kurtstack Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I always set the bar with clippers to 1-3". Greater than 3" with a clipper is always a boom in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 This looks fine to me for an area wide moderate snowstorm. Why the whining. We weren't expecting smowmaggeden. I think it's because some people saw 30 inches of digital snow and banked it and now we will fight and claw to get 3 on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GGEM looks great, way better than last night, definitely looks like 0.3" QPF + for most. Ukie looks a lot like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Wes, do you think we have a shot at a closeoff and neutral/neg tilt as it passes underneath? The idea was there but too little too late. I'm still greedy. Lol I think that is still possible but is a long shot. I haven't seen the GGEM 500h but it look more in line precipwise with the GFS than the NAM liking the initial shot fo precip more than the redevelopment over BWI and points northeast at least as far out as I've been able to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GGEM is a good solution, though warm-ish.....Really clocks the western burbs Awesome. Plus we tend to trend colder t game time lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looked like the SREF mean at DCA was 3" of snow FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GGEM looks great, way better than last night, definitely looks like 0.3" QPF + for most. It's warmer than most other guidance but also is wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GGEM is probably 0.5" for me and 0.6 - 0.7 for IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Except for the way it happens on the NAM as psuhoffman eloquently put it. But the nam fails consistently at 12 hours so..Hold on I'm busy shoveling the 8" of snow yesterday's nam said I would have right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GGEM is probably 0.5" for me and 0.6 - 0.7 for IAD It's a godo run and almost back up a band enough to hit me once the low starts developing offshore. I'd take it but right now would still lean towards 1-3" for a forecast with the idea that the bigger bust potential is for the storm to produce more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It's a godo run and almost back up a band enough to hit me once the low starts developing offshore. I'd take it but right now would still lean towards 1-3" for a forecast with the idea that the bigger bust potential is for the storm to produce more than that. I think that is a sound forecast....I really hope the euro at least beefs up to something reasonable and not another 0.07" for me and you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I get the part after 0Z Tuesday... but does the inverted trough feature start before then? The first burst through Monday afternoon is not that far off QPF from the GFS solution. That's mostly true probably.. that feature does become the inverted trough though and the 500 evolution is pretty close to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I always set the bar with clippers to 1-3". Greater than 3" with a clipper is always a boom in these parts.Safe but this isn't really a typical clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Something of note that RodneyS told me last year- Jan. 25 is the single snowiest day at DCA, with 24 accumulating events since records began. I hope we can get at least something down here- if southern MD gets shutout one more time while everyone else gets 3+ inches I'm gonna lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Safe but this isn't really a typical clipper. No, its really not. Mostly why the dry solutions are getting under my skin. If all we had was h5 plots I would lock up a 3-6" in my brain and not let go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 NWS forecast doesn't have me getting out of the 20s on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Serious question, if other models fall in line with last night's EURO & today's 12z NAM, would anyone be interested in tripping with me? Split the mushroom etc. I went up there for NEMO and it was prob the best night of my life. sure. i'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 We should take a roadtrip. This looks like a 1978 new england repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Safe but this isn't really a typical clipper. i hear that a lot with digital representations of clippers, but generally find setting expectations at clipper climo 1-3" with boom possibility is the way to go, even with the more diggy clippers. Models will drive you nuts with qpf and local bands etc. I know there will be a band of more than the 1-3" but find it pointless to try and predict it this far in advance. Sounds like Wes is taking this line of thinking as well, and I would think that's what CWG probably goes with to be safe. Also, the clipper actually behaves a lot like our typical clippers until after it passes us by. What it does up in New England really doesn't affect our forecast, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 We should take a roadtrip. This looks like a 1978 new england repeat Every two years they get a HECS. Feb 2001, Feb 2003, Jan 2005, Dec 2010, Jan 2011, Feb 2013, now this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I see a lot of talk about the nam model. As a general rule, whatever the Nam predicts for total snowfall, go ahead and cut it in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I hate sne..its not fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I hate sne..its not fair Boston is a cool city if you like 3 week warm seasons and an endless sea of white people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I can already see the euro run in my mind and it isn't a good one...I'm guessing 0.10 QPF for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I can already see the euro run in my mind and it isn't a good one...I'm guessing 0.10 QPF for me If it it 0.20 it will be a big victory. I take solace in the idea that it has not been the winner with slippers this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Deeeeeteeeee talking Lindsay storm apparently. How much we get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 If we stuck out into the Atlantic and had 300 miles in latitude we'd be... SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Deeeeeteeeee talking Lindsay storm apparently. How much we get? nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Some of that is from today, but pretty good nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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