Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Canadian basically supports the GFS....also has another event on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 All Hail the CMC...has low dip into central VA http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2015012300&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=472 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What a gorgeous run... I'd lock that up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Enters in the same area. eta: image messed up.. one sec. edit 2: eh, it's imgur. you can deal: http://imgur.com/dMl4Mk1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Something that has been showing up on several long range models for the past many runs is a large storm sometime between the 1st and the 3rd of Feb. CMC confirms the trend for that storm, but also introduces a Jan 31st weak coastal which is something we have to watch out for too. -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Enters in the same area. eta: image messed up.. one sec. edit 2: eh, it's imgur. you can deal: http://imgur.com/dMl4Mk1 2/10//10 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 2/10//10 right? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Man. Euro h5 track looks great. This threat is becoming legit quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 72 on instant weather maps looks Boom! Closed H5 over Cincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 incoming http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still not quite GFS but close. Not bad for this range that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still not quite GFS but close. Not bad for this range that's for sure. sweet look http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS stays tighter thru the neg tilt explosion.. euro still gets a bit strung out in that transition phase around here. Good thing the GFS is a northern stream machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still not quite GFS but close. Not bad for this range that's for sure. hopefully the surface will catch up...I'd like to see it dig a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Man. Euro h5 track looks great. This threat is becoming legit quickly incoming http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0&ge=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf&le=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Looks great to me. Keep the good news/trends coming fellas. Good vibes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 how much qpf generally? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS stays tighter thru the neg tilt explosion.. euro still gets a bit strung out in that transition phase around here. Good thing the GFS is a northern stream machine. It's a nice shift regardless of surface plots. This one has upside for sure. Love the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 hopefully the surface will catch up...I'd like to see it dig a little more With our luck, 12z run will have it near Mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 sweet look http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest It's better than last run. I think they're moving in for the kill so to speak. But these systems are still perilous.. at least the second part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 how much qpf generally? thx maybe 0.15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's better than last run. I think they're moving in for the kill so to speak. But these systems are still perilous.. at least the second part.Imo- the weak/broad slp look seems less likely with the track and amp of h5. Could be right of course but this has much more potential than the previous 2. We're an overperforming clipper magnet anyways. 0z Monday gfs run is all that matters. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 hopefully the surface will catch up...I'd like to see it dig a little more can't hurt. the vort passes have all been pretty good though.. seems the trend is toward consolidating the vort. euro seems suspicious how it goes to stringy as it kicks neutral. usa usa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 maybe 0.15" that's not what I was hoping or expecting with that vort it'll catch up to the other models I'm betting as long as the vort continues that look, or better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 maybe 0.15" Lol less than the wednesday clipper qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Imo- the weak/broad slp look seems less likely with the track and amp of h5. Could be right of course but this has much more potential than the previous 2. We're an overperforming clipper magnet anyways. 0z Monday gfs run is all that matters. Lol I think we are pretty vested for 1-2" and it would stick and stick around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol less than the wednesday clipper qpf yoda post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol less than the wednesday clipper qpf probably 0.2" for you...and it will be cold...so at 30:1 ratios, you're good for a solid 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The bigger issue with slp tracking north seems to be becoming less likely. .5 qpf as rain or melt on contact snow sucks. Looking like we get the pass underneath so that issue isn't as big of a problem. Now we just need to hope for rapid development that isn't centered over the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Can't tell if joking or serious, but I'm guessing 30:1 speaks for itself.Of course he is joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not sure GFS was even top end yet either. GFS was a good look for this range in old GFS day. I may set my bar high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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