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Fab February Banter


mackerel_sky

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Once again, you avoided my question, which is typical. What EXACTLY did he say that tells you he doesn't want competition and doesn't like others talking about the weather?

 

I did answer it. He has been saying the whole thing all winter. His tone just sounds like he is not a big fan of boards like these and folks like WxSouth having sites and facebook to discuss the weather. He said as much before that it should be "left up to the experts."

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I did answer it. He has been saying the whole thing all winter. His tone just sounds like he is not a big fan of boards like these and folks like WxSouth having sites and facebook to discuss the weather. He said as much before that it should be "left up to the experts."

You have to keep in mind though he probably gets a lot of weenies emailing him or something complaining all the time about why he isn't forecasting a blizzard on tv 4 days out. I would imagine he's directing his comments more toward those folks.

 

he is right though, there is a big difference between us talking about a system here and someone who has to go on air or has clients he forecasts for.  You simply couldn't go on the air or give forecast for your clients the way we discuss things here.

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I did answer it. He has been saying the whole thing all winter. His tone just sounds like he is not a big fan of boards like these and folks like WxSouth having sites and facebook to discuss the weather. He said as much before that it should be "left up to the experts."

 

I don't think you truly understand who he is talking about. Wxsouth is an expert and there are experts on here. Hell there are probably experst who post on his station's blog. What he is talking about is the masses of people who see a map and declare that what is on the map will happen with no real education and share that to others. He is probably talking about people more like you....which is why you're so defensive about it and it stings so much. 

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I did answer it. He has been saying the whole thing all winter. His tone just sounds like he is not a big fan of boards like these and folks like WxSouth having sites and facebook to discuss the weather. He said as much before that it should be "left up to the experts."

Really? What you're saying doesn't really hold much water. I think you're just looking for a reason to bash him because he's not showing weenie snow maps. He is saying that somebody that goes out and forecasts a big snowstorm based on a random run of a model is foolish. How is that not correct? He's not saying that internet weenies should not discuss it. Nor is he saying anything at all about competition.

He's talking specifically about people in the business whose job it is to inform the public. It's irresponsible for those people to hype up a "possible" snowstorm 5 days + out when 9 out of 10 times we get a minor event or nothing at all, particularly in situations like this, where there is so much that has gone wrong.

His conservative approach has not been proven wrong once this whole year. Not once. But it clearly bothers you because he won't show 20" snow maps and talk about how much snow we're going to get next week.

I wish he would sound more excited about it too, but there's no reason to hype up the community about it when we have no idea what's most likely to happen 4 days out. How is that not clear and reasonable?

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I don't think you truly understand who he is talking about. Wxsouth is an expert and there are experts on here. Hell there are probably expert who post on his stations blog. What he is talking about is the masses of people who see a map and declare that what is on the map will happen with no real education. He is probably talking about people more like you....which is why you're so defensive about it and it stings so much. 

 

I wasn't even thinking about me. If you read all his posts about it this winter, I think you will see what I am talking about. He has said it should be left up to the professionals like him and not to listen to all the other stuff. I understand that every model run is not going to be right and is a forecast. He has specifically talked about people on social media and with websites that make calls like WxSouth and some professional mets. It used to be the local TV met is the only place where folks got their forecast. Now you can come on here and go on facebook and sites like WxSouth has and get different opinions and thoughts. I just think he doesn't like the competition and sounds like he doesn't want to get it wrong and someone else like WxSouth or on a forum to make the right call, and then he might have to hear about it. 

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You have to keep in mind though he probably gets a lot of weenies emailing him or something complaining all the time about why he isn't forecasting a blizzard on tv 4 days out. I would imagine he's directing his comments more toward those folks.

 

he is right though, there is a big difference between us talking about a system here and someone who has to go on air or has clients he forecasts for.  You simply couldn't go on the air or give forecast for your clients the way we discuss things here

 

 

I don't think you truly understand who he is talking about. Wxsouth is an expert and there are experts on here. Hell there are probably experst who post on his station's blog. What he is talking about is the masses of people who see a map and declare that what is on the map will happen with no real education and share that to others. He is probably talking about people more like you....which is why you're so defensive about it and it stings so much.

Exactly correct. Brick has been irritated with him all season because he won't show 7 day out blizzard maps for Wake Forest. Fishel is conservative when it comes to forecasting long lead unlikely events here. It's the right approach for his type of a job.

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Exactly correct. Brick has been irritated with him all season because he won't show 7 day out blizzard maps for Wake Forest. Fishel is conservative when it comes to forecasting long lead unlikely events here. It's the right approach for his type of a job.

 

Wrong. I am not irritated with him because he won't show what I want to see. I have just noticed his posts about the subject all winter and the tone of them. That is what leads me to think he just doesn't like others like WxSouth and other folks having sites and people discussing things on here, facebook, and twitter. I think you have to take all of his posts in account on the subject.

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Wrong. I am not irritated with him because he won't show what I want to see. I have just noticed his posts about the subject all winter and the tone of them. That is what leads me to think he just doesn't like others like WxSouth and other folks having sites and people discussing things on here, facebook, and twitter. I think you have to take all of his posts in account on the subject.

