Rjay Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What's it's time frame? Saturday morning or Saturday night? Sunday on the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This storm has some very real potential, it's an extremely potent shortwave and while we need to see some changes in the overall evolution, it's not as far away as people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This storm has some very real potential, it's an extremely potent shortwave and while we need to see some changes in the overall evolution, it's not as far away as people think. As of now I think an IVT is our best chance at something significant and those are notoriously hard to predict, much less pinpoint where they'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Too many rollercoasters this winter, need to be closer and see much more model consistency before full on weenie excitement commences. Agree. I guess I'm looking at more than just accumulations, even though on the GFS it's a 3-5" system (or more) for the city, LI, Hudson valley and points east. Whatever snow we get would likely be falling with temperatures dropping into the single numbers with gusty winds, followed by rapidly falling temperatures and very low wind chills (could NYC crack the zero barrier?). Should be a really interesting Sunday and Sunday night, regardless of how much snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Let's see what the euro has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Agree. I guess I'm looking at more than just accumulations, even though on the GFS it's a 3-5" system (or more) for the city, LI, Hudson valley and points east. Whatever snow we get would likely be falling with temperatures dropping into the single numbers with gusty winds, followed by rapidly falling temperatures and very low wind chills (could NYC crack the zero barrier?). Should be a really interesting Sunday and Sunday night, regardless of how much snow we get. Yea getting a few inches with temps in low teens and single digits is very rare so I would be almost be as excited with that vs a larger but warmer storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Sunday on the ggem Tonight's GGEM shows a good period of snow for NJ and NYC Saturday night into Sunday morning. Moderate to heavy snow for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Do you really want to be in the bullseye this far out? I doubt it. Not to mention nothing we see now will matter until the Thursday storm clears and we see what's what. Right now I'm happy with steps in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wishcasting here but i think this could really be a MECS s**t really needs to come together which i think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I love opinions from red taggers like snowgoose. He saw something wacky in the evolution of this threat that didn't make sense on the models. This threat is real. We need these guys. This is why this sight is such an amazing tool for us hobbyists. Without his years of experience and formal education I would have never saw that. I never get involved with the drama (I admit I get weenie a times living on the south shore with imb bitching) but we really need to keep the drama down to keep these guys around. We have allot on the table. If it's going to be single digests cold let's have snow. As much as it's been a mid Atlantic nightmare I experienced pd2 in the nw bmore suburbs and it was the only time and last time I had to search for my car because all the cars were completely buried under 30" of snow. High teens insane ratios can do wonders! 7 days straight of no classes and the biggest best party of my life. Don't underestimate super cold and moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Come on PDIII! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I love opinions from red taggers like snowgoose. He saw something wacky in the evolution of this threat that didn't make sense on the models. This threat is real. We need these guys. This is why this sight is such an amazing tool for us hobbyists. Without his years of experience and formal education I would have never saw that. I never get involved with the drama (I admit I get weenie a times living on the south shore with imb bitching) but we really need to keep the drama down to keep these guys around. We have allot on the table. If it's going to be single digests cold let's have snow. As much as it's been a mid Atlantic nightmare I experienced pd2 in the nw bmore suburbs and it was the only time and last time I had to search for my car because all the cars were completely buried under 30" of snow. High teens insane ratios can do wonders! 7 days straight of no classes and the biggest best party of my life. Don't underestimate super cold and moisture And believe it or not in LB, PDII was pretty awesome too, with some of the best totals anywhere on Long Island!! Although "PDII" just happened a day ago around Boston, with another PDII and 12" storm in the last 2 weeks, and little melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro looks much better. Now gives NYC 4-8 inches..more east..the low.is 40 miles west of 12z. So good trends here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro looks much better. Now gives NYC 4-8 inches..more east..the low.is 40 miles west of 12z. So good trends here. Looks like the ggem a bit at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro looks much better. Now gives NYC 4-8 inches..more east..the low.is 40 miles west of 12z. So good trends here. What's it got for CT? No one is saying much in the New England forums tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What's it got for CT? No one is saying much in the New England forums tonight. INV .3 in the SW corner . 