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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Very sharp cut off right over western Morris County. Also has the heavy stuff confined mostly east of the city. So my take on this is that the bands will continue to rotate in from the East and slowly die off as they cross into NJ. So basically anyone West of the city should see several rounds of bands as they die off.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

.3 for who?

 

The 00z Euro has 4-5" of snow through hr 24 for NYC.  1"+ out to central NJ.  6"+ just east of Queens.  12"+ doesn't start until central Long Island.

 

Keep in mind some of that may have fallen already (the Euro starts at 00z, which is 7 PM EST, IIRC), and there's snow on the ground already, so that's storm total of maybe 9" for NYC.

 

Great run for SE MA and the Cape.

 

Of course, at this point in the event, I'm not sure how useful the Euro really is, though.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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Hah the euro is 2-4" NNJ and 4-5" for NYC. From insane dynamics and insane banding to wondering if precip can make it into NJ. What a terrible thing this situation has become. Goodnight everyone!

 

Its 12Z run may have been more accurate, NYC may see 2 inches alone in this next hour.  It may be right for NJ but I think it may be too low in the corridor from NYC to WRN LI

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
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:lmao:

If you don't count the NAM, which should be dumped in the toilet.

 

I don't even think the NAM's most extreme solution had such widespread 36 "  snowfall totals as the ECMWF...and that was like 12 hours before snow was falling...

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
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I don't even think the NAM's most extreme solution had such widespread 36 "  snowfall totals as the ECMWF...and that was like 12 hours before snow was falling...

This makes March 2001 across much of the state of NJ look like a folk dance...as Kirk once said...

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Why are we looking at the models while a storm is going on? Radar . Looking good.

Good luck with it. Hard to keep the optimism when your NWS forecast is 20-30" and i think it's truly going to be a struggle to hit 5" (including the 2" I received earlier). Good luck in NYC you guys might do a little bit better ! Goodnight

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

lol yes complain about the Euro. I'll watch the snow currently dumping outside my window, thanks.

Part of the problem is that the snow pulls east earlier as well and doesn't stall out overhead like the Euro had been showing for multiple runs. The storm overall is much more progressive after early this morning, and the stall doesn't happen until you're well into New England. So this was a pretty bad performance for the Euro to say the least-that was just about a 75% cave to the other guidance.

 

Upton isn't going to come out of this well either because of how huge they went yesterday on totals and the language they threw out there. 12" or so in NYC is a very respectable snowstorm but not crippling or historic, and not enough to justify the shutdowns the Governor ordered either.  Long Island should still do very well but it's not the nerve center that NYC is. Upton should've been more cautious and raised amounts today if necessary. 

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