NCSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Ahhh, many thanks! I think I'll wait a day on the evolution, then. A lot of moving parts and a LOT of luck needed for my neck of the woods. Here is an evolution off the GFS I copied from another board, But illustrates what you need to rooting for if you want to see frozen one last time before spring kicks in. LP needs to slow down riding up behind the front or the front speed up and stall futher south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The Euro was absolutely crushing parts of the AL regions not too long ago.. not quite sure the evolution is very good for us this far East, but I guess it's worth watching. Odd setup. The Low popping right over SC will probably ruin our chances here in CAE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The Euro was absolutely crushing parts of the AL regions not too long ago.. not quite sure the evolution is very good for us this far East, but I guess it's worth watching. Odd setup. The Low popping right over SC will probably ruin our chances here in CAE though. This may be winters last gasp! I think NC may be ok, when are they not? Roxboro is the new Boston! I give a 1% chance of anybody in SC seeing any frozen precip from this set up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This may be winters last gasp! I think NC may be ok, when are they not? Roxboro is the new Boston! I give a 1% chance of anybody in SC seeing any frozen precip from this set up! So far even the 12z GFS is developing the Low over the AGS area. You guys might could squeeze something out up there. Waiting on new panels. Edit. It tries to get us all in SC with a bit of frozen/snowy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 IF the setup is anafrontal then looking at the details at this range is kinda pointless.....basically everywhere behind the front could see a change over to frozen.....the real key for amounts and duration is where the best jet streak setsup etc....this is going to be a overrunning type setup for most folks....Stil this setup should provide pockets of decent totals depending on the when and where of the little waves that ride along the front.....being in eastern NC I would love to see the SLP off the SE coast the models had forming Friday come back but as of now it appears that isn't in the cards.... The WPC explains it well as far as the timing and "pooling" of moisture go this could be a pretty big, widespread event for NC/north half of SC/ Northern AL/MS/GA.... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD213 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015VALID 12Z WED MAR 04 2015 - 12Z SUN MAR 08 2015 EXPECT A LEAD AND WAVY FRONT WILLPOOL MOISTURE AND FOCUS A POTENTIALLY LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TOHEAVIER PCPN ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US BOTH IN ADVANCE OF THEBOUNDARY AND ALSO WRAPPING BACK INTO THE TRAILING/MERGING ARCTICAIRMASS...ALL WITH QUITE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JETSUPPORT. THIS OFFERS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD WINTERPCPN THREAT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD WITHLEAD AND SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVES ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY WARM SECTORRAINS FUELED BY INCREASED GULF INFLOW/CONVERGENCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 So far even the 12z GFS is developing the Low over the AGS area. You guys might could squeeze something out up there. Waiting on new panels.We don't have much room for error. We need the cold to speed up or the low to slow down, or both! Whatever it shows for the time of arrival of the cold air,add 6-12 hours atleast , it ALWAYS takes longer to get over the apps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 We don't have much room for error. We need the cold to speed up or the low to slow down, or both! Whatever it shows for the time of arrival of the cold air,add 6-12 hours atleast , it ALWAYS takes longer to get over the apps! The post above ours makes good sense though.. will have to wait until much closer to see where the jet streaking occurs to get post frontal moisture. Right now, the "ptype" maps show a good bit of sleet towards Myrtle Beach.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z GFS came in with even more precip and a bigger storm. Hope that 5 to 6 it has for here is mostly snow. But either way it looks like a big hit on the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z GFS came in with even more precip and a bigger storm. Hope that 5 to 6 it has for here is mostly snow. But either way it looks like a big hit on the GFS now. i think everyone got zapped with the last threat that they are taking a break from model watching (i dont blame them) because this seems like a legit threat to me. always piques my interest when the gfs starts to trend towards a bigger event the closer we get. not sure if it has a shot to be all snow or even majority snow but i think the odds are good we have something on the ground late week. it is crazy how we have had 5 wintry events in the last week and a half with another chance for thurs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 i think everyone got zapped with the last threat that they are taking a break from model watching (i dont blame them) because this seems like a legit threat to me. always piques my interest when the gfs starts to trend towards a bigger event the closer we get. not sure if it has a shot to be all snow or even majority snow but i think the odds are good we have something on the ground late week.I will, it will be pre emergent! Cold wont be down here in time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 i think everyone got zapped with the last threat that they are taking a break from model watching (i dont blame them) because this seems like a legit threat to me. always piques my interest when the gfs starts to trend towards a bigger event the closer we get. not sure if it has a shot to be all snow or even majority snow but i think the odds are good we have something on the ground late week. it is crazy how we have had 5 wintry events in the last week and a half with another chance for thurs! We got 9"...not exactly zapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 We got 9"...not exactly zapped. im talking about the ga/sc people. you've done well this winter obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 12z has a nice snow for much of nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 We got 9"...not exactly zapped. I got pretty much zipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I will, it will be pre emergent! Cold wont be down here in time! Use barricade if u do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I got pretty much zipped. And we got zilched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 And we got zilched. Maybe we can cash in the end of the week. If not, we