tmagan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This will end up being a SECS imo Gonna be tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mt. Holly snow map for those interested. A bit more bullish with that 6 to 8 inch stripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Good luck down there guys. This has a vaguely SWFE-ish appeal to it. Hope it trends north a bit and you get nailed. Thank you. Stay safe up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ehhhhh I think Mt Holly is too high too far north...this may have big time ratios though so its not out of the question, 700mb temps for NYC -10 to -12C during the snow, that is not bad. The 18Z RGEM is like the GGEM and UKMET on track, track is not bad it just does not have big time dynamics on NW side so amounts arent big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15z SREF Plumes for Islip have a mean of 6.32" with more members leaning higher than the mean vs less members going for less than the mean. That's promising.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gfs? Through 36 looks very similar..... I'd say it'll come in about the same as the 12z with minor adjustments. Still not where we'd love to have it, but we have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gfs? gfs thru 48 hours looks nearly identical to the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z GFS very similar to it's 12z run. 2-4" HV with 3-5 NYC/LI/Central NJ/Southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 not bashing nws offices but they have been high for almost every storm for me this year. 4-6 is there call id go with 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z GFS very similar to it's 12z run. 2-4" HV with 3-5 NYC/LI/Central NJ/Southern NJ. 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z GFS very similar to it's 12z run. 2-4" HV with 3-5 NYC/LI/Central NJ/Southern NJ.pretty steady at least. Not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z RGEM Ensembles 00z RGEM Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 15z SREF Plumes for Islip have a mean of 6.32" with more members leaning higher than the mean vs less members going for less than the mean. That's promising.. image.jpg Do you have the link for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Less whiffs on the 12z RGEM ensembles. Good trends... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Geez nearly identical with its 12z !! Seriously....: 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Do you have the link for this? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Geez nearly identical with its 12z !! Seriously....: 18z 12z I never trust an 18z or a 6z anyway. Once 00z models come in tonight we will know what the outcome will be. Right now a general 2-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mean for EWR is 7.78 on the SREF plumes. There's a couple members skewing it higher in my look-see. The spread is much tighter and believable between 5 and 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Should be interesting to see what will happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snow will be falling in the teens right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Should be interesting to see what will happens. Anthony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Anthony? Negative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Amazing how well the models do when its a more simple southern streamer, its not totally straightforward due to the transfer and this is probably why the NAM/GFS are a bit SE of the other globals but you can see less volatility run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Amazing how well the models do when its a more simple southern streamer, its not totally straightforward due to the transfer and this is probably why the NAM/GFS are a bit SE of the other globals but you can see less volatility run to runVery true. To be honest, I don't see the GFS/NAM being THAT much different than the Euro.....The euro just beefs up the qpf, though it did come down significantly from 00z to 12z, and I've noticed that the euro steps up QUICKLY, but steps down gradually. I think it's a 2-4" event overall.....in general, the higher end of 2-4 or the lower end of 4-6.....I guess both forecasts work so I would think the advisory might be for 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I like 4-6" overall but could see it as high as 8". I'm assuming ratios probably 12 or 13:1. This is coming from the south though so they'll be a good deal of moisture with it, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see beefed up amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I like 4-6" overall but could see it as high as 8". I'm assuming ratios probably 12 or 13:1. This is coming from the south though so they'll be a good deal of moisture with it, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see beefed up amounts. Nice to see you more optimistic for once . And I agree. Everything has been north this year and I think that occurs here. Plus finally a moisture source other then the North Atlantic. I'm going all in 4" in the city 6" on the extreme south shore and central jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Any idea when snow will start near North Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Upton figures 15:1 on average in the AFD, based on temps in DGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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