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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

The banding over Suffolk County is pushing westward nicely and should keep doing so for another couple of hours. That would likely get heavy snow past NYC. From there it should pivot overhead for quite a while before it heads east tomorrow morning. Heavy snow is already just off the beaches of NJ. People need to stop panicking and just pay attention to obs. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

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38e9ccb88cf65c0100eacaca05811a53.jpg

The NAM is going to end up just being the NAM.....pretty much shuts down chances of a big snowstorm in jersey. More and more cards are on the table, and none other than the NAM support the huge snowstorm (for NJ at least....NYC east can still see a foot of snow). I hate to be so blunt, but model data is what is used for forecasts. Today I've seen a lot of "it's coming : it looks beautiful".....and ignoring the models, the very things the pros use to make the forecasts. This one does look beautiful, but it's just not ours.

With all due respect, pros use models as guidance, not as gospel however. Upton is all in and they are the pros. The NAM and the Euro have had the best handles with this storm. The storm is exploding and is still developing. H7 is closed off. H5 is extremely negative. H3 jet streaks are perfect. The storm is not over until it has passed us.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

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With all due respect, pros use models as guidance, not as gospel however. Upton is all in and they are the pros. The NAM and the Euro have had the best handles with this storm. The storm is exploding and is still developing. H7 is closed off. H5 is extremely negative. H3 jet streaks are perfect. The storm is not over until it has passed us.

I understand. I have all the respect in the world for them and for the pro mets, however this situation has truly just left me puzzled. I posted in the banter my reasoning and it is mainly questions that I have. Support for an extreme situation from only the worst model and suddenly all in with almost all other reliable models disregarded.....that is what my confusion stems from. Just the "why?" Of it all

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weatherlogix

weatherlogix

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With all due respect, pros use models as guidance, not as gospel however. Upton is all in and they are the pros. The NAM and the Euro have had the best handles with this storm. The storm is exploding and is still developing. H7 is closed off. H5 is extremely negative. H3 jet streaks are perfect. The storm is not over until it has passed us.

why have they had the best handle? Because they showed the most snow? the NAM is the biggest piece of crap model ever....the fact that it was the one showing this should have been a red flag

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jm1220

jm1220

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NAM is 1.5"+ east of Farmingdale, 1"+ east of LGA, 0.75" to Central Park and spots of 2" over Suffolk County. It has a very tight western gradient, which was always expected with this storm. The people panicking right now should be in western NJ and Philly, not NYC which already has 5". 0.75" more could get Central Park to 15" for the storm with ratios. 

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

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The NAM will always be the NAM. That's why I didn't comment this morning when it went ballistic and I won't now beyond this. Just watch the radar and see what happens. It might already be close to busting with the heavy banding about to hit the NJ coast.

Yeah I'm not bothering with the NAM. It looks like two meso bands are about to hit NYC with more heavy precip afterwards. This is in all essence a nowcast. We can pick up the total NAM precip while under a band or two. Let the storm roll. NJ is in a different situation than NYC. NYC looks to be in a good spot. NJ may have some trouble but looks like precip is starting to envelop the area. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

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why have they had the best handle? Because they showed the most snow? the NAM is the biggest piece of crap model ever....the fact that it was the one showing this should have been a red flag

It had the best handle because it was verifying. It initialized correctly and had the handle for the best dynamics.
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