January Banter

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I'm so tempted to start my vacation early, hop in my car Sunday night and make the 900 mile drive to NYC.

[mackerel_sky]

I think a lot of people in this forum are crying while looking at the models too.

True! And this may have been your best post ever!

[JoshM]

My response to this entire winter...

 

[packbacker]

Things went from bad to worse last night, LOL. Peeked at the GEFS and it only has like 2 out of 20 members with an event. It takes us to like Feb 9th which is great news as that only leaves 19 more days until March, woohoo.

I looked back at the past 30 winters for RDU where it didn't record measurable snow in Jan