Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[CNY-LES FREAK]

It's closed off now. Game set match for folks like me.

lol, good luck.  It looks like it closed off in Western PA if the Meso analysis is right??

 

[Thundersnow12]

I think how far west  this new, very impressive band gets will tell the tale. Moving at a good clip right now. 

[rgwp96]

Yesterday the NWS forecast was for 24-36" out here. I'll be lucky to hit 6". This is probably the second worst bust of my life, second only to to March 2001.

this will be worse, 2001 i had close to 10 inches

[mikemost]

It's closed off now. Game set match for folks like me.

Yep.... Hanging it up here in MMU. Good luck to the NYC crew. At least you folks are looking at some significant accumulations. The extravagant precautions & preparedness won't look too ludicrous after all. Hopefully the pattern yields some more opportunities soon.

[pazzo83]

I think how far west  this new, very impressive band gets will tell the tale. Moving at a good clip right now. 

 

Yea, let's bring that puppy all the way across the island.

[IsentropicLift]

Everything is now dying off West of where that mega band is crossing Long Island. You can see that occurring now quite easily on OKX radar loop. That should then rotate through Western LI and possibly clip the city and then that will be it.

[Minnesota Meso]

Some are saying a bust for NYC because it may come in at 12" or so.  I say not, 24" is still on the table.

 

This blob should get there if it moves to the NE, Which I think it will.

 

[Pennfisherman]

500

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-73.33,38.81,3000

[beez]

I don't even think the NAM's most extreme solution had such widespread 36 "  snowfall totals as the ECMWF...and that was like 12 hours before snow was falling...

still hard to fathom the euro busting so badly after several runs in a row of epicness right up until the event. so glad I decided not to book a flight back home at the jersey shore or else id have been ticked. had a got feeling it would be more long island and northeast getting the brunt. glad I followed my instincts

[IsentropicLift]

That band over E LI is going to take over and kill everything off ahead of it. That will perhaps graze the city but I don't see it getting into NJ.

[weatherlogix]

That's always been the more sensible call. Throwing out widespread 2-3 ft amounts was just overzealous... You never see that.

and now divide those predictions by 2 and you will have your totals

[HailMan06]

It is not an historic storm for NYC as far as I can tell. Maybe the forum needs to be condensed some. NJ declared a state of emergency. Come on now. Buffalo had an historic storm awhile back. But you know, it isn't in NJ or NYC. If you can't grasp that, I can't help you. You do seem to harbor a lot of anger though.

NJ went as far as to issue a travel ban. Epic fail for us folks west of the Hudson River.

[pazzo83]

That band over E LI is going to take over and kill everything off ahead of it. That will perhaps graze the city but I don't see it getting into NJ.

 

Not sure I see that.  It's mod-heavy snow over the entire island, rotating west.

[beez]

Everything is now dying off West of where that mega band is crossing Long Island. You can see that occurring now quite easily on OKX radar loop. That should then rotate through Western LI and possibly clip the city and then that will be it.

 yup,,,,reminds me of eastern pa during the boxing day blizzard when things looked great moving west from the ocean but ran into dry air and got eaten up like pacman

[PB GFI]

Not sure I see that.  It's mod-heavy snow over the entire island, rotating west.

Look what is to the S of Brooklyn Queens heading N right in here  and Nassau county . Those are 2 inch per hour rates

[weatherpruf]

Part of the problem is that the snow pulls east earlier as well and doesn't stall out overhead like the Euro had been showing for multiple runs. The storm overall is much more progressive after early this morning, and the stall doesn't happen until you're well into New England. So this was a pretty bad performance for the Euro to say the least-that was just about a 75% cave to the other guidance.

 

Upton isn't going to come out of this well either because of how huge they went yesterday on totals and the language they threw out there. 12" or so in NYC is a very respectable snowstorm but not crippling or historic, and not enough to justify the shutdowns the Governor ordered either.  Long Island should still do very well but it's not the nerve center that NYC is. Upton should've been more cautious and raised amounts today if necessary. 

I agree and was taken to the woodshed by some here for stating the obvious, that this is not historic. historic for New England maybe, but that is not part of this forum. Parts of SNE are, but to me that stretches it.

[stlirish]

Lol so much doom and gloom based on models. Look at the radar people.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1KPHLa_h.gif

I agree! Still looking good for NYC...

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[dmillz25]

Measured? Im too lazy to check.

Yea measured

[MJO812]

Radar is great for the NYC area. Bands coming in from the west and north.

[weatherpruf]

Radar is great for the NYC area. Bands coming in from the west and north.

 

Radar is great for the NYC area. Bands coming in from the west and north.

Anthony, I think you mean parts of the city. SI and east jersey are not gonna do so well.

[RUMG11]

I'm no weenie. I'll admit defeat. But this thing has CLEARLY came VERY far west from 2 hours ago. If it continues like this for the next 2-3 hours, there's hope. If it halts I'll toss the flag.

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro is trying to do almost the same darn thing on Sunday. Nobody is going to take anything it shows seriously.

[WintersGrasp]

Hmm....lol this one's done.....I guess lets just try to laugh about it. Nothing's going to turn it into anything big for NJ

[IsentropicLift]

It's really trying to push West, I just think it's too little too late.

[TwcMan]

It's really trying to push West, I just think it's too little too late.

Serious question.

What happened? Was it that dry pocket of air entrenched over NJ? Or the H5 didn't close off quick enough?

[kevbo81]

the radar is looking more intense for long island as bands move in from the south

[beez]

It's really trying to push West, I just think it's too little too late.

 its running into too much dry air. reminds me of the boxing day blizzard when the precip seemed to run into a wall once it got into pa. its a shame. I really thought at least the jersey shore would get pummeled. feel bad for you guys up there that love blizzards as much as I do

[Minnesota Meso]

Nice band setting up about to impact SW LI and possibly NYC in the next half hour of so.  DBZ approaching 40

 

[HailMan06]

The Euro is trying to do almost the same darn thing on Sunday. Nobody is going to take anything it shows seriously.

Please not again. I don't think I can take anymore of this.

[mikemost]

Serious question.

What happened? Was it that dry pocket of air entrenched over NJ? Or the H5 didn't close off quick enough?

Assuming you're speaking for the NJ folk... My amateur opinion is a little bit of both. Closing off late was definitely an issue. That most certainly limited some of the forcing, and the blooming of the precipitation field to the northwest. I also think that the storm pulled in a good amount of dry air from the high pressure system to the north... That probably caused a good deal of evaporation of moisture which could have been useful for us.