downeastnc Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 NWS GSP AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY 7. I'll take the NWS over blogger Mets who are trying to sell subscriptions with hype. #patternchange #springiscoming #wintergoesbyebye LOL ok from GSP TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE (SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. and the 12Z GFS says enjoy your winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 NWS GSP AS OF 325 AM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE ONLY HINTED AT DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AS MAJOR WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS FORCE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY DAY 7. I'll take the NWS over blogger Mets who are trying to sell subscriptions with hype. #patternchange #springiscoming #wintergoesbyebye Cause yeah, GSP nailed the last event! Believe them first! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 LOL ok from GSP TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING ANAFRONT FROM THE NW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS CATCHING UP BUT STILL SLOWER. GOING WITH THE WPC PREFERENCE (SLOWER THAN GFS)...WEDNESDAY LOOKS WARM (UP TO 15-20 DEG JUMP FROM TUESDAY/S TEMPS) UNDER DECENT SWLY FLOW. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY (OR EVENING IF ECMWF IS RIGHT)...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT ACRS THE PIEDMONT...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INSTBY IN THE WARM SECTOR. BUT SEVERE THREAT SHUD BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHO...THE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE QPF SOMEWHAT FROM PREV RUNS. STILL PLAN TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE HWO. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT THEN ONLY RISE A FEW DEG ON THURSDAY...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP GIVE WAY TO NWLY CAA FLOW. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL SUCH THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME SNOW ON BACK EDGE OF THE THE PRECIP SHIELD. SOME MINOR ACCUMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRY POLAR HIGH PRES BUILD IN FROM THE NW...RETURNING OUR AREA TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S FRIDAY WITH LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. and the 12Z GFS says enjoy your winter weather gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png imma go ahead and say the GFS is wrong. QPF placement is wrong. it's a frontal passage. yes it's possible to get snow in March. but it's very hard. Things have to warm up eventually and it's kinda getting snow when it's warm. I think it's time to start looking toward severe weather season IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 imma go ahead and say the GFS is wrong. QPF placement is wrong. it's a frontal passage. yes it's possible to get snow in March. but it's very hard. Things have to warm up eventually and it's kinda getting snow when it's warm. I think it's time to start looking toward severe weather season IMO. Its anafrontal......so the QPF is not wrong...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 imma go ahead and say the GFS is wrong. QPF placement is wrong. it's a frontal passage. yes it's possible to get snow in March. but it's very hard. Things have to warm up eventually and it's kinda getting snow when it's warm. I think it's time to start looking toward severe weather season IMO. The. You better add the GGEM and euro as well cause they all show the same thing especially west of the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Its anafrontal......so the QPF is not wrong...... it will change in time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This one is easy: MariettaWx wants spring to arrive soon; ergo, he finds tidbits, nuggets, facts, what-have-you that support his desire. franklin NCwx, GAstorm, and others are hoping for one last hurrah out of winter; ergo, they find tidbits, nuggets, facts, what-have-you that support their desires. You each think the other side is nuts. We all like to be right. Very few people like to admit when they are wrong. (I'm not saying anyone is wrong in this situation.) And frankly, some of us on this board just don't get along that well. The personalities don't all mix too well. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Personally, I'm hoping for more snowfall; thus, I'll choose to ignore a little NWS snippet for meaning much more than a short warm-up is coming. Bring back the Ice Age! Summer will be here soon enough. Why would I wish for patterns or look for signals that bring its return that much closer? I will fight for any last piece of evidence that leans toward winter still holding strong. Long live the cold temperatures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This one is easy: MariettaWx wants spring to arrive soon; ergo, he finds tidbits, nuggets, facts, what-have-you that support his desire. franklin NCwx, GAstorm, and others are hoping for one last hurrah out of winter; ergo, they find tidbits, nuggets, facts, what-have-you that support their desires. You each think the other side is nuts. We all like to be right. Very few people like to admit when they are wrong. (I'm not saying anyone is wrong in this situation.) And frankly, some of us on this board just don't get along that well. The personalities don't all mix too well. