Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

[Superstorm93]

[Neblizzard]

Seems like the westward expansion has halted somewhat in the past half hour. Let's see where we are at at 10pm.

[Amped]

Line off the jersey shore that  was killing precip appears to be being shoved back west now.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I'm really worried about anyone North or west of the city...precip expansion was well ito our area on the nam and euro by now...

[wkd]

Ohh okay, all good. I don't think even the NAM closed off at H5 until 3, 4, or 5z anyway.

 

I guess all sources used software generated maps based on prior runs of a model.  I was hoping they were realtime from aircraft.

 

SPC must use a different source than Superstorm93's source.

[rgwp96]

If you want to see why UPTON went with the NAM please put the 18z NAM @ 0z next to the 12z Euro @  0z and look at what has fallen by 7pm and you tell me who is closer . Its not close ... 4 to 6 is already down right  where the NAM said  it would .

nam is way off as it had precip reaching pa at this time. actually matches the euro.

[EasternLI]

H5 @ 00z

 

 

 

[Superstorm93]

I guess all sources used software generated maps based on prior runs of a model.  I was hoping they were realtime from aircraft.

 

SPC must use a different source than Superstorm93's source.

 

They are the same. I have my height increments set to a different value (30 meters), so that's why it showed up. 

 

Additionally, that was 700mb and not 500mb. 

[IsentropicLift]

The NAM ramps up after 00z. We'll see what happens. SREF's soon.

[Superstorm93]

Where is the forcing? Radar returns diminishing as the precip moves west...just like the GFS.

 

There is none...for now 

 

Precip hasn't been able to back into NJ yet, but we have a little bit of time before things start to get a bit more dicey. 

 

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

The NAM ramps up after 00z. We'll see what happens. SREF's soon.

Nam is already wrong in terms of westward precip

[weatherweather]

dt just updated on FB seems pretty confident the radar will still shift SW

[PB GFI]

nam is way off as it had precip reaching pa at this time. actually matches the euro.

0Z 7PM - 3-5 fell across Long Island and  the 5 boroughs . The Euro at that time was .1

 

Can`t upload the map . look at the 18z NAM hour 6 0z . Was perfect an hour ago .

[Animal]

Nam is already wrong in terms of westward precip

If nothing in next 60 minutes, we have a problem

[rgwp96]

0Z 7PM - 3-5 fell across Long Island and  the 5 boroughs . The Euro at that time was .1

 

Can`t upload the map . look at the 18z NAM hour 6 0z . Was perfect an hour ago .

come on no model had that band that formed on some sort of front. the nam got it right for the wrong reasons

[yhbrooklyn]

Mass suicides live @ 10pm on Channel X.

[Superstorm93]

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

If nothing in next 60 minutes, we have a problem

If precip continues to die off at the CT border I'm convinced the nam and euro overdid the western extent and the short terms are correct

[Computer Guy]

looks like the precip is hitting a wall per the radar.  let's see how this pans out over the next hour or so.  

[weatherweather]

Can you provide a link please???

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

[PB GFI]

Patience

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

[wkd]

They are the same. I have my height increments set to a different value (30 meters), so that's why it showed up. 

 

Additionally, that was 700mb and not 500mb. 

 SPC at 00Z still doesn't show closure at 700mb with their algorithm.. I prefer your map anyway.

[swamplover56]

looks like the precip is hitting a wall per the radar. let's see how this pans out over the next hour or so.

Why is it not extending further west? Seems like the precip shield looks good and the city should be enveloped but it just stops

[Superstorm93]

700mb.gif

 SPC at 00Z still doesn't show closure at 700mb with their algorithm.. I prefer your map anyway.

 

Here's what I'm working with for posterity reasons. 

 

[Animal]

If precip continues to die off at the CT border I'm convinced the nam and euro overdid the western extent and the short terms are correct

Amazing how the precip just dies off.

[Morris]

I think this thread should be locked and everything should be posted in the OBS thread.

[SnowDemon]

Patience

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

 

This!

 

If you're looking at the radar, you can clearly see the push west and the rotation of the storm.

[donsutherland1]

This!

 

If you're looking at the radar, you can clearly see the push west and the rotation of the storm.

Not to mention the radar will also fill in as the storm develops.

[USCG RS]

what time will NWS start scaling back? 11PM package?

http://www.weather.gov/okx/stormtotalsnow

Patience my friend. Things are on track, but the storm is moving a touch slower. Great for capturing purposes, but agony as we wait for the storm to explode. It will be worth it...

[IsentropicLift]

At first glance 21z SREF mean looks wetter