for bos ne ma plymouth orh and Tolland? im heading into work... BOS: 1.1"NE MA: 1.6" PYM: 1.0" ORH: 0.7" TOL: 0.3" 4km 00z NAM through 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00Z RPM looks better, but still far out to put much stock into it. Do we know if that's 10:1 or does that use some sort of algorithm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BOS: 1.1" NE MA: 1.6" PYM: 1.0" ORH: 0.7" TOL: 0.3" 4km 00z NAM through 18z Sunday. Pedestrian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BOS: 1.1" NE MA: 1.6" PYM: 1.0" ORH: 0.7" TOL: 0.3" 4km 00z NAM through 18z Sunday. nice numbers not sure what else to say, I guess it's still meh for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pedestrian considering its the nam and we cut by 1/3, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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