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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted

IMO this was a fairly well modeled event, with respect to certain variables. But many of us, MYSELF INCLUDED ignored the red flags this storm put up for those of us that got shafted.

1) the NAM wavered several times leading up to the event

2) miller Bs are especially difficult to extend wester precip especially with no real blocking

3) 6-12 hrs before event not a single short term liked the euros track of the western shield

People maintain the euro held its course... Well so did the GFS. The GFS had guidance from the ukmet, rap, nam(for a few runs), HRRR, GGEM, RGEM as well as most srefs caving towards the GFS... I truely feel a blend of the GFS/EURO would have been the right call.. It would have kept the intensity for Manhattan eastward that the euro had and the GFS was lacking, yet maintained that strong western precip cutoff the GFS had yet the euro was lacking.

To discredit the euro from here out is insane, it's still the best model for east Coast storms IMO, and unfortunately has suffered a rare lose

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Bobby

Bobby

Posted
Posted

IMO this was a fairly well modeled event, with respect to certain variables. But many of us, MYSELF INCLUDED ignored the red flags this storm put up for those of us that got shafted.

1) the NAM wavered several times leading up to the event

2) miller Bs are especially difficult to extend wester precip especially with no real blocking

3) 6-12 hrs before event not a single short term liked the euros track of the western shield

People maintain the euro held its course... Well so did the GFS. The GFS had guidance from the ukmet, rap, nam(for a few runs), HRRR, GGEM, RGEM as well as most srefs caving towards the GFS... I truely feel a blend of the GFS/EURO would have been the right call.. It would have kept the intensity for Manhattan eastward that the euro had and the GFS was lacking, yet maintained that strong western precip cutoff the GFS had yet the euro was lacking.

To discredit the euro from here out is insane, it's still the best model for east Coast storms IMO, and unfortunately has suffered a rare lose

One could also say that those that laughed at the GFS scored a partial win also. To discredit it would also be wrong in this example.

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted

One could also say that those that laughed at the GFS scored a partial win also. To discredit it would also be wrong in this example.

Hence why a blend of the 2 would have been a better call, both failed in their own respects.. GFS failed on central Long Island, and most of the immediate nyc area, while the euro clearly failed on the western precip shield

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

22.5 inches is a HECS for us bro...we live on li not in minnesota LOL

You have more snow that`s going to swing through .

 

Anytime you end with 25 inches of snow on the coastal plain  it`s Historic .

 

For those NW its historic too one they soon forget  .  Lived through March 01 and that one  still stings .

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
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You have more snow that`s going to swing through .

 

Anytime you end with 25 inches of snow on the coastal plain  it`s Historic .

 

For those NW its historic too one they soon forget  .  Lived through March 01 and that one stings .

exactly lol im going to finish with 22-24 inches...HECZ

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

You have more snow that`s going to swing through .

 

Anytime you end with 25 inches of snow on the coastal plain  it`s Historic .

 

For those NW its historic too one they soon forget  .  Lived through March 01 and that one stings .

 

Its definitely a fantastic storm out here...I mean at 1:20 AM I had 8 inches new and things were boring...a most intense band blew in from the east that seemed right out of the tidal wave in The Posiedon Adventure...and its been unbelievably snowy ever since.

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Messiah94

Messiah94

Posted
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Over a foot here in Nassau/ West Hempstead as well. I would think he Islander/Ranger game tonight at the Coliseum should be cancelled. Snowfall totals are really starting to add up not only in Suffolk but seems Nassau is getting into some nicer totals as well now. Alot of people traveling not a good idea. One thing though the Rangers stayed in Uniondale so they would be ready to play. Dont know how much of a crowd though. Also they could play tomorrow. Coliseum is not planned for anything. Both teams would fly right out after and play road games next night. 

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

I know where I live lol. Check snowfalls for Suffolk county last 30 years. It's major, not historic.

