Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hurricane went with NWS numbers, but he sounded like he had low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll take that 6-8" in a heartbeat the way things look right now. I saw the sun almost peak through on my way home from work just now. When is the precip really supposed to start getting slung in off the Atlantic? It looked somewhat impressive about 2 hours ago but has since looked more disorganized. We seem to have all the ingredients except for the actual snow. Really would like to see the radar start filling in/getting busy. Hopefully it will happen soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 More than a tad... considering at least 1 run I'm told actually had 10 inches. Most was, what, 2? Hmmm I wasn't aware it showed that high... The highest I remember was 6", that was very close to the event though, you may be right on that in prior runs. Just pointing out that the NAM can be very good at showing where the heaviest precipitation will occur within 24 hours; just not on qpf amounts. Yeah I think the highest was just below 3". Nevertheless I can't believe the drastic model spread occurring while the storm is happening; craziness. Seems like NWS is doing a pretty good job of sorting through it all (if not a bit bulish), this is definitely a storm where you have to use meteorology and not just modelogly. Gonna be fun to watch this unfold. My call for just east of TTN is 10"-15" (low confidence); could be anywhere from 8"-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We seem to have all the ingredients except for the actual snow. Really would like to see the radar start filling in/getting busy. Hopefully it will happen soon... Same here Kamu. I have noticed the precip is no longer moving south to north. It definitely has started moving east to west. Now like you said we need the actual snow to fill in, and fast. Reading the 18z NAM verbatim the precip won't start until late tonight. 9-10ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Same here Kamu. I have noticed the precip is no longer moving south to north. It definitely has started moving east to west. Now like you said we need the actual snow to fill in, and fast. Reading the 18z NAM verbatim the precip won't start until late tonight. 9-10ish. I was just looking at that, most falls between 10 pm tonight and 10 am tomorrow. That's okay, I guess I/we just need to be patient! And if we get any before 10 pm tonight it's a bonus. It's actually started snowing very lightly here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I was just looking at that, most falls between 10 pm tonight and 10 am tomorrow. That's okay, I guess I/we just need to be patient! And if we get any before 10 pm tonight it's a bonus. It's actually started snowing very lightly here again.Yea you're definitely right. I was at work all day and not up to speed on the timing so I kinda freaked when I saw the radar. IF it does snow as long as the Nam depicts I'll be very happy as well. Big IF tho. As you said, PATIENCE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Most other models don't have the precip starting till several hours later. So we can tell if the NAM was right or wrong, if radar isn't covered by 10pm. Even HRRR is way dry at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why are the short range models like hrrr and rap not showing any real qpf here and not much in NY either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 not surprisingly, the GFS is nothing like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 not surprisingly, the GFS is nothing like the NAM. GFS is already wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 not surprisingly, the GFS is nothing like the NAM. Precip. field definitely shifted east from the 12Z May be 5 inches in TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 O T S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 O T S Not based on this http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS is already wrong... how so? im not sure you can tell yet in terms of the significant stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 O T S well that's not accurate, it may be too far east to impact this region, but the whole storm is not going out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 how so? im not sure you can tell yet in terms of the significant stuff... NYC-area posters already have amounts equal to what the GFS has for 1am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 LOL is the Mt Holly radar down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think one of the major reasons a lot of posters (myself included) have been hanging on to the idea of a major snowfall for the Philly region is because I can't remember the Euro being so wrong so close to a storm. At this point, though, the evidence is clearly mounting. Some of the short range guidance even calls into question how bad this will be for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Mt Holly has bumped up my totals a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanenbc10 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hurricane went with NWS numbers, but he sounded like he had low confidence. No I didn't go with their numbers....ours is 6-10" while theirs is 10-14"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 LOL is the Mt Holly radar down? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Question for NWS folks or PC-savvy folks: I thought the NWS in Mt. Holly expanded the 18-24" swath and the 12-18" swath westward a bit from this morning (10-15 miles), but I can't actually tell for sure, since these friggin cut/pasted maps in these threads and elsewhere on other boards (and even in my emails I send with these graphics) are "live" in that if you go back a day or two, you only see the current time-stamped maps, not the originals. I find it very frustrating that the maps don't remain static, with the original content and time stamp. I think you can do that if you save the file to your PC, but that's annoying to have to do. Anyone know any tricks to making the snowfall maps stay static (short of saving them to some hosting site)? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think one of the major reasons a lot of posters (myself included) have been hanging on to the idea of a major snowfall for the Philly region is because I can't remember the Euro being so wrong so close to a storm. At this point, though, the evidence is clearly mounting. Some of the short range guidance even calls into question how bad this will be for NYC. The GFS is already way underdone for NYC. They will be fine. The question remains how will we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not based on this http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/rb.html Looking at the radar AS CURRENTLY PRESENTED, one could almost argue that it appears as if it's going to miss New Jersey and NYC and just pummel New England. While there is always that possibility, other imagery, like what you posted, argues otherwise. While I'm on the sidelines again, and not particularly minding that I am, it's going to be an interesting night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This will go down as a bust for the simple reason that it's no where near Historic, for really any portion. And barely even "Significant" for Philly -- Rob G has 7 -11 for Philly. Yesterday's hype so quickly destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This will go down as a bust for the simple reason that it's no where near Historic, for really any portion. And barely even "Significant" for Philly -- Rob G has 7 -11 for Philly. Yesterday's hype so quickly destroyed. I agree with you but in our area but it was never supposed to be historic. The question is does New England get 24-36 inches of snow. Does NYC get 24+. That is where they were indicating it would be "epic". IF NYC only gets 12 then certainly it was not EPIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 still 2.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looking at the radar AS CURRENTLY PRESENTED, one could almost argue that it appears as if it's going to miss New Jersey and NYC and just pummel New England. While there is always that possibility, other imagery, like what you posted, argues otherwise. While I'm on the sidelines again, and not particularly minding that I am, it's going to be an interesting night. Just having precip on the radar currently discounts the GFS...which is important. And leans towards the NAM / ECM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Radar returns are most definitely heading west. The question now is how far west and how heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Radar returns are most definitely heading west. The question now is how far west and how heavy. Second that everything moving East to West from offshore clear inland to Lancaster County...Is that the new surface low look down along the beaches Rehobeth Delaware and Ocean City Maryland...looks like a circulation stationary or slowly drifting southwest...or is this my imagination?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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