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Super Snow Sunday


40/70 Benchmark

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The NOGAPS had a SE bias. The NAVGEM is the NOGAPS love child, but it's not entirely the same model so you can't necessarily apply the same biases to it. I wouldn't put much/any stock in it though.

Hi , I was being lazy with that response and went back and edited it.

 

NAVGEM was not stronger in mid levels at least compared to 12z GFS at 12z Sunday . It was slightly weaker actually at 7H, but the precip field was just more robust.

 

Is the NAVGEM known to be overly generous with QPF, I am not saying this from a perspective of "NAVGEM" is a red flag! OMG" but just curious if if has a Bias to be QPF friendly.

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18z RAP finally caving.   2-3 mb weaker with the NW extension vs a few hours ago.  Instead of jamming decent precip well into CT like the 15z it barely gets it into coastal CT in 10-11 hours.

 

The fade begins.  Some of the American guidance just butchered that trough/developed a strong low right out of it.

 

Your posts are as warm and fuzzy as a Dostoyevsky short story.  :)

 

11.8/8

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A thread dedicated to the queens if New England. Let's see if this event is the "revenge of the queens" or "queens be damned".

Harvey broke down the snow totals reserving the lions share for tomorrow morning which he felt would be 5-10+. He also fully acknowledged the lull coming in between.

Yup if you add the numbers up, Harv is hedging heavily toward Tomorrow AM, I think the WAA snows look pretty robust this afternoon into this evening.

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18z RAP finally caving.   2-3 mb weaker with the NW extension vs a few hours ago.  Instead of jamming decent precip well into CT like the 15z it barely gets it into coastal CT in 10-11 hours.

 

The fade begins.  Some of the American guidance just butchered that trough/developed a strong low right out of it.

 

 

It does start to wrap around nicely hours 14-18, looks like a pretty decent inflow.  

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Slightly OT....but I was just out around the yard surveying the depth, I have noted for the first time all season, that this pack is finally growing more durable.

Since the conclusion of the early week snows, I have only lost about 4" to compaction, and I am no longer falling through with ease.

29" avg peak depth now down to about 25".

Agreed. This 2 feet I pulled off my roof was much more of a pain in the ass than the prior 2 feet.

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Hey guys! I'm in Boston (was on my way to Cape Elizabeth, ME), but have a gut feeling that things will verify better in Cape Cod than most of the guidance is showing.

OTOH, I'm only two hours from downeast ME and if I turn back. ..it has to be my final call. So emotionally and financially invested, I can't be objective in attempting to finalize a definitive forecast on this one. So, here I sit as light snow has just begun to fall.

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Yup if you add the numbers up, Harv is hedging heavily toward Tomorrow AM, I think the WAA snows look pretty robust this afternoon into this evening.

Yes. We were discussing last night how this set up on southerly winds is Alaskan but Scooter's Russian analogy may be better. When we get these usually the bl is torched and we have to wait for dynamics. This is obviously a different animal.

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Hey guys! I'm in Boston (was on my way to Cape Elizabeth, ME), but have a gut feeling that things will verify better in Cape Cod than most of the guidance is showing.

OTOH, I'm only two hours from downeast ME and if I turn back. ..it has to be my final call. So emotionally and financially invested, I can't be objective in attempting to finalize a definitive forecast on this one. So, here I sit as light snow has just begun to fall.

IMO, go to Maine you've got a much better chance of seeing a good if not great event there. CC is a roll of the dice, it'll either be awesome or underwhelming depending on which guidance you believe.

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Hey guys! I'm in Boston (was on my way to Cape Elizabeth, ME), but have a gut feeling that things will verify better in Cape Cod than most of the guidance is showing.

OTOH, I'm only two hours from downeast ME and if I turn back. ..it has to be my final call. So emotionally and financially invested, I can't be objective in attempting to finalize a definitive forecast on this one. So, here I sit as light snow has just begun to fall.

Well 3 possibilities in my view. Staying around Boston gives you the city vibe and lots of other people around. Going to the cape will surely expose you to big winds and blowing snow but in terms of pure snow, down east Maine is here you want to be.

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IMO, go to Maine you've got a much better chance of seeing a good if not great event there. CC is a roll of the dice, it'll either be awesome or underwhelming depending on which guidance you believe.

I would go to Portsmouth or Just NE of there in extreme SW Maine.  IF you look closely most models have lessened totals just NE of Portland toward Mid coast and then ramp them up WAYYYYYY EAST IN Maine. Like Machias, Eastport.

 

Rarely have I seen such consensus in meso scale models as over Portsmouth NH later tonight.

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RPM nails E MA with CCB tomorrow AM. I don't know why people are writing this off as pedestrian especially with high ratios.

The board is currently under the remote mind control of Clinch Leatherwood and his  100's of posts . His attitude toward the storm is very negative, but at the same time sees 8-12 w ratio's. So I mean it's a bit of a oxy-moron because I don't think anyone is forecasting 15" for Boston or expecting it. But his  "mind set" has cast a turd over the board's mood . I think 12"+ is still on the Table For E Mass, especially Essex county the further NE one goes.  it's just not likely but I don't know if anyone would be shocked if BOSTON got a foot, mildly surprised yes.

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Hey guys! I'm in Boston (was on my way to Cape Elizabeth, ME), but have a gut feeling that things will verify better in Cape Cod than most of the guidance is showing.

OTOH, I'm only two hours from downeast ME and if I turn back. ..it has to be my final call. So emotionally and financially invested, I can't be objective in attempting to finalize a definitive forecast on this one. So, here I sit as light snow has just begun to fall.

 

 

Go up to York Beach.  Out at Nubble light will be a perfect spot to ride this out.  Should have any problem getting a room out that way.  

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I picture Ginxy having a "clinch leatherwood" Voodoo doll with 10,000 holes in it.

wut,apparently you think I am a Jp ho,said all along and will tell you again, this storm ain't about big snow and if he thinks 1-3 good for him. He didn't feel the last 18 inches of snow you got either,let's not overlook that or the fact RGEM totally missed wrap around Blizzard 1, he said blizzard warnings should come down post haste, let's see how that plays out.
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