This area is subject to much bigger individual snowstorms than just about anywhere in the state of Minnesota...save for maybe right around Lake Superior & Duluth...though...being on the wrong side of the lake makes it a bit harder than if they were downwind of it.  Still, I would venture that this area has had far more 18 inch snowstorms than Duluth...and way more than somewhere away from the water like the Twin Cities simply because there is insufficient moisture available. 

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
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This area is subject to much bigger individual snowstorms than just about anywhere in the state of Minnesota...save for maybe right around Lake Superior & Duluth...though...being on the wrong side of the lake makes it a bit harder than if they were downwind of it.  Still, I would venture that this area has had far more 18 inch snowstorms than Duluth...and way more than somewhere away from the water like the Twin Cities simply because there is insufficient moisture available. 

 

Of course Duluth much snowier overall than this area...they average around 80 inches but more favored areas with good fetches off the Lake do better.  Minneapolis more in the upper 40's annually I would think...maybe a bit more. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Light to snow falling here back home in Carteret NJ, estimated accumulation right around 6.0" snow has picked up in intensity a bit and keeping an eye on that heavier snow developing over the city just to my northeast.

 

Have about 6" here, also, maybe 5-6 miles SW of you (assuming you're in Carteret).  Measured from 4-8" with an average around 6".  My corroboration of 6" is that we had a solid 4" last night after part 1, by 8 pm, and I got home from the local pub around 9 pm and my car had 2" of fresh snow on top of it this morning.  Blizzard, lol.  

 

Haven't waded through the threads, yet, but has anyone done a half decent post mortem yet?  Was it track, intensity (if either of those, why?) or much stronger and drier air being replenished from our NW, robbing us of moisture, or something else (aliens, gremlins, etc.)?  Clearly, the "storm" kicked ass from Suffolk County through New England with 18-30" or more and serious blizzard conditions.  

 

The NWS predictions were essentially off by ~60 miles, as the expected snow in eastern PA is what we got ~60 miles to the east in NE NJ near the Hudson, and the snow we expected in NE NJ was received from eastern Nassau and points eastward, ~60 miles to our east.  If the track was off by 60 miles that might explain it - not saying it was, just noting the differences.  

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted

Have about 6" here, also, maybe 5-6 miles SW of you (assuming you're in Carteret). Measured from 4-8" with an average around 6". My corroboration of 6" is that we had a solid 4" last night after part 1, by 8 pm, and I got home from the local pub around 9 pm and my car had 2" of fresh snow on top of it this morning. Blizzard, lol.

Haven't waded through the threads, yet, but has anyone done a half decent post mortem yet? Was it track, intensity (if either of those, why?) or much stronger and drier air being replenished from our NW, robbing us of moisture, or something else (aliens, gremlins, etc.)? Clearly, the "storm" kicked ass from Suffolk County through New England with 18-30" or more and serious blizzard conditions.

The NWS predictions were essentially off by ~60 miles, as the expected snow in eastern PA is what we got ~60 miles to the east in NE NJ near the Hudson, and the snow we expected in NE NJ was received from eastern Nassau and points eastward, ~60 miles to our east. If the track was off by 60 miles that might explain it - not saying it was, just noting the differences.

It came down to track. The track shifted approximately 50-75 miles east from Upton and Mt Holly s projections. To be fair to both sides, the computer models began to show us this was going to swing wide right on Sunday evening. On the other hand, the low pressure, for all intensive purposes, stayed on the western edge of guidance until the last minute. It closed off at H7 ahead of schedule and closed off at H5 right on schedule and in a very good location for the area. The problem became that it opened up at H5 and then shifted East before closing off once more. This was also very evident when the Jersey Shore was about to get hit by that very strong band, that just translated East at around 2300 last night.

Edit: I should add that the dry air from the artic high, combined with the subsidence created by the intense banding did not help. That is why I don't like when they forecast gradual cut off s with these storms. There's usually a very sharp cutoff due to the subsidence created.

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