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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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BL03

BL03

Posted
Posted

Based on current upper air obs I'm still optimistic for NYC, as it seems that the precip *should* still push west of nyc but might not be into nj/pa border.   Now till 2-4am will be telling, of course but this is a unique set-up.  The capture and stall/loop de loop is still possible and that is hard to foresee.   Try to enjoy this folks... winter was lame before this.  At least we have a historic event to track. 

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

A lot of high-fiving about WNE and NYC missing out over in the NE thread. Storm is in its very early stages so I am surprised to see that based off two crappy models, one of which is a global and could not possibly handle the mesoscale dynamics of this storm. I still believe the Euro will end up verifying.

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weatherlogix

weatherlogix

Posted
Posted

NAM dropped the ball. RGEM is somewhat more optimistic verbatim but initializes 100 miles east of actual low from satellite imagery. 500-mb center has not cut off yet, will around 06z south of western LI. Surface low is clearly drifting north rather than northeast. Radar intermittently improving and filling west.

 

Overall would have to say reason for some optimism here that 15-25 inch totals can be achieved in NYC, some parts of n NJ although some parts of NJ and e PA are going to fall short. Long Island still very much in line to get major amounts 25-40 and heavy drifting. Winds are only two-thirds of the way to peak.

 

Would currently favor RGEM with 50 mile retrograde on 12z surface low position. Maybe GFS will finally work this out.

 

Slight chance of something very rare like a tight loop south of Long Island, capture may be messy given the chaos between the broad upper trough and the polar front. If that loop is long and wide enough, mega amounts could still develop.

the 0Z RGEM has about 8mm of precip for Nassau cty. The RGEM has no meaningful precip outside of SNE

 

its is so abundantly clear this is over for almost everyone....long live the king.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

A lot of high-fiving about WNE and NYC missing out over in the NE thread. Storm is in its very early stages so I am surprised to see that based off two crappy models, one of which is a global and could not possibly handle the mesoscale dynamics of this storm. I still believe the Euro will end up verifying.

Who is high fiving? Its going to be close, hopefully euro scores big

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Bobby

Bobby

Posted
Posted

That band that passed through Suffolk county was much more impressive looking on radar than in person. Hardly "Mega" or half the other terms attached to it. As far as westward progression I don't see it happening. I think the city struggles to make 18 and Suffolk County E of the Sag should see 18-24. I don't see 30 happening at this point based on Radar, latest runs and pure observation. Quite a few members W Queens/NYC may very well be swinging by tomorrow morning. Hope for you guys this is not the case. Strange storm with what I feel will be a strange outcome.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

 

Mt Holly snippet
 
WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM
EARLIER TODAY AS WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN INTO THE HEAVIEST SNOW PERIOD
YET. HOWEVER, THE LATEST NAM HAS CUT BACK ON ITS SNOW TOTALS AND
IS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. SO WE HAVE CUT BACK TOTALS
SOME ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE WILL WAIT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES UNTIL
WE GET MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE STORM AND HAVE ALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND DECREASING SOUTH AND WEST FROM THERE.
 

 

 

 

Mt Holly snippet
 
WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM
EARLIER TODAY AS WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN INTO THE HEAVIEST SNOW PERIOD
YET. HOWEVER, THE LATEST NAM HAS CUT BACK ON ITS SNOW TOTALS AND
IS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. SO WE HAVE CUT BACK TOTALS
SOME ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE WILL WAIT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES UNTIL
WE GET MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE STORM AND HAVE ALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND DECREASING SOUTH AND WEST FROM THERE.
 

 

 

 

 

Mt Holly snippet
 
WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM
EARLIER TODAY AS WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN INTO THE HEAVIEST SNOW PERIOD
YET. HOWEVER, THE LATEST NAM HAS CUT BACK ON ITS SNOW TOTALS AND
IS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. SO WE HAVE CUT BACK TOTALS
SOME ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE WILL WAIT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES UNTIL
WE GET MORE INTO THE HEART OF THE STORM AND HAVE ALL THE 00Z
GUIDANCE IN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND DECREASING SOUTH AND WEST FROM THERE.
 

 

Sounds fair enough. I respect that they are being honest. They are going to wait before making big changes. That means they are prepared to do so, but are waiting on confirmation from guidance as well as watching what the storm is doing. But it also does not sound confident. I can appreciate that. 

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weatherweather

weatherweather

Posted
Posted

So many negative posts - I'm not sure whether people are hoping to have their negative thoughts refuted or attempting to try reverse psychology on a snowstorm.  Look, its clear this wont be an epic storm but look at the radar - its still pushing west and will continue to snow for at least 12 more hours.  There is no reason for the precip to shrink east before then once its reached your area.  12 inches is not out of the question for anyone on this subform and 20 is still in the cards for eastern sections.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

the 0Z RGEM has about 8mm of precip for Nassau cty. The RGEM has no meaningful precip outside of SNE

 

its is so abundantly clear this is over for almost everyone....long live the king.

Very heavy snow is entering Nassau County and still coming west. Suffolk is getting hammered. The RGEM is going to bust, sorry. 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted

So many negative posts - I'm not sure whether people are hoping to have their negative thoughts refuted or attempting to try reverse psychology on a snowstorm.  Look, its clear this wont be an epic storm but look at the radar - its still pushing west and will continue to snow for at least 12 more hours.  There is no reason for the precip to shrink east before then once its reached your area.  12 inches is not out of the question for anyone on this subform and 20 is still in the cards for eastern sections.

Ok, I can buy the 12 inches. I am confident central NJ won't see 20. I owe you a meal from the dollar menu at the Golden Arches if totals get to 20.

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RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted

Wherever this thing parks it's going to dump. For hours. It's still trending west. I think philly is snubbed but this thing still has a lot of motion westward. Jersey shore and NYC should still do okay. West from there is a though. I just don't know how much further it has in it to move west before settling. Agonizing waiting game.

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