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BIG FROSTY

Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III

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Wanted to see if Frosty could turn this sinking ship around and get it on a cold and wintry course!!!  No one has been able to deliver the goods so far, So let a snowman try to bring the mojo..... What better way to start off a New Year! Happy New Year SE Crew!!!! :snowman:

 

Mods delete if you don't want another one started! Just trying to change things up!!! lol

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NCSkywarn - to your ZR question (topic got locked on me)...it's close to ZR in all those hours...issue could be a few things, I haven't seen the soundings, but I'm only guessing that the ground temp is either not cold enough (just below freezing at 300 and 312), the melting/warm layer might be too large causing complete melting, not enough time to supercool the rain drops, I'm guessing there's too much warmth somewhere in the sounding and not enough could at the surface...I think 925mb's aren't that cold at 300 and 312 as well from text output I saw. Bottom line is, it's close...might as well be ZR this far out.

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Yay, Frosty! Something tells me you're going to do it, maybe even for Waycross!

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Yay, Frosty! Something tells me you're going to do it, maybe even for Waycross  Gainesville (the southern one)!

 Have to think BIG, after all!!!!

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Jon, I think it showed the 2m temp as 29-31 for all those hours, so I'm guessing it's just an error, not that it matters at this point.

yeah no sense to dissect it right now obviously haha...just trying to think what the model saw...probably issues with the warm layer.

 

Also I've been on the cold/snow train, caboose for people who remember, don't take my spot!!! :)

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C'mon Frosty!  Maybe 2015 will be the year known for an unexpected, record-breaking mega-snowstorm or ice storm!

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"Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III"                                

                  This time its for real!

 

 

WorstSnow_main_0222.jpg

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Rdu as of 12/30/14

Will finish Dec + 1.4 (possibly lower considering today's below avg temp hasn't been factored in yet).

November was -5.2

Dec precip is way above normal like 130%.

Still plenty of time to write the history on this winter. The one thing that matters most to me is getting avg snowfall ++++. And in that department we are getting shutout at the moment. But as webber has explained very well, we got a long ways to go and payday is still several weeks away, knock on wood.

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Well, ladies and gents...After thinking over everything, I have un-cnxld my page. I realize that there is MANY on here that rely on this page for the videos and posts. Also, you guys help me learn a lot and have some GREAT feedback, so...I will continue to keep this going. I think for now, I will at least post a video everyday. More weather here, when it warrants it. Thank you everyone for the great feedback. I really do keep this page up because of yall! -Chris  *NEW** videos are up right now.  Thanks everyone. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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18z GFS ENSEMBLE 2-meter temps....I think the cold train is coming Jan 8th...high for RDU is 34, FWIW.

 

otXv0rz.png

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18z GFS ENSEMBLE 2-meter temps....I think the cold train is coming Jan 8th...high for RDU is 34, FWIW.

otXv0rz.png

EPS control run went warmer in that time period but the good news is it built a trof in at the end of the run

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GFS PARA looks really good after hour 160....has a much colder look than the OP at the same time period. We'll see where it eventually ends up going. 

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GFS PARA looks really good after hour 160....has a much colder look than the OP at the same time period. We'll see where it eventually ends up going.

It makes me feel good to see the para showing cold, actually.

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