MattMal88 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Precip is being pulled NNW now on the radar the coastal is starting to fire up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Already going negative. It looks like, and this shouldn't be a surprise, that the Euro was on to something which is a lot more something than any of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The surface low is pretty far west compared to the GFS camp at the current time. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Precip is being pulled NNW now on the radar the coastal is starting to fire up Already going negative. It looks like, and this shouldn't be a surprise, that the Euro was on to something which is a lot more something than any of the other models. The surface low is pretty far west compared to the GFS camp at the current time. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Really enjoy the optimistic views men! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS almost a whiff for the area, maybe 3 inches for the area. rgem a little more maybe 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I am not going to overreact to a few model runs... I still like 8-12 for the immediate NW burbs. The low already looks west on the surface map, and I trust the Euro more than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I am not going to overreact to a few model runs... I still like 8-12 for the immediate NW burbs. The low already looks west on the surface map, and I trust the Euro more than anything Closer to 8 than 12 of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Have you guys seen DiMartino's forecast? He has the city in 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ray, do you happen to know if the 500mb chart on the SPC mesoscale analysis site is updated in real time from aircraft or is it derived from previous model output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakery Boy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The surface low is pretty far west compared to the GFS camp at the current time. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Can you explain what this means as far as snow totals across the SW NJ and SE PA region? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I guess all the praying to the euro alter did some magic. But this storm still has a lot of time! It could be possible that eastern PA gets the dry slot. Or maybe a death band? Those features are so unpredictable. Thats the difference between 6" and 16+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I am down in Cape May and probably taking a trip to AC overnight....not expecting much in Cape May so headed North :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec2 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wow, train of snow bands it seems. When one moves through my area, another one forms to hit me. Storm looks really good, negative trough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 UKMET remains in the unimpressed camp. 25 mm = 1 inch QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I am not going to overreact to a few model runs... I still like 8-12 for the immediate NW burbs. The low already looks west on the surface map, and I trust the Euro more than anything. range seems very high, given that even Euro has cut way back over last few runs. the GFS and RGEM were less than half that. I hope you are right though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ray, do you happen to know if the 500mb chart on the SPC mesoscale analysis site is updated in real time from aircraft or is it derived from previous model output? I don't know for sure off the top of my head, I'd have to go look it up, but I would suspect there is some aircraft data in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 UKMET remains in the unimpressed camp. 25 mm = 1 inch QPF. UKMET relatively unimpressed with the storm in general, save for eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The only thing I fear is the development of the 500 mb low. Because right now, storm looks pretty impressive on the radar. Just hoping the tight gradient doesn't screw SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 UKMET remains in the unimpressed camp. 25 mm = 1 inch QPF. Wiggum remains in the unimpressed camp too based on current and model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The only thing I fear is the development of the 500 mb low. Because right now, storm looks pretty impressive on the radar. Just hoping the tight gradient doesn't screw SEPA The storm is going to look impressive, it is a bomb, but it is the track/gradient that will end up being our downfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My god could we just shift that whole thing west by 40 miles and we'd have a LOT of happy campers. NAM vs. RGEM, ranges approximate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The trough going negative already is good news. And I somewhat agree with that discussion. But if ECM goes east this run, we're screwed. And would mean 2 of the most reliable models have jumped ship. GFS and ECMWF. then again, there were times where NAM beat out both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The storm is going to look impressive, it is a bomb, but it is the track/gradient that will end up being our downfall. Do you put any stock in the fact that the forming low is already west of the Euro guidance and way west of the GFS? I tend to lean much more heavily on the Euro, plus the set up looks good for a solid storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Do you put any stock in the fact that the forming low is already west of the Euro guidance and way west of the GFS? I tend to lean much more heavily on the Euro, plus the set up looks good for a solid storm it can be hard to sometimes pinpoint where the low is forming exactly, it doesn't look that different to me than what the Euro was depicting at 0z. I'm open to the notion that I am missing something here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Check out the recent radar loop from KDOX. Look atr that crazy plume of moisture heading NNW along eastern border of DE. Just popped up in last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Another third appears to have slashed from the EC QPF at TTN, its down below 1" now (last run was 1.32, before then 1.91) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro looks to be a tick western. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro looks to be a tick western. I haven't seen the surface charts, but the QPF is notably lower. Down to about 0.7" at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z ECM .6" QPF Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro looks to be a tick western. not to my eyes, looks like about .5-.7 qpf for Philly, maybe .9 for Trenton, less as you go west of Philly. I think at this point we can safely put to rest the idea of this being a major snowstorm for Philly metro area. Still our best event to date, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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