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Personally, I'm hoping for more snowfall; thus, I'll choose to ignore a little NWS snippet for meaning much more than a short warm-up is coming. Bring back the Ice Age! Summer will be here soon enough. Why would I wish for patterns or look for signals that bring its return that much closer? I will fight for any last piece of evidence that leans toward winter still holding strong. Long live the cold temperatures! Great post and spot on I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Pot meet kettle ! Where are the mods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This one is easy: MariettaWx wants spring to arrive soon; ergo, he finds tidbits, nuggets, facts, what-have-you that support his desire. franklin NCwx, GAstorm, and others are hoping for one last hurrah out of winter; ergo, they find tidbits, nuggets, facts, what-have-you that support their desires. You each think the other side is nuts. We all like to be right. Very few people like to admit when they are wrong. (I'm not saying anyone is wrong in this situation.) And frankly, some of us on this board just don't get along that well. The personalities don't all mix too well. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Personally, I'm hoping for more snowfall; thus, I'll choose to ignore a little NWS snippet for meaning much more than a short warm-up is coming. Bring back the Ice Age! Summer will be here soon enough. Why would I wish for patterns or look for signals that bring its return that much closer? I will fight for any last piece of evidence that leans toward winter still holding strong. Long live the cold temperatures! I am ready for severe season cause I like wind....and storms in general....the biggest factor in summer temps to me is ground moisture as long as we keep having wet winters and springs we SHOULD hopefully be able to offset so of the heat of summer cause wet ground helps keep it cooler. That's why those summer back in the mid 2000's where so brutal during the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The return of a -EPO regime on the ECMWF weeklies as we progress deeper into March does not bode well for an early spring, regardless of the brief warm-up most of the Southeast is expecting next week. Sure, chances for wintry weather decrease in March, but a significant winter storm is certainly not impossible. Just speaking for my area, one of ILM's biggest snowstorms came in March. The setup being shown for the middle of next week looks pretty interesting, and I'd watch it just in case, because why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The return of a -EPO regime on the ECMWF weeklies as we progress deeper into March does not bode well for an early spring, regardless of the brief warm-up most of the Southeast is expecting next week. Sure, chances for wintry weather decrease in March, but a significant winter storm is certainly not impossible. Just speaking for my area, one of ILM's biggest snowstorms came in March. The setup being shown for the middle of next week looks pretty interesting, and I'd watch it just in case, because why not? Oscillations decrease in effects as we get closer to summer. They still have some impact on weather, but not as much as they would have in DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 imma go ahead and say the GFS is wrong. QPF placement is wrong. it's a frontal passage. yes it's possible to get snow in March. but it's very hard. Things have to warm up eventually and it's kinda getting snow when it's warm. I think it's time to start looking toward severe weather season IMO. well its harder than jan, and February. But not compared to Dec or Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's also fairly easy to diagnose wishcasting from forecasting. None of the data I have looked at today (12z GFS, 12Z CMC, 12Z Euro, CFS) show a sustained warm-up of any sort. After a brief period of above normal temps, the trough comes back to the east and the PNA ridge goes back up. I wouldn't forecast any arctic outbreaks or severe cold, or even individual winter storms, with any confidence, but I would, based on an objective look at the preponderance of available evidence, suggest that below normal temps are much more likely than a quick transition to spring. Given that, winter storm possibilities should be greater than historical normals. Blocking continues to be absent. By the way, the CFS has looked much colder for the CONUS over the last 4 runs, which lends confidence to a colder than normal March. The Euro Weeklies apparently also suggest a colder pattern. Given all of that, a forecast for a much warmer pattern locking in may turn out correct. But it won't be based on much evidence available at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I get sick of hearing winter is over after February. I've gotten 6", 2", and 4.7" of snow in the month of March in the last 6 winters. Apparently, it very much is winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I get sick of hearing winter is over after February. I've gotten 6", 2", and 4.7" of snow in the month of March in the last 6 winters. Apparently, it very much is winter.In High Point, your basically in the MA , and you are in DTs clown maps, so I would be excited about March as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's an avg of of 2 inches per March over the past 6 years. That's a seasonal avg for some deep south posters on this board. I just hope it stays cold myself for a few more weeks atleast. Keeps all the fruit trees from jumping the gun and risking a late season freeze ruining those delicious peaches and fall apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The old saying March roars in like a lion a out like a lamb always proves true. This is do to the seasonal transition that always generates volatility. I'd say that transition this year may be coming late this up:oming week / early the following week. And then progress through its traditional step down over the next several weeks as the westerlies begin there retreat. So we should be in store for some big ticket event, possible events real soon. Could be in the form of severe or winter weather. I'd hedge on the winter scenerio just based on the routine or pattern we've been in the last third of winter. Eitheir way no denying spring will be here very soon. However it's only about 7 months before the annual "And so it begins" thread fires up in the main forum tracking snowpack over Siberia somwhere. Wonder if there will even be a need for it anymore, seeing how ludicrous cohen research looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 March 1, 2009 was a nice snowfall for winston salem. 