may get one more shot toward the end of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The models are laughable... Spring break at myrtle beach is gonna suck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 And we got zilched. Come north, we've got .3 of ice on trees, deck, and on the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Regarding any possible wintry threat to ATL on 3/5: The same mountains that help in CAD situations would tend to hurt in these types of situations. ATL has never had a major ZR from a slow moving shallow cold front (similar to this with WSW aloft). That being said, fwiw, the 12Z GFS is showing ~0.25" QPF with 2M temp.'s at 32 or lower on 3/5 resulting in a rain to ZR to IP to SN lasting in total 8-10 hours. Whereas nothing is impossible and some light wintry precip. near the end is believable, I'm choosing not to believe that ATL is going to get 8-10 hours of wintry precip adding to near 0.25" liquid equivalent with a normally drying stout NW wind blowing in. Just like the models underestimate the power of the wedge, they tend to underestimate the mountains holding cold air back until has largely dried out. That is my opinion about the 12Z GFS. I just saw the 12Z Euro, the King. It has about 1/25th of the amount of wintry precip. for Marietta as the 12Z GFS has ....that is, about .01". It has none further S and E. I believe the12Z Euro will end up verifying much better than the 12Z GFS because it is superior and is handling the local terrain much better. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Regarding any possible wintry threat to ATL on 3/5: The same mountains that help in CAD situations would tend to hurt in these types of situations. ATL has never had a major ZR from a slow moving shallow cold front (similar to this with WSW aloft). That being said, fwiw, the 12Z GFS is showing ~0.25" QPF with 2M temp.'s at 32 or lower on 3/5 resulting in a rain to ZR to IP to SN lasting in total 8-10 hours. Whereas nothing is impossible and some light wintry precip. near the end is believable, I'm choosing not to believe that ATL is going to get 8-10 hours of wintry precip adding to near 0.25" liquid equivalent with a normally drying stout NW wind blowing in. Just like the models underestimate the power of the wedge, they tend to underestimate the mountains holding cold air back until has largely dried out. That is my opinion about the 12Z GFS. I just saw the 12Z Euro, the King. It has about 1/25th of the amount of wintry precip. for Marietta as the 12Z GFS has ....that is, about .01". It has none further S and E. I believe the12Z Euro will end up verifying much better than the 12Z GFS because it is superior and is handling the local terrain much better. Opinions? I agree with this. The fact that the GFS is giving ATL that amount of frozen precipitation is ridiculous. The mountains will physically keep the cold air to the west, giving TN a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Regarding any possible wintry threat to ATL on 3/5: The same mountains that help in CAD situations would tend to hurt in these types of situations. ATL has never had a major ZR from a slow moving shallow cold front (similar to this with WSW aloft). That being said, fwiw, the 12Z GFS is showing ~0.25" QPF with 2M temp.'s at 32 or lower on 3/5 resulting in a rain to ZR to IP to SN lasting in total 8-10 hours. Whereas nothing is impossible and some light wintry precip. near the end is believable, I'm choosing not to believe that ATL is going to get 8-10 hours of wintry precip adding to near 0.25" liquid equivalent with a normally drying stout NW wind blowing in. Just like the models underestimate the power of the wedge, they tend to underestimate the mountains holding cold air back until has largely dried out. That is my opinion about the 12Z GFS. I just saw the 12Z Euro, the King. It has about 1/25th of the amount of wintry precip. for Marietta as the 12Z GFS has ....that is, about .01". It has none further S and E. I believe the12Z Euro will end up verifying much better than the 12Z GFS because it is superior and is handling the local terrain much better. Opinions? The whole downsloping thing could be a issue that way, its not really something we deal with on that scale here though so I cant really make a guess on that.........but the key to this thing is the placement of the front and the fact it isn't blasting all the way through and instead hanging up off the SE coast allowing waves of LP and the STJ to set up to produce overrunning more or less. So maybe IF the front/STJ configurations stays good for a extended period there will be time for both the cold and the moisture to be there together. Again this is somewhat of a unusual setup and the cold air going to be being pumped in nice and strong and if we do get a overrunning STJ all kinds of crazy stuff can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I agree with this. The fact that the GFS is giving ATL that amount of frozen precipitation is ridiculous. The mountains will physically keep the cold air to the west, giving TN a good storm. This isn't correct there will be plenty of cold air east of the MTS even in N GA, again it depends on when and where...this could be a much longer duration event than what the models hint at a stalled/washed out frontal boundry with a strong cold arctic high pumping into the back of it with a overrunning STJ could be a really insane thing see much less in March This 2M shot is insane for March on the snow cover in NC that's a 3 at RDU and 7 here WTF...also if that snow map comes true I would be insanely happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 did the euro have the storm still? cant tell on my crappy free maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 did the euro have the storm still? cant tell on my crappy free maps From the maps I saw at the other place, it does but doesn't look as impressive as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 From the maps I saw at the other place, it does but doesn't look as impressive as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Im focusing my job search on TN and MI, and AL. This state sucks for winter weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The long wave trough pattern would suport some fun n games by the end of next week, if it's to be beleived. This one we are about finished going through over the past 2 weeks, was a slam dunk as far as being full of potential and easy to recognize. Well see if the signal is still showing by Sunday consistently, if so I'll consider firing up the bus again. Had a nice 2 week ride, but it still has a little bit of gas in the tank for one more quick trip. Well I usually only fire the bus up if I feel its a sure thing. But what the heck, if it crashes and burns Ill get another next season. It's ready to roll for Thursday's event, who's on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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