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Snowathon Obs/ Nowcast 02/07-02/09


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4z HRRR puts 6-9" in same areas (Northshore-Boston metro-Southshore) through 2pm tomorrow

 

and the best rates for much of eastern MA actually between 9a-2pm, ie end of its run

 

again thinking all this stress about the CF placement is kinda moot until the better synoptic setup arrives

 

in other words, the disappointment is premature... tomorrow early AM hours when the best stuff begins for most posters here

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4z HRRR puts 6-9" in same areas (Northshore-Boston metro-Southshore) through 2pm tomorrow

 

and the best rates for much of eastern MA actually between 9a-2pm, ie end of its run

 

again thinking all this stress about the CF placement is kinda moot until the better synoptic setup arrives

 

in other words, the disappointment is premature... tomorrow early AM hours when the best stuff begins

 

We will see, remember there was talk of excessive amounts over a pretty wide area at one point.  This has been entirely manageable so far.

 

Overall what we saw tonight was well modeled aside of temps.  The focus overnight was always the south shore - gradually shifting N and W as the early morning hours approached.

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We will see, remember there was talk of excessive amounts over a pretty wide area at one point.  This has been entirely manageable so far.

 

Overall what we saw tonight was well modeled aside of temps.  The focus overnight was always the south shore - gradually shifting N and W as the early morning hours approached.

 

Agree

 

0z RGEM ticked up for the north/south shore and Boston metro areas, reassuring

 

And. . . been like watching paint dry for hours and hallelujah... Hull jumped by several degrees in past hour. 

 

Still think this doesn't mean much until we get the better synoptic forcing in the AM:

 

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Agree

0z RGEM ticked up for the north/south shore and Boston metro areas, reassuring

And. . . been like watching paint dry for hours and hallelujah... Hull jumped by several degrees in past hour.

Still think this doesn't mean much until we get the better synoptic forcing in the AM:

CF_101am.png

Overall despite decent accums its been a fairly mundane system not sure anyone would deny that. The idea of a full fledged death band is also somewhat uncertain vs an area of 5-10 over many hours.

We will see, the cold being tough to dislodge has shuffled some things around. It's a long drawn out system.

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Overall despite decent accums its been a fairly mundane system not sure anyone would deny that. The idea of a full fledged death band is also somewhat uncertain vs an area of 5-10 over many hours.

We will see, the cold being tough to dislodge has shuffled some things around. It's a long drawn out system.

 

Definitely underwhelming first 24 hours. But other than the extra colder tuck, this isn't so off script so far.

And I think things look different come tomorrow morning. 

 

I do think we see intermittent 1-2"/hr rates 9am-evening. RGEM spreads the wealth down to you as well, at least 6" additional.

 

NWS map is big and bold and still up. 

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Sniffing bust on the big numbers in Boston

 

Maybe... 8"+ at Logan as of midnight, 10" more to go in next 20 hours to make minimum. Not unreasonable.

It's the stuff currently over southwestern NY that really produces tomorrow... we have a ways to go. We're about halfway through a storm in which the 2nd half was always progged to be the heaviest.

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Maybe... 8"+ at Logan as of midnight, 10" more to go in next 20 hours to make minimum. Not unreasonable.

It's the stuff currently over southwestern NY that really produces tomorrow... we have a ways to go. We're about halfway through a storm in which the 2nd half was always progged to be the heaviest.

yup maybe....N shore has more like 6" so far and they had those 15-20+ amounts on almost every news outlet so we really gotta see that CF enhancement and lift go to town for a while.

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Everything in my area is closed already. Something better start falling from the sky soon, or there will be a lot of confused people in the morning.

new owner started at my work and was putting decision up to me and my manager (who asks me about the weather) for opening tomorrow. "how many inches by 530 in the morning"   6-8 was my answer at 4pm ..... not happening. Has been 1 inch lmao. 1 lousy inch in 7.5 hours since precip began tonite. I can take lull's lol and fits and starts....haha but I have not seen moderate snow at all in that time frame  (look at a long loop of radar about 10 miles due North of Boston) and much of the N shore is in same boat ditto 128 area by 93.

 

I will say that 1 inch has blown and drifted rather impressively and under 10dbz returns I may actually see a few dentrites under the street light which may add up

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I don't know.  Hasn't been as bad here as it seems you guys are seeing.  We've got about 6" OTG on top of what was there prior to yesterday.  When you factor in compaction over the last 24 hours, probably 1-2" more than that has fallen.  We've had steady light snow for hours that is definitely accumulating, and at the rate it's coming now, I could see us getting an additional 8" over the next 24, even if it doesn't pick up at all, which would definitely seem to be a real surprise based on all of the forecasts.  Still cold, getting windier by the hour, and it's a complete mess out there.  Haven't seen or heard a plow in at least 8 hours.  I think they're probably having most of the snow removal folks rest up, so they'll be able to be out in force all day and night tomorrow.  As a result, I think the morning rush hour is going to be a mess on the roadways, and as an employer, I think it's the right call to tell my folks to stay home.  

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Seeing it from my perspective in Rochester, in WNY, You guys will do well. Our snow has picked up for the last few hrs and all those radar returns and moisture are headed East, towards Boston. Plus, You will see the same thing we do on the south shore of Lake Ontario, Ocean enhanced snow! Good luck. What a winter! Rochester got 8" out of this thing, still snowing, you guys will get better than a foot obviously!

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