2 for most back to .3 for eastern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So pretty much still an inverted trough deal. That blows. I guess no downstream ridging is really hurting this systems chances of developing a coastal close to the coast and getting captured closer to New England instead of near Nova Scotia. I guess 2 to 4 inches is all I should expect right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Was the December 1988 snowstorm on Long Island an inverted trough as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 00z ECM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Was the December 1988 snowstorm on Long Island an inverted trough as well? Yeah but a much different setup than this, that system was 500 miles SE of LI, this is somewhat of a hybrid inverted trof scenario, I think what the models may be seeing is that the surface low will actually form closer to the coast, they are showing it as an inverted trof but it may really be a secondary low max west of where they have the main low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah but a much different setup than this, that system was 500 miles SE of LI, this is somewhat of a hybrid inverted trof scenario, I think what the models may be seeing is that the surface low will actually form closer to the coast, they are showing it as an inverted trof but it may really be a secondary low max west of where they have the main low center. I think this right, but the question is where will that band be from the initial clipper/the redevelopment, gfs is way north of other guidance apparently, with s ne getting the only meaningful snow. Euro is south with NYC as bullseye and ggem as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I remember someone commenting on the shape of the low and how it was odd in that it was a 'dumbbell' and that the low may actually form in what is the left side of the dumbbell. This is going back at least 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wrote this away . I just don`t like how the models look to evolve this . There is blocking to slow this down , the entire QPF amounts are from an INV . They are usually NE features . For 2 days you saw this modeled over S and CNJ , then for 36 hours you saw it modeled over KNYC and LI . Now it is starting to show up over SNE and that`s with 96 hours to go . Miller B`s with no blocking that pass on top of you " jump " you . They develop just to your N . I want the GEM to be right , but you are starting to see this bump N . These features are usually 100 miles wide and spare a lot of people . http://www.mattnoyes...ed-with-it.html Great read as to where and why they like to set up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think this right, but the question is where will that band be from the initial clipper/the redevelopment, gfs is way north of other guidance apparently, with s ne getting the only meaningful snow. Euro is south with NYC as bullseye and ggem as well.I read up on norlun events. Besides being extremely rare in our area, I don't know if I would want the models showing us in the bullseye this far out. Norlun troughs tend to shift all over before the final outcome, are hard to predict with global models and almost always hit eastern New England, shocking I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wrote this away . I just don`t like how the models look to evolve this . There is blocking to slow this down , the entire QPF amounts are from an INV . They are usually NE features . For 2 days you saw this modeled over S and CNJ , then for 36 hours you saw it modeled over KNYC and LI . Now it is starting to show up over SNE and that`s with 96 hours to go . Miller B`s with no blocking that pass on top of you " jump " you . They develop just to your N . I want the GEM to be right , but you are starting to see this bump N . These features are usually 100 miles wide and spare a lot of people . http://www.mattnoyes...ed-with-it.html Great read as to where and why they like to set up . . I agree, that's one of the articles I read. This is going to end up over New England IMO. The fact that it continues to move north is very telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 . I agree, that's one of the articles I read. This is going to end up over New England IMO. The fact that it continues to move north is very tellingeven though norlun different ..like back lash snows rarely deliver ..IMO .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wrote this away . I just don`t like how the models look to evolve this . There is blocking to slow this down , the entire QPF amounts are from an INV . They are usually NE features . For 2 days you saw this modeled over S and CNJ , then for 36 hours you saw it modeled over KNYC and LI . Now it is starting to show up over SNE and that`s with 96 hours to go . Miller B`s with no blocking that pass on top of you " jump " you . They develop just to your N . I want the GEM to be right , but you are starting to see this bump N . These features are usually 100 miles wide and spare a lot of people . http://www.mattnoyes...ed-with-it.html Great read as to where and why they like to set up . This is not just a typical inverted trough though. It's caused by a massive 500mb closed ULL. March, 2013 was very similar to this setup Paul, except it's February now and much colder aloft and at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 At the very least we're talking about snow showers and bitterly cold winds (look at that pressure gradient once the low gets going) we're probably going to have some really impressive wind chills. There's definitely potential for something bigger but even if it doesn't pan out it will still be exciting from a weather Weenie's point of view (unless you're on of those "huge amounts only" snobs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is not just a typical inverted trough though. It's caused by a massive 500mb closed ULL. March, 2013 was very similar to this setup Paul, except it's February now and much colder aloft and at the surface. Right and if at 500 it crosses your latitude you will bend those isobars back east in SNE The key is where does this come off. The heaviest stripe of snow is 100 miles wide so there is going to be a nice screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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