PhineasC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think it has it's uses but using the mean often can mislead. Sometimes not reaching clarity is a good thing. You would need to look at the members closely as there are often some wacky runs that skew the mean, either with mega snow or all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think it has it's uses but using the mean often can mislead. Sometimes not reaching clarity is a good thing. Lol- last sentence is funny...and true. The problem with weenies like me using them is exactly what phineas just said. You have to pick them apart and find the members that have been out drinking all night and then parse through the sober ones. By the time I'm done I missed the nam and the gfs has initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 They are pretty bad. That being said, I don't know that Yoda was extrapolating, so I'd cut him some slack. Although comparing the mean to the Euro was I think since they are the first to come out of the 0z model suite and for the sake of enthusiasm he should be cut some slack. It's no worse than someone posting the 84 hour NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Can I post the FIM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think since they are the first to come out of the 0z model suite and for the sake of enthusiasm he should be cut some slack. It's no worse than someone posting the 84 hour NAM. Agreed. We're in between model runs and I don't see the big deal with analyzing the SREFs. I think most of us know the limitations of the SREF but we're on a weather forum - we're going to analyze every little thing to death, especially as we wait for models to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I was more using it for placement of the SLP at hr 87 since there appeared to be a majority NE of where the mean has it.. but anyway yeah, poor idea by me... lets see what the rest of the NAM has in store for us tonight Yoda, don't listen to them. Everything is good and if anyone tells you they didn't look at the loop of the sref run and get a smile, they ain't being honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think since they are the first to come out of the 0z model suite and for the sake of enthusiasm he should be cut some slack. It's no worse than someone posting the 84 hour NAM. They are not first, they are LAST. The "21Z" run is actually from 18Z initialization/boundary conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 They are not first, they are LAST. The "21Z" run is actually from 18Z initialization/boundary conditions. I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I stand corrected. you could have sat down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z NAM at 60 has SLP just north of Mobile Bay, Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Compared to the GFS at 63, NAM at 57 has that pesky Canadian low further north and looks a tad colder. At this point, I'm looking for any good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z NAM low at 1012mb comes ashore near Mobile/Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z NAM at 60 has SLP just north of Mobile Bay, Alabama right here http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_p03.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p03&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150121+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I like this NAM run slightly better than 18z. Trough has a more nuetral tilt if it means anything.sotrm should deepen faster. Then again, it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z NAM low at 1012mb comes ashore near Mobile/Mississippi what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Compared to the GFS at 63, NAM at 57 has that pesky Canadian low further north and looks a tad colder. At this point, I'm looking for any good news. I said earlier we need that to happen to help compensate for pesky western slp on the coast....let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 At 66 hrs, SLP is in extreme SE Alabama at 1010mb 72 -- SLP is in S GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM looks to be big...in a wet way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM looks to be big...in a wet way srefs were a thing of qpf beauty as well....but, alas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 72 hrs sim/rad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150121+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 72 hrs sim/rad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_072_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=sim_radar&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150121+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 75 -- SLP is INLAND in E SC 78 -- SLP is INLAND in E NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 75 -- SLP is INLAND in E SC yeah, it'll warm up I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM is sub freezing at 75 with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 850 line is at the M/D line at hour 78. Much warmer than GFS at the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 3" DC north and west by 78hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM is sub freezing at 75 with snow good start....how many more runs left? assuming it doesn't fall apart by the end of the run that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 81 -- 1002mb SLP around ORF/OBX region 84 -- 998mb SLP and deepening, about 100 miles east of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Be glad it's the NAM as the surface low track is a bad one. Too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 yeah, it'll warm up I'm sure 78 hours..sfc is below freezing, but sneaky warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Oops...warm that radar signature certainly suggested it would warm since we have no strong High to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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