Treckasec2 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just capture/save the image and upload. I really don't blame them.. Yeah, fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Interesting how, as the SREF (of which the NAM is a part) slides down, the NAM itself goes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 oops I posted in NYC by mistake. But yeah, looks very good. man...that 2 MB stronger at 3 hour forecast was HUGE...knew it was going to be huge. That's at 7 am tomorrow morning - wouldn't that be sweet to wake up to that!!! That is, if one were to go to sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Would it bring bad luck to ask for 2-3 mb stronger and 10 miles west to get Berks County in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Oh wow, ballistic NAM. OK, back to caring about the models, again. Ok, back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Interesting how, as the SREF (of which the NAM is a part) slides down, the NAM itself goes up. this is an incredibly tough forecast for this region. I hope people remember that when it is all said and done and people are crying busts and criticizing left and right. I mean the storm has started and the gfs has 3 inches for PHL and the NAM has a foot. I think the latest Euro might be a good compromise to base a forecast off of, but what do I know in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It was a nice call, how several people this afternoon / morning noticed it being stronger and going negative earlier than expected....and then boom, NAM picks up on it. GFS should be nicer at 18z as well. (unless their data feed is screwed up again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It was a nice call, how several people this afternoon / morning noticed it being stronger and going negative earlier than expected....and then boom, NAM picks up on it. GFS should be nicer at 18z as well. (unless their data feed is screwed up again) IDK, I suspect its just usual NAM wackiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 IDK, I suspect its just usual NAM wackiness. That's what I'd think too but all the OBS seem to match what it's depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 IDK, I suspect its just usual NAM wackiness. what do you mean? 18z NAM has a great track record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 996 MB at 3pm. (current analysis) NAM has it at 995 at 4pm. The way it's dropping now, 993 is even possible (4pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 IDK, I suspect its just usual NAM wackiness. When current analysis (nowcasting) agrees with it, I don't know if I could call it wackiness. It's been performing pretty well lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 When current analysis agree with it, I don't know if I could call it wackiness. It's been performing pretty well lately. Sure it has. I mean, that's why it had nothing til the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sure it has. I mean, that's why it had nothing til the last two runs. Ray, could it be picking up on anything here as far as new data being ingested? I mean, that was a pretty big jump for the NAM less than 12 hours out from the main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sure it has. I mean, that's why it had nothing til the last two runs. It finally played catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Sure it has. I mean, that's why it had nothing til the last two runs. yeah didn't the NAM 6 hours out from the clipper arriving last weds have TTN getting 3-4 inches? Then corrected itself once the event but was still overdone when the event got underway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ray, could it be picking up on anything here as far as new data being ingested? I mean, that was a pretty big jump for the NAM less than 12 hours out from the main event Theoretically, but the 12Z NAM had a big jump one direction while all the other guidance shifted in the other direction. My gut says its picking up on something but blowing it out of proportion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yeah didn't the NAM 6 hours out from the clipper arriving last weds have TTN getting 3-4 inches? Then corrected itself once the event but was still overdone when the event got underway... There was that one or two runs of the NAM just before the clipper that had, what, 8" in ACY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Isn't the lack of precip in eastern VA a cause for concern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Isn't the lack of precip in eastern VA a cause for concern? The precip isn't coming from VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Every model, regardless of what else it depicts, is showing that tight gradient between insane snows and moderate accumulations... and we all know this to be typical of Miller Bs. I apologize for oversimplifying here, but it is nowcasting time with the only really relevant details from Trenton on south and west being where those heavy snow bands set up and how far south and west they get. The rest is interesting in an academic sense, but, at this point, I don't see the models giving us any more or better insight on where the line is going to be than the radar is going to give us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yeah didn't the NAM 6 hours out from the clipper arriving last weds have TTN getting 3-4 inches? Then corrected itself once the event but was still overdone when the event got underway... No it did not. It showed a sharp cutoff with intense banding in SNJ (which ended up verifying). It was a tad overdone for SNJ but overall it was the only model to pick up on that and accurately showed low totals for northern areas. While the NAM has its many faults and is pretty terrible outside of 24 hours, it is pretty good at showing where banding will show up. So I think its right in showing more qpf for western areas in accordance with the EURO. Keep the the areas of banding and slash the qpf by a third and the 18z NAM might be a pretty good forecast. It's definitely trending wetter, and this close to an event that can't be ignored. Nevertheless, I'm still a bit skeptical, but this trend on the NAM is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 New snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 New snowfall map The new snowfall map: The same as the old. I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No it did not. It showed a sharp cutoff with intense banding in SNJ (which ended up verifying). It was a tad overdone for SNJ but overall it was the only model to pick up on that and accurately showed low totals for northern areas. While the NAM has its many faults and is pretty terrible outside of 24 hours, it is pretty good at showing where banding will show up. So I think its right in showing more qpf for western areas in accordance with the EURO. Keep the the areas of banding and slash the qpf by a third and the 18z NAM might be a pretty good forecast. It's definitely trending wetter, and this close to an event that can't be ignored. Nevertheless, I'm still a bit skeptical, but this trend on the NAM is encouraging. More than a tad... considering at least 1 run I'm told actually had 10 inches. Most was, what, 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 TWC had a map showing 8-12 for Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 MT Holly just increased pops 16-26" in local forecast thread for most of Ocean County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll take that 6-8" in a heartbeat the way things look right now. I saw the sun almost peak through on my way home from work just now. When is the precip really supposed to start getting slung in off the Atlantic? It looked somewhat impressive about 2 hours ago but has since looked more disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 For Princeton NJ, changed from 12 - 16 to 10 - 18. Erm, is that up or down? What the serious hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 surface Low stayed at 996 at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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