HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 you don't know what you are talking about.. you better say it looks better or you get jumped on I definitely don't know what I am talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think our solutions from last night are the deal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Agreed. 65 is really high. Even exposed ORH airport didn't hit that during the prolific winds on the backside of Boxing Day 2010. I think they reached 63 or something. Most other areas in the interior would certainly be less than ORH airport. They will still be very strong though. I'd say gusts over 50 is a lock. Sure, gusts over 50 seem reasonable, but I don't think we'll be experiencing much beyond localized power outages with the winds. ORH airport is so exposed that they probably reach speeds 10-20 mph more than anywhere else in the area (besides the top of Wawa) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is this getting tugged east on the NAM by that crapsplosion out by Bermuda? Good catch, that is probably the biggest difference in the runs. At h5 this one looked incrementally stronger with the vort and slightly more amped but that didn't materialize at the surface possibly due to the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think our solutions from last night are the deal now.Yeah we haven't seen much change from 00z. We've flat lined a bit. Might be closing the goalposts pretty quickly here in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We've had awful analysis from some here over the last couple days and there is no need to post every minute detail of the model. Let it roll out than have at it. You have a problem with that? But a few extra posts from James Is not going to ruin this thread, At least he actually tries to use technical analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Congrats Eastport, Don't need much analysis for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Rgem within the hour will have some weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Rgem within the hour will have some weight. Is there an alternate name used for the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Rgem within the hour will have some weight. Yeah. The rookie of the year is in the on deck circle. The kids have had their fun, now the meat of the order is coming to bat. I am thinking it holds serve, the GFS moves north a tad, and Euro ticks S by a hair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 First call here would be 5-9".... I dont think we will be looking at widespread 12+ totals. This storm will be remembered for cold and wind I think. With the euro pretty much halting improvement last night, I'd be hesitant to forecast 12" for anyone outside of NE mass. Should be a nice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wait think I found it. Rgem same as CMC aka the Canadian model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ignoring the low placement on the NAM, looks like it ticked a hair south at 500 mb and 700 mb. I agree I think we are done with any major moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wait think I found it. Rgem same as CMC aka the Canadian model? Yes, But you have the GGEM as well, The RGEM only goes out to 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 First call here would be 5-9".... I dont think we will be looking at widespread 12+ totals. This storm will be remembered for cold and wind I think. With the euro pretty much halting improvement last night, I'd be hesitant to forecast 12" for anyone outside of NE mass. Should be a nice storm This would be my call, too Gloucester, or Rye or someone will get 18-22" or something DE ME will get smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 A few nam tidbits: Cape wastes qpf on crappy bl until Sunday. BOS -5 Monday morning, ORH -12. BDL -11, pvd -9. Wowzers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ground blizzards are overrated for New England. In the plains thousands of miles of flat. Our hilly terrain mitigates the effects off the beaches most of the time. I took this video on Feb 5th (not Feb 4th as I say in the video). This is Newfound Lake after a couple of inches of powder snow the day before. Temp around 15F and wind in the 30's. Amazing ground blizzard with wind coming over a couple of miles of frozen lake. So I think blowing and drifting especially with so much snow on the ground will be a bigger problem than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikerep Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not from this forum's region, but I got a group of students coming up to Mt. Snow for the weekend. Storm Saturday night into Sunday looks pretty wild. SREF plumes for the area are suggesting 15" possible and the winds look nasty. 12z NAM seems to show .25-.5 LE precip. Anyone have a feel for the conditions they'll see Sunday morning on the mountain? Really appreciate any feedback! Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z NAM clearly shows the upper level low south of Long Island, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 luckily it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Boundary layer will be fine on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z NAM clearly shows the upper level low south of Long Island, NY. I thought the NAM has been showing that James....no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This would be my call, too Gloucester, or Rye or someone will get 18-22" or something DE ME will get smoked Agreed. I think this really comes together just a bit too late for most in SNE.... Bust potential I think will be on the high side though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Boundary layer will be fine on the Cape. Not Saturday with southerly winds into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ground blizzards are overrated for New England. In the plains thousands of miles of flat. Our hilly terrain mitigates the effects off the beaches most of the time. Eh I think it is just exacerbated out here in the Great Lakes and over to the Plains. For instance NW Ohio literally has zero hills outside of landfills or manmade ones since it used to be swampland, therefore we have major blowing and drifting after every single snowstorm. But a storm of this strength with possibly 70 mph gusts is going to be ridiculous no matter where you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not Saturday with southerly winds into the evening. It doesn't warm up more than 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I thought the NAM has been showing that James....no? Yes but it seems further south than previous few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes but it seems further south than previous few runs. Ahhh...kk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It doesn't warm up more than 33F. I think it's mid 30s. Either way for accumulation you want it aob 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the NAM looks great for much of SNE. Really really good for coastal areas. Can't expect big QPF with a cold dry airmass. PWATS are low. This is not a southern stream noreaster. In the bands, snow will pile up quick and deep. Other areas will largely miss, with mostly a sugar dusting. Hard to say exactly where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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