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President's Day Weekend 2015 Storm Potential 2/14-2/15


bluewave

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The GEM is N of where it was at 0z . Take the goggles off and watch for continuity . The trend is def N . The GEM is insane . You need to see other guidance that is close .

Love your insight. The canadian is going north like you said, trends, trends, trends. Of course facebook will jump on the Canadian and hype that we are in for a blizzard
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Don't fall into that same trap folks.

this has a blizzard written all over it. Especially Long Island and north. City could really also get hammered by the inverted trough followed by the coldest air in over 15 years or more. Winter is here to stay. Cad signature for the storm on tuesday
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this has a blizzard written all over it. Especially Long Island and north. City could really also get hammered by the inverted trough followed by the coldest air in over 15 years or more. Winter is here to stay. Cad signature for the storm on tuesday

wishcasting.

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wishcasting.

i swear it's not. It makes total sense cause of the pattern and all the trends this year to blow up the low and since the coastal tomorrow will act as a 50/50 for the next storm it will slow down Saturday nights system. Makes sense for another blizzard for Boston and Long Island. Now New York city could really benefit also from this. Easy 6+ storm for nyc and east!
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i swear it's not. It makes total sense cause of the pattern and all the trends this year to blow up the low and since the coastal tomorrow will act as a 50/50 for the next storm it will slow down Saturday nights system. Makes sense for another blizzard for Boston and Long Island. Now New York city could really benefit also from this. Easy 6+ storm for nyc and east!

Oh boy. :rolleyes:
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Not every storm trends like its predecessors. That said, it's hard to ignore that every storm this winter has trended towards a less snowy solution for NYC. Between 2 and 4 days out (even less with the busted blizzard), every storm had NYC getting 12"+. Last week we had solutions giving the area 40 hours of snow. We didn't get a flake in NYC. And just like last week, there were plenty who thought that would trend towards a PD2 situation. I'd be very cautious in relying on a model depiction with an inverted trough, as those rarely come to fruition. I'm no met, and I hate to be a pessimist in a thread and winter full of them, but we need big changes to make this a big NYC storm, IMO.

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With the record breaking cold potential, wouldn't the high up north suppresse the storm further south? I haven't followed this storm at all so apologizes if the high is suppose to slide east or something. Wouldn't mind a rough summaryrecap of the setup for this storm.

no the high wouldn't supress it because it's moving southeast like the clipper. The high pressure pretty much follows the clippers footsteps!
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Not a bad look either though. I hate being in the JP zone 4 days out though. But hey I wouldn't mind a 6 inch snow event followed by historic cold!

I love the enthusiasm, but there's no meteorological reasoning which I can see behind your thinking brother.
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Is the set up there for an inverted trough? Yes. But, come on brother. How fickle are these inverted throughs?

 

I am not talking about the typical norlun trough crap that is isolated.

With a powerful closed ULL in that position, it's a classic OTS original coastal with a widespread inverted trough that drops a widespread 3"-6" and then whoever gets into the meat of the trough jackpots with 6"-12"+ (likely LI or SNE).

 

See March, 2013.

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that was a HUGE inverted trough in terms of coverage, we got about 6 inches of very wet snow in Brooklyn buy many in the LHV got over a foot.

 

ULL setup is nearly identical to this.

We just need the main ULL vort energy in the 500mb level to go south of LI and remain closed. If that occurs, the way the GGEM, UKMET and JMA have today at 12z, then I can't see how this insn't a widepread 3"-6"+ event. If the main energy is north of us, like the 12z GFS, then obviously, the main precip will go north with it.

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