mob1 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't see that happening with the AO and NAO being well into positive territory and the PNA not positive enough........PNA looks fine, we need Thursday's Strom to move into a favorable position. It may not be an ideal set up but it has some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't see that happening with the AO and NAO being well into positive territory and the PNA not positive enough........ao and NAO are overrated. We had a historic winter just last year with both of them positive most times though ao was slightly negative. Regardless stop with this NAO ao crap please u sound ludicrous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 PNA looks fine, we need Thursday's Strom to move into a favorable position. It may not be an ideal set up but it has some potential.The AO and NAO are forecast to spike. The PNA is coming down from around +3.5-4sd. Even yesterday the AO was expected to go neutral and now ensembles are showing it leveling off around +1sd before heading back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 ao and NAO are overrated. We had a historic winter just last year with both of them positive most times though ao was slightly negative. Regardless stop with this NAO ao crap please u sound ludicrous!Teleconnections govern the weather in general. Yes mesoscale events do take place and give us appreciable snow at times, but for a large area wide snow storm, you generally need some teleconnections in your favor. The NAO is not quite as important, but when the NAO and AO are both in very positive territory, it's pretty darn hard to get a large Snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The AO and NAO are forecast to spike. The PNA is coming down from around +3.5-4sd. Even yesterday the AO was expected to go neutral and now ensembles are showing it leveling off around +1sd before heading back up.like I said all we need is the positive pna for this storm to at least give us some snow. Let it play out. This guy negNAO is so negative about snow and he doesn't actually give actual facts. The fact is we've been getting hammered with snow the last two years with both of these teleconnections against us so that's not a fact anymore. Let the storm play out jeez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Teleconnections govern the weather in general. Yes mesoscale events do take place and give us appreciable snow at times, but for a large area wide snow storm, you generally need some teleconnections in your favor. The NAO is not quite as important, but when the NAO and AO are both in very positive territory, it's pretty darn hard to get a large Snowstorm. This isn't right. The weather governs teleconnections. Particularly when you're talking about indices, the indices are just approximations of actual patterns, created for forecaster convenience. That's why you can get snowstorms with unfavorable indices - there are certain patterns that the indices fail to usefully describe. Correlation does not equal causation. NAO/AO/EPO/PNA etc. correlate with a high probability of certain weather events. They do not govern those events and, generally, index-based forecasting is very limited and should never be used in place of actual pattern interpretation - which a human can still do much better than a computer, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hammered with snow? The most Central Park has received in any day this winter is 5.5 inches. We've busted on almost every storm. You'll tell me that we've exceeded averages, and even if true, none of that qualifies as hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 most of the time positive ao winters get most of its snow and cold around the date of the ao minimum...same for negative ao winters...it looks like the lowest the ao fell to was on Feb. 2nd...we did get 4" of snow and ice on the 2nd...since the ao went negative in January there has been constant snow on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The oscillations especially the noa produce decent winter weather events when in transition.I remember reading about that 10yrs ago sounds about right when ma nature is balancing out her domain . Sounds good anyway, oh yeah talking about big events geographically.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This isn't right. The weather governs teleconnections. Particularly when you're talking about indices, the indices are just approximations of actual patterns, created for forecaster convenience. That's why you can get snowstorms with unfavorable indices - there are certain patterns that the indices fail to usefully describe. Correlation does not equal causation. NAO/AO/EPO/PNA etc. correlate with a high probability of certain weather events. They do not govern those events and, generally, index-based forecasting is very limited and should never be used in place of actual pattern interpretation - which a human can still do much better than a computer, at least for now. I'm going to respectfully disagree with you though I understand your point. However, global weather patterns, ad you said, make up the indicies of the teleconnections. As such, like I said, while the mesoscale events can easily change within a pattern, teleconnections give you an idea of how worldwide weather patterns are behaving. The atmosphere is a fluid and as such, global weather patterns affect our region. So while perhaps using the word govern was a misappropriation of the word, teleconnections, when you have a majority unfavorable, will be hard pressed to yield a SECS or MECS. I didn't say impossible, I said hard pressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 No word on the GFS yet folks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Snowshowers on GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Snowshowers on GFS... still 1 to 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 still 1 to 2 inches Not sure about that...most from city west are less than 0.1" LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Eastern Long Island is .15"qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS 1 Inch City east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not sure about that...most from city west are less than 0.1" LE Yes. The city is a coating to maybe an inch for some areas on the GFS.....this thread should probably be closed soon unless there are better signs that we will get a few inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS went from a SECS/MECS to an inch from 18z yesterday to 12z today....gotta love the upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS went from a SECS/MECS to an inch from 18z yesterday to 12z today....gotta love the upgrade would be interesting to see how the old GFS compared.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If this was the warm season no one would notice or even care to notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm going to respectfully disagree with you though I understand your point. However, global weather patterns, ad you said, make up the indicies of the teleconnections. As such, like I said, while the mesoscale events can easily change within a pattern, teleconnections give you an idea of how worldwide weather patterns are behaving. The atmosphere is a fluid and as such, global weather patterns affect our region. So while perhaps using the word govern was a misappropriation of the word, teleconnections, when you have a majority unfavorable, will be hard pressed to yield a SECS or MECS. I didn't say impossible, I said hard pressed. Teleconnections =/= indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Im waiting for the 20-1 ratio posters to save this event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yes. The city is a coating to maybe an inch for some areas on the GFS.....this thread should probably be closed soon unless there are better signs that we will get a few inches or more. People will just move the discussion to another thread like the February discussion thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I guess i *am* clairvoyant. Now, wait for feint west that one of the models will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Teleconnections =/= indices.Indicies are derived based on teleconnections. They are the simplest way of interpreting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 More room to amplify, but we still need the trough axis a bit west. The GFS was very close for something bigger on Saturday/Sunday. don't see that happening with the AO and NAO being well into positive territory and the PNA not positive enough........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I guess i *am* clairvoyant. Now, wait for feint west that one of the models will do. Followed by another model making a slight westward move as well, and then both of them making a move east during the next series of runs that brings everything further east than before the slight westward move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The Euro is digging noticeably further SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Slight improvements at H5. Sharper trough, digs slightly more, less progressive. Still not enough to make much difference at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Slight improvements at H5. Sharper trough, digs slightly more, less progressive. Still not enough to make much difference at the surface. So basically an OTS solution - everything else is noise. Dont really care that the storm structure improves for the fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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