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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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rickrd

rickrd

Posted
Posted

JB just posted that GFS has won this one.

 

"The GFS is the projected winner in NYC. The WRF that went ape at 18z has backed down. Th GFS is in now and keeps the heavy snow east of the city.There has already been 3-6 inches in NYC, and it will likely be doubled when its done, but this is a great feather in the cap of the GFS"

Sorry. but I thought I'd pass it on.

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weatherlogix

weatherlogix

Posted
Posted

JB just posted that GFS has won this one.

 

"The GFS is the projected winner in NYC. The WRF that went ape at 18z has backed down. Th GFS is in now and keeps the heavy snow east of the city.There has already been 3-6 inches in NYC, and it will likely be doubled when its done, but this is a great feather in the cap of the GFS"

Sorry. but I thought I'd pass it on.

 

LOL - it wont be right again all winter

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

JB just posted that GFS has won this one.

 

"The GFS is the projected winner in NYC. The WRF that went ape at 18z has backed down. Th GFS is in now and keeps the heavy snow east of the city.There has already been 3-6 inches in NYC, and it will likely be doubled when its done, but this is a great feather in the cap of the GFS"

Sorry. but I thought I'd pass it on.

 

 

JB just posted that GFS has won this one.

 

"The GFS is the projected winner in NYC. The WRF that went ape at 18z has backed down. Th GFS is in now and keeps the heavy snow east of the city.There has already been 3-6 inches in NYC, and it will likely be doubled when its done, but this is a great feather in the cap of the GFS"

Sorry. but I thought I'd pass it on.

So who is left that isn't at least hedging? Not NWS, they are sending signals. Steve D? DT?

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Computer Guy

Computer Guy

Posted
Posted

 

probably explains why the radar just falls apart when it hits jersey.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

So who is left that isn't at least hedging? Not NWS, they are sending signals. Steve D? DT?

I think some mets are thinking "ah what the heck.....might as well not back down.....I'll get bashed regardless"

Despite the optimism (not sure why exactly), this storm is a bust of epic proportions. 20-30" is in our forecast under a Blizzard Warning.

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rygar

rygar

Posted
Posted

I can faintly see the moon through the clouds. The westward progress being so slow and unsteady is painful to watch. Still time but the clock is ticking.

 

This late in the progression of the storm, I just told my kids the visible moon is a kiss of death.  We'll get some snow tonight, but very little confidence in the latest NOAA forecast of about 14 for our area.

 

Good news, if you want to stretch it, the weenie intellicast radar continues to show west progression

 

bgm_None_anim.gif

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negative-nao

negative-nao

Posted
Posted

More to look forward too

 

DECREASING SUNSHINE AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES. THERE IS GOOD MODELING
CONSENSUS OF MID LEVEL OMEGA AND QVEC CONVERGENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVING BY 00Z. GIVEN THAT THE WAA PHASE LIKES TO SNEAK IN EARLY,
WE KEPT PCPN CHANCES IN FOR LATE IN THE DAY. PTYPE SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY SNOW. SOME MIXING BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS ABOVE ZERO
MIGHT OCCUR FAR SE.

THE BULK OF THE CLIPPER PCPN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT NIGHT. ASSUMING
IT DOES NOT ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE, ITS APPEARING TO
BE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA TYPE EVENT SNOW. PCPN SHOULD
END BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WINDIER DAY IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM`S
COLD FRONT.

COLDER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVES EASTWARD. WE THEN REPEAT THE PROCESS
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE AND
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT. THIS ONE COULD TAP GULFMEX MOISTURE
AND THUS BE A SNOWIER SYSTEM.

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NYStorm

NYStorm

Posted
Posted

I almost want it to dump on NYC solely to rid of the downers here...

Amazing how this place has become a place of wishcasters. Why are people who are using objective evidence that this may not turn out to dump the 20"-30" forecasts labeled "downers"? It is looking more and more like they are going to be right. Not to say that NYC and surrounding won't get a good foot or so. But jeesh ...

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