wisconsinwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think it's about time, 12z GFS had advisory worthy amounts for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin and the Euro and GEM have been semi-bullish as well, not as cold as your typical clipper though so not sure about the typical good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Slushy 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Early, but looks like a solid advisory type snow shaping up for some. Will also have to watch for some possible lake enhancement on the western shores of Lake Michigan if the low passes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro op looked good for the area, but quite a few ensembles were farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The recent trend is not a friend on this one. Hope the models trend back to the west otherwise this is another missed opportunity. Interestingly, the Red Bull Crashed Ice race in downtown St. Paul is Saturday night. Would be great to have a decent snow during the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think this clipper will be going to the south of me. But, today's clipper was suppose to also. We were told we'd get 0.2" and ended up with 2.5". Still, I'm getting tired of "clippers" and want a nice storm coming up from the southwest. I can't remember getting any of those this year. At least none in the form of snow here, but rather rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z GFS is an eastern lakes hitter. Not feeling good about this one this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z GFS looks excellent. Wish I could lock it in lol. This looks to be the juiciest yet in the January clipper parade. Track still TBD of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There are some striking similarities at 500mb between the GFS prog for this clipper and the "super clipper"...including the orientation of the 528dm line, the depth/tilt of the shortwave, the ridging out west, the cut off over the southwest, and the PV east of Hudson Bay is even in a very similar spot albeit a bit deeper in this case. Differences are a slightly broader shortwave progged for the upcoming event and somewhat weaker vorticity...the temp gradient the system will be moving across may also be a bit weaker than the super clipper event. However, I'd say the intensity of the shortwave for this upcoming clipper is pretty abnormal for a clipper, possibly helped by a potential phase between two vort maxes west of the Lakes on Sunday. I could see how someone squeezes out marginal warning criteria snow out of this in the subforum. The GFS has had some good runs thrown in off and on for this clipper, including the most recent 0z run. The Euro has generally shown a couple to a few inches from northern IL east across IN/OH, especially north of I-70, while the Canadian is farther north. Given the decently high-amplitude flow on the east side of the very strong west coast ridge and decent confluence over Nova Scotia, and the location of the PV, I'd favor a track somewhere close to the GFS and Euro. Clippers are the one thing I'd expect the GFS to handle better than the Euro, or at least perform comparably to. So, this could be interesting for a few people I think. We'll see if the models hold with a pretty robust shortwave and see what they end up doing with QPF as we get closer. My one concern is decent confluence over Nova Scotia that may limit how sharp the shortwave will be, and ultimately may make it harder to get warning snows somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Major differences aloft between the Euro and GFS. GFS flat and stung out at 500mb while the Euro almost closes off over the Western Lakes. And the 6z takes a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Punt At least extreme cold doesn't follow it if this storm does not come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like a 4-8 inch clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 At least extreme cold doesn't follow it if this storm does not come to fruition. at least not right away.... looks good for YBY up through moneyman country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 at least not right away.... looks good for YBY up through moneyman country You're right about the qualifier, but in general looking at the Ensembles the next couple weeks look to be seasonably cold at worst, no clear visits from the PV or anything at this point (yet still cool enough to likely maintain a snowpack if this clipper delivers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Probably another 1-3"/2-4" deal for those away from the lakes.. Granted, I will gladly eat crow in the highly unlikely event that there's a widespread stripe of 6"+ synoptic snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 i know it isn't really the king of NW flow events but the Euro is a real turd, total snoozer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Brutal shifts to the east on the models. Punt is the right call here. 1" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 i know it isn't really the king of NW flow events but the Euro is a real turd, total snoozer Euro has been overly dry at this range with the clippers, it is to be expected at this point that it won't be in the ballpark on QPF until less than 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 i know it isn't really the king of NW flow events but the Euro is a real turd, total snoozer really nice uptick on the 12z run.. 12z vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There are some striking similarities at 500mb between the GFS prog for this clipper and the "super clipper"...including the orientation of the 528dm line, the depth/tilt of the shortwave, the ridging out west, the cut off over the southwest, and the PV east of Hudson Bay is even in a very similar spot albeit a bit deeper in this case. Differences are a slightly broader shortwave progged for the upcoming event and somewhat weaker vorticity...the temp gradient the system will be moving across may also be a bit weaker than the super clipper event. However, I'd say the intensity of the shortwave for this upcoming clipper is pretty abnormal for a clipper, possibly helped by a potential phase between two vort maxes west of the Lakes on Sunday. I could see how someone squeezes out marginal warning criteria snow out of this in the subforum. GFS 500.gif super clipper.gif The GFS has had some good runs thrown in off and on for this clipper, including the most recent 0z run. The Euro has generally shown a couple to a few inches from northern IL east across IN/OH, especially north of I-70, while the Canadian is farther north. Given the decently high-amplitude flow on the east side of the very strong west coast ridge and decent confluence over Nova Scotia, and the location of the PV, I'd favor a track somewhere close to the GFS and Euro. Clippers are the one thing I'd expect the GFS to handle better than the Euro, or at least perform comparably to. eps 500.png So, this could be interesting for a few people I think. We'll see if the models hold with a pretty robust shortwave and see what they end up doing with QPF as we get closer. My one concern is decent confluence over Nova Scotia that may limit how sharp the shortwave will be, and ultimately may make it harder to get warning snows somewhere. heh, that's pretty interesting in terms of similarities, though that event has pretty much become the gold standard in terms of clippers so not expecting a repeat. Mentioned it yesterday but will have to watch for some lake enhanced/lake effect potential. The 2005 event was prolific in that regard (2 feet of snow in NW IN with a majority of it being lake effect). Thermodynamics aren't nearly as good this time so a much more modest outcome preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 really nice uptick on the 12z run.. 12z vs 0z ecmwf_tprecip_michigan_16.png ecmwf_tprecip_michigan_18.png That was quite a jump toward the GFS and GEM. I figured it was going to take a couple more days for the Euro to catch on to higher QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 really nice uptick on the 12z run.. 12z vs 0z ecmwf_tprecip_michigan_16.png ecmwf_tprecip_michigan_18.png Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Trends looking great..get me a day out and ill be excited. Our numerous clippers in January have met or slightly exceeded day-out qpf output....but fantasy range is a different story. (Not that 3 days is fantasy range lol...but dont trust models at all this winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Seems like there are some positive trends for Detroit-Toledo-Cleveland area. Looks like Toledo/Cleveland could be at 28-32 degrees for this storm. Hopefully on the lower side. There shouldn't be any freezing rain issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro is often too dry with clippers. The semi-super clipper in early January settled on a band of about 0.30" precip through Iowa. I ended up with 0.46". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Trends are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Seems like there are some positive trends for Detroit-Toledo-Cleveland area. Looks like Toledo/Cleveland could be at 28-32 degrees for this storm. Hopefully on the lower side. There shouldn't be any freezing rain issues This is something no one wants to discuss or think about, but if this system trends any deeper, while no freezing preciptation concerns, we may have to consider the possibility of rain mixing in on the southern and eastern edge of the better snows. Boundary layer temps may get marginal for a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 heh, that's pretty interesting in terms of similarities, though that event has pretty much become the gold standard in terms of clippers so not expecting a repeat. Mentioned it yesterday but will have to watch for some lake enhanced/lake effect potential. The 2005 event was prolific in that regard (2 feet of snow in NW IN with a majority of it being lake effect). Thermodynamics aren't nearly as good this time so a much more modest outcome preferred. Yeah, I don't see a repeat due to an ever so slightly weaker shortwave, a slightly broader trough and a weaker baroclinic zone...although, I could see 6"+ somewhere, possibly across southern lower MI into extreme northern Ohio. The GFS and Euro really only get 850mb temps down to -10C or so right behind the clipper, so that argues against heavy lake enhancement, although maybe a couple of inches could be added in favored areas. As has been mentioned, it won't exactly be cold for this one, I could see mixing pretty close to Cleveland, although I highly doubt Detroit sees a mix unless this trends a good bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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