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Snowathon Obs/ Nowcast 02/07-02/09


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Yeah I'm curious why it's doing this. Initializes about right but then overestimates the onshore flow. Overestimating the low...? Not sure.

I think the issue might be that the source of colder air is coming down through Maine.  If you look at that HRRR map, Maine is about 10 degrees colder than points west (NH/VT) at the same latitude.  If the winds are NE or NNE, it's going to pull down from a colder source in eastern parts of the area... just a guess. 

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You called this whole thing, dude. The lesser qpf, the south jack, the whole overall look to the storm.

This board wouldn't be the same without you. And you have been doing it since I first started following these wx boards in the Wright Weather days.

Honestly, when you post, I stop what I am doing and I pay attention.

Good work, sir.

Well said.  I've been a huge fan for exactly a decade dating back to the great winter of 2005.....  I shouldn't be complaining because I never ever thought temperatures down here would drop into the upper teens....but the snow/sleet combo is accumulating at a snail's pace and it's safe to say the QPF Queens won't be hitting the bars tonight.

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6" toatal 73.5" on the season ties me with 2007-'08. But man, snow tonight is brutal....last night's was much, much better.

ya, I mean brutal tonite

 

I am ok with seeing .10-.25 every six hours. Have not been seeing that since 10 am this morning. Had decent flakes for about 10 minutes an hour ago.

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ya, I mean brutal tonite

 

I am ok with seeing .10-.25 every six hours. Have not been seeing that since 10 am this morning. Had decent flakes for about 10 minutes an hour ago.

Well, Will said the best period should be from 4-10am, so we shall see.

I hope to panhandle my way to a foot by my 40th bday.

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Good rule of thumb: If RAD enters clear air mode in the midst of a snowstorm, you may want to reevaluate.

Night.

 

LOL, true

 

Wait, you think I doubted cweat/messenger/clinch? Quite the opposite. He is a god of weird storms.

 

I was adamant of a secondary/max on the south shore but I'm also not saying the other max won't be north.  RGEM Map seemed okay to me at 0z, but I am really beginning to question the overall amount of precip that may fall.  It may just be a bit early as it forms up, but it's been underwhelming so far.

 

Even ideal CF placement won't do it for the max areas at this rate... 

We've been analyzing the mesoscale features like the CF to death, but meanwhile synoptic mechanism has been really underwhelming so far... I do expect this to change come dawn

 

4z HRR is cooler than the 0z come morning.  I'm much more curious over the diminishing snow output each run for the same time periods.  4 runs in a row now.  No idea if it's at all reliable.

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