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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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Central Ct should be fine.. it's going to be really close over here though. But who knows where the mega band will actuall form, hopefully we all cash in.

 

 

Yeah central CT will get smoked...I'd mostly be a little nervous about going too high in far NW CT to Berkshires...esp west side of Berks...east slope prob still in monster territory

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I'm not really worried for your area, sure you might get 12-18 instead of 18-24 but you're still measuring in feet not inches. I'm much more worried about NYC which is another 25 mile shift east from advisory totals. You need 100 miles east or so to take you out of 1'+ which I don't think is happening.

Oh I was talking about the difference between a big snow storm and a historic storm. NYC is going to be incredibly close, Mayor De Blasio flat out said this could be the biggest storm in their history.. so for his sake he better hope the Euro still reins king.

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Is there a stall or loop like in '78? There were postings yesterday re: this but haven't seen much today.

 

 

Yes it stalls SE of ACK...it's what makes E MA catch up to perhaps an early lead for central or western areas that get deformation snows.

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WesterlyWx, well dude here ya go, get to Misquamicut early Tuesday if you can, go to the Watch Hill lighthouse and just take that sh it in

oh dude I can't tell you how pumped I am. First Nor Easter ever and I'm sure this will more than make up for the crappy 4" of snow I have received all season before this. I am fortunate (or unfortunate) enough to have the next 15 days off due to an injury so I'll be able to sit here and take it all in (of course I'm gonna take a drive to watch hill and try to experience some close to hurricane force gust!?) ... Can't even begin to explain how excited and pumped I am, more than I've ever been for any lake effect event in Buffalo ever. What are your thoughts for this area? I'm hoping for 18"+ but would consider anything over 12" a score for sure. It's the combined effects of this storm that's got me pumped more so than the totals as I know I'm not gonna jackpot, and to me and it really doesn't matter because this is just gonna be an epic storm as a whole. Winds here? Think we'll gust above 60? Well good luck everyone and so sorry to the NYC folks that are probably one east Euro run away from a toaster bath. To everyone that's lucky enough to experience this storm, appreciate it, enjoy it, and stay safe!
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oh dude I can't tell you how pumped I am. First Nor Easter ever and I'm sure this will more than make up for the crappy 4" of snow I have received all season before this. I am fortunate (or unfortunate) enough to have the next 15 days off due to an injury so I'll be able to sit here and take it all in (of course I'm gonna take a drive to watch hill and try to experience some close to hurricane force gust!?) ... Can't even begin to explain how excited and pumped I am, more than I've ever been for any lake effect event in Buffalo ever. What are your thoughts for this area? I'm hoping for 18"+ but would consider anything over 12" a score for sure. It's the combined effects of this storm that's got me pumped more so than the totals as I know we're not gonna jackpot to me and it really doesn't matter because this is just gonna be an epic storm as a whole. Winds here? Think we'll gust above 60? Well good luck everyone and so sorry to the NYC folks that are probably one east Euro run away from a toaster bath. To everyone that's lucky enough to experience this storm, appreciate it, enjoy it, and stay safe!

Awesome. Enjoy, man

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Well, subsidence is nauseating.

Easy to say from under an OES bubble.

 

These shifts east may put me out of that. I guess my point is the obsession of these go overboard because it's not like it's the difference of 10" vs 40". The last few years have certainly brought out the banding brigade.

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oh dude I can't tell you how pumped I am. First Nor Easter ever and I'm sure this will more than make up for the crappy 4" of snow I have received all season before this. I am fortunate (or unfortunate) enough to have the next 15 days off due to an injury so I'll be able to sit here and take it all in (of course I'm gonna take a drive to watch hill and try to experience some close to hurricane force gust!?) ... Can't even begin to explain how excited and pumped I am, more than I've ever been for any lake effect event in Buffalo ever. What are your thoughts for this area? I'm hoping for 18"+ but would consider anything over 12" a score for sure. It's the combined effects of this storm that's got me pumped more so than the totals as I know we're not gonna jackpot to me and it really doesn't matter because this is just gonna be an epic storm as a whole. Winds here? Think we'll gust above 60? Well good luck everyone and so sorry to the NYC folks that are probably one east Euro run away from a toaster bath. To everyone that's lucky enough to experience this storm, appreciate it, enjoy it, and stay safe!

Right on the Ocean at the light house you might touch 65 if you are there at the right time, yea 15-20 seems doable, pretty special,hey the Andrea Hotel has a great web cam by the way. Hope you heal and its not serious, enjoy

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It's forming a little later, a little further ese than the 18z, rides up towards the Cape from a position a bit further ESE (36/39 vs 42/45 18z) it's most obvious.  Same theme as the other two.   But as a consequence of finally catching on, the capture occurs faster, and by 42-54 it's much further SW on the stall than earlier runs (not the same but in the area of the others now) and it's a much bigger hit in Eastern New England.

 

If anything all three models in argue for a much more severe hit in eastern New England.  I'm not excluding the other areas, just not commenting as it's not my area.

 

0z GFS just pounds everything from Worcester east.

From hr 18 to hr 24 the low goes almost due east despite the trough negatively tilting? I find that somewhat farfetched. I still think the model is overdeveloping the low near deep convection. The GFS has also been too far east consistently this winter. 

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