You keep mentioning WxSouth. He has never said anything about WxSouth or said that meteorologists shouldn't discuss the weather or the possibilities. On the other hand, if someone, including a met, WxSouth let's say, came out and said, "Next Tuesday, we're going to get a foot of snow, so go buy bread and milk. Here's the Euro map to support it. But in case I'm wrong, it's still 4 days away, so don't blame me." then that would be what Fishel is referring to. You are greatly misreading his intent.

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I agree that the general public should not be shown specific model maps. I've seen this even at my work where a guy showed me a euro snow map showing RDU getting 15"; but it was 3 days old. So I understand why there should be some control. Now because there are some controls, I tend to not listen to public weather folks (like WRAL). I just come here. This is the best place (for people like us).

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I agree that the general public should not be shown specific model maps. I've seen this even at my work where a guy showed me a euro snow map showing RDU getting 15"; but it was 3 days old. So I understand why there should be some control. Now because there are some controls, I tend to not listen to public weather folks (like WRAL). I just come here. This is the best place (for people like us).

Agree 100%. I come here for weather. The downside is that most of the posts are biased toward the high end of impact possibilities, so it skews my thinking that way sometimes. We usually end up on the lower impact side of things.

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He's a forecaster throwing jabs at other forecasters, tell him to man up and start giving some thoughts on this thing. He was never the same after Dec 2000, changed him forever.

Yeah, If I remember right he was way late to the party on the Boxing day storm and badly underestimated the eventual storm totals. I remember thinking during that storm that this was not the guy I remember from the early days when he started with Alan Archer on the radio station.

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Fishel is right for the most part. People should get their weather from the NWS and respected local meteorologists. Reading whatever comes across on twitter and facebook is just confusing. How many viewers that Fishel interacts with do you think could read a detailed forecast on WxSouth and really understand what Robert is talking about? I've spent thousands of hours researching weather in my life and sometimes I have to look stuff up. This is a unique place, despite the hours I've put it I consider myself to be below average when it comes to my understanding of most of this stuff. In many other places I've visited on the internet I'm almost always one of the most knowledgeable people there.

 

The other side of it is that there are certainly lots of people on the internet making forecasts that take their best interests into account. A big event drives up viewers, subscribers, model subscriptions, you name it. Just like a storm chaser can get famous by getting way too close to a tornado some of the less scrupulous forecasters (thankfully none of them post on our wonderful subforum) just take a flying guess at calling a huge event in the hopes of getting some social media fame to drive up profits. If they're wrong then they are still just some met no one knows about on the internet. They can also conveniently remove the big busts from their sites over time so when they finally do hit a big one people will come check out their site and be fooled into thinking that is usually the case.

 

So yes, I'm going to give people like Greg Fishel a lot of latitude in how they deal with the flood of misinformation that is available. It has to be incredibly frustrating.

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Greg Fishel really doesn't want anyone else talking about the weather and maybe making a right call.

 

Well, Well, Well, let's take a look at the last 3 runs of the European model, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics. Roxboro has gone from 2" to 16" to 3", and Jacksonville, NC has gone from nothing, to a Trace, to 7"! And Nashville, TN started around 18", but oops, scratch that, much less now. I hope you see my point. Anybody can post or talk about anything these days. Pick out the model run that looks the most dramatic, share it with everybody in TV Land and on the internet, be careful to issue a disclamer (in case you're wrong-which is likely), and when it's all said and done pretend it never happened. Now if by chance you luck out, relentlessly beat your chest with pride. I once knew someone in the TV weather business who told me, and I quote "I will always go for the extreme, because the one time I'm right, I'll be a hero". I credit the man to this day for being honest-it takes a lot of guts to admit that. So, I'd love to see it snow here, but I don't get paid to tell you what I want to happen, but rather my best effort at what I think will happen. And if I'm uncertain, I will level with you and tell you as much.

Is he calling out DT? 

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Well I guess the SE trend is over.  Went from no precip to being right on the mix line in 6 hours.  Look out Chicago!!!!!

I've only ever been worried about this storm ultimately going north. All of our misses this time of year that I can remember were rain, not a squished miss to the south.

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I've only ever been worried about this storm ultimately going north. All of our misses this time of year that I can remember were rain, not a squished miss to the south.

That's been my worry, more so than suppression. We are dealing with an escaping high pressure and a very cold and dry incipient air mass. I don't think we get any kind of cutter, due to the air mass in place. But a Miller B and a sloppy mix of snow, sleet, zr, and rain, with less frozen and more rain is my biggest concern and what I would pick as the most likely outcome right now.

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Well I guess the SE trend is over.  Went from no precip to being right on the mix line in 6 hours.  Look out Chicago!!!!!

 

 

I've only ever been worried about this storm ultimately going north. All of our misses this time of year that I can remember were rain, not a squished miss to the south.

Lot of dumb people who think this is going to miss south. Not happening, after the euro we will be listening to the moans from the SE and cheers from the MA.

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That's been my worry, more so than suppression. We are dealing with an escaping high pressure and a very cold and dry incipient air mass. I don't think we get any kind of cutter, due to the air mass in place. But a Miller B and a sloppy mix of snow, sleet, zr, and rain, with less frozen and more rain is my biggest concern and what I would pick as the most likely outcome right now.

 

That's been the pattern of the season and why I've been so skeptical of this storm.  The latest UKMET track sounds bad as well.

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