8-10 inches on Friday gone by monday so we could work. Awesome storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Joe Bastardi thinks next winter will be similar to this winter because of the ocean temperatures in the the East Pacific. Eventually the Atlantic Water Temperatures will warm in the North, that will allow ridging in the NW Atlantic. Then -NAO will be frequent like the +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 In High Point, your basically in the MA , and you are in DTs clown maps, so I would be excited about March as well Using DT's snow conversions, I average about 20" of snow per March, though. That's an avg of of 2 inches per March over the past 6 years. That's a seasonal avg for some deep south posters on this board. I just hope it stays cold myself for a few more weeks atleast. Keeps all the fruit trees from jumping the gun and risking a late season freeze ruining those delicious peaches and fall apples. I think our long-run March average is 1.7", so we're on par, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It does look like there will be a good possibility for a winter storm next week. The question is how far east will it come. Looks like GFS has Raleigh right on the snow and rain line as usual for Thursday. But then our forecasted high for Thursday is 60. So either the high is too warm, or that is going to be a powerful cold front that comes through Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I get sick of hearing winter is over after February. I've gotten 6", 2", and 4.7" of snow in the month of March in the last 6 winters. Apparently, it very much is winter. I think most people just wish winter was over when March gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Really?? Another potential wintry weather event...LOL I guess there is good model agreement. We shall see. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This one is easy: MariettaWx wants spring to arrive soon; ergo, he finds tidbits, nuggets, facts, what-have-you that support his desire. franklin NCwx, GAstorm, and others are hoping for one last hurrah out of winter; ergo, they find tidbits, nuggets, facts, what-have-you that support their desires. You each think the other side is nuts. We all like to be right. Very few people like to admit when they are wrong. (I'm not saying anyone is wrong in this situation.) And frankly, some of us on this board just don't get along that well. The personalities don't all mix too well. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Personally, I'm hoping for more snowfall; thus, I'll choose to ignore a little NWS snippet for meaning much more than a short warm-up is coming. Bring back the Ice Age! Summer will be here soon enough. Why would I wish for patterns or look for signals that bring its return that much closer? I will fight for any last piece of evidence that leans toward winter still holding strong. Long live the cold temperatures! Good post! The last storm left me wanting more since we were supposed to see about double the amount of snow where I am. I also wanted it to go south a bit so everyone could get in on it. This late surge of winter weather seems to want to hang on a bit. I'm certainly hoping it can produce something soon before we officially change seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Really?? Another potential wintry weather event...LOL I guess there is good model agreement. We shall see. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Good video! Seems hard to believe we would have any chance of winter weather in March after the slow start this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That's an avg of of 2 inches per March over the past 6 years. That's a seasonal avg for some deep south posters on this board. I just hope it stays cold myself for a few more weeks atleast. Keeps all the fruit trees from jumping the gun and risking a late season freeze ruining those delicious peaches and fall apples. Yep me too. Wintry precip is fun, but more importantly, I really hate when the plants get faked into an early spring and then get damaged in freezes. Plus, I like not having to pay to run the AC before May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Next Thursday night Friday morning looking pretty good especially around wnc, upstate, e. tenn and n e ga. maybe Friday afternoon all the way down to Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Next Thursday night Friday morning looking pretty good especially around wnc, upstate, e. tenn and n e ga. maybe Friday afternoon all the way down to Raleigh. Local media *gasp* wral has us at 48 for Thursday with showers and sunny and 40 on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Glanced at the models this morning and after the potential for some type of rain to snow scenario late next week, the pattern doesn't appear to feature any substantial cold air or extended warm shots. Looks rather Marchish. If we are to get a late season winter storm, it would be good to see some anomalous cold on the horizon. It's still unbelievable how unfavorable the AO and NAO continue to be. I thought we'd see a period, at least, of negative values in one or both indexes in March. Even the PNA looks bad in the near to medium term. Don't know what the mechanism was that locked out blocking this winter, but whatever it was, nobody saw it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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