AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great run for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great run for SNE. Who cares about SNE? This is the MA forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Nothing better than PBP of a crappy model we can all get for free. Projecting what a crappy model will show is much better. NAM is warm. This is enough analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hi-Res NAM gives DC metro 4-5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormPinsMike Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I checked the 2m temperatures, and snowfall, looks warm for DC and south, N and W is fine though. The further N & W suburbs are probably fine. If I'm reading it right Leesburg (IMBY) it looks like at hour 69 (the heaviest precip panel) 800-850 layer are above 0 from the soundings chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You're on fire today. I think the same thing but it's harmless. And some people might not have access to the models. I guess.Or imagine this, people are traveling and only have access to a phone and it's difficult to see the maps on it. Thanks Yoda I appreciate the pbp. I don't understand people's anger over this. It's better than 95% of the posts in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NW VA, E WV and S PA get hammered. I like the sound of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Or imagine this, people are traveling and only have access to a phone and it's difficult to see the maps on it. Thanks Yoda I appreciate the pbp. I don't understand people's anger over this. It's better than 95% of the posts in this thread. Yoda is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Or imagine this, people are traveling and only have access to a phone and it's difficult to see the maps on it. Thanks Yoda I appreciate the pbp. I don't understand people's anger over this. It's better than 95% of the posts in this thread. I think Yoda is fine by default. I pretty much just said what you said though, so... Anyway, let's move on and get back to the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think Yoda is fine by default. I pretty much just said what you said though, so... Anyway, let's move on and get back to the potential. Great idea . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Last night's euro ensembles had a small but notable shift colder with the mean 850 0c line @ 12z Sat. Yesterday's 12z run had the line running the VA/WV border up through HGR. 0z has it running the BR through FDK. Goes along with losing some of the western outlier tracks. MSLP plot is very tight with an equal mix of lows just inside and outside OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 what the heck are you talking about? the hi-res NAM is only run to 60 hours, at which time the precip hasn't even started here. Hi-Res NAM gives DC metro 4-5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 regular NAM would have taint at BWI sandwiched between decent snow only maxes at around +1C at the worst it's close enough to the other models at this range all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Think I'll camp out in this thread. The clipper has angered me the clipper's SLP is fairly close to the pressure of the high for Friday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JMA double-low structure looks warm. ETA: But wet. No, this isn't a serious post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GFS brings the SLP inland in W FL Panhandle at 57 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 SLP low over south Georgia at 63hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I wish we could put some more distance between that Canadian low and our low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 850's are warmer than 6z but it's a weird nose in to the west. Probably noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 850's are warmer than 6z but it's a weird nose in to the west. Probably noise. I think radiational cooling should knock them down some....operative word "think" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 SLP low over the NC coast 72hrs. Looks warm based off 2m temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Right on the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 DCA is a snow sounding by 72 hours, if barely so....would be 2-3"probably ....QPF is light.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Brutally close. Keeps the heaviest precip on the warm side. 850's are glued to I95. A touch west from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If this was the old GFS I would hedge towads the NW extent of heaviest precip being underdone. No idea about the new gfs. Gotta sweat it out either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks cold enough at 850s by hr 78... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 As others have noted, it looks a little weak/dry on the NW side...but soundings are ok (if you know to expect taint). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Storm looks fast on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 DCA is a snow sounding by 72 hours, if barely so....would be 2-3"probably ....QPF is light.... I guess Raleigh's would be overdone then... its 3-5 with iso 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 SLP low over the NC coast 72hrs. Looks warm based off 2m temperatures. one of the mets said that the new gfs does have a warm bias on surface temps soooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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