Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The NAM so far at 30 hours looks like the shortwave is taking a farther S trajectory, still early though. Hoping for big things on the 12z runs. Lets gogogo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I was gonna draw this comparison... 2/10/10 was a crazy strong ns vort that blew up off the coast. But to be fair that was a bona fide blizzard... looking at the SLP on the maps it was only 1000 when it passed.. There was a double barrel look with and another storm already forming off the coast in advance... The whole complex phased and pivotted right over top of us... it got most of its moisture from the Atlantic so its possible to see the kind of solution we saw last night I figured I would have been blasted if I drew the comparison... It's definitely not the same but I don't have the best snowstorm memory without an excel doc which leaves out details. I kind of forgot the evolution of late jan last yr but now that I think about it I may have compared that one to feb 10 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 We really don't want these things to drop SE out of Manitoba into MN. Need to vort to be back by Williston, ND in most scenarios. Is Minot too far east? 12Z NAM has the vort dropping in between Williston and Minot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks more potent and looks like it will dig farther at 39 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks very similar to what the 6z GFS looked like at same time period, commmmon baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks very similar to what the 6z GFS looked like at same time period, commmmon baby Through 48 it has our streak of vort a hair NE of where the GFS had it, but very very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Damn, NAM is even further south than 6z out to 48 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 First time closing off a contour at 51 hours...and further south than 6z at 57 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 First time closing off a contour at 51 hours...and further south than 6z at 57 hours Question is can the energy on the backside of the trough round the corner and close off in time to kind of create some CCB moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks good at h5...better even than 6z, I just hate the early sfc profile...but in the scheme of things, we could definitely work with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NAM looks good at h5...better even than 6z, I just hate the early sfc profile...but in the scheme of things, we could definitely work with that Yeah looks dicey at the surface. Really need the slp to get a little further under us, but like you said, we can work with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Question is can the energy on the backside of the trough round the corner and close off in time to kind of create some CCB moisture Yeah, but we don't want it coming around too soon so that we get less of a positive tilt and it doesn't make it far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice look on the nam for mby and most north of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not all snow since we start at about 40, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Something that kind of hurts is there is a 'kicker' behind the shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 nice look to this http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150123+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Something that kind of hurts is there is a 'kicker' behind the shortwave there's been a string of kickers all season just keep the kickers coming as we only have to score decently with every other one to have a great season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Something that kind of hurts is there is a 'kicker' behind the shortwave That's ok. The kicker will just provide some snow on snow. Keep the pack fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not all snow since we start at about 40, but... USA_APCPI24_sfc_072.gif Very nice! Don't think we can really ask for a better outcome. Even with some rain to start I'm thinking this could still be a 2-4 in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not all snow since we start at about 40, but... USA_APCPI24_sfc_072.gif I think there may be more qpf after 72 hrs, but I'm waiting on the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 there's been a string of kickers all season just keep the kickers coming as we only have to score decently with every other one to have a great season That's ok. The kicker will just provide some snow on snow. Keep the pack fresh. us thinking alike must worry you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think there may be more qpf after 72 hrs, but I'm waiting on the maps yep, some per sim/rad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150123+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Very nice! Don't think we can really ask for a better outcome. Even with some rain to start I'm thinking this could still be a 2-4 in DC. Lock it in...actually bring it a tad north, dont want the S&E folks getting the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice 18-24hr long clipper + Norlun. Hopefully the track holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Something that kind of hurts is there is a 'kicker' behind the shortwave speed that energy behind up a bit and then watch our vort sit and spin off the coast http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150123+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice 18-24hr long clipper + Norlun. Hopefully the track holds. A long duration snow would be nice. Seems like that past couple years they've been 6 hours max and its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice 18-24hr long clipper + Norlun. Hopefully the track holds. worked twice this month, why should it change now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Whoa Nellie! Obligatory weather comment: NAM looks like a potent event, good precip....that's all I had time to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 A long duration snow would be nice. Seems like that past couple years they've been 6 hours max and its over. And that's the more likely outcome. Long duration clippers only work with a perfect transfer/inverted trough. They are pretty uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not all snow since we start at about 40, but... USA_APCPI24_sfc_072.gif I think I'm in love. The temps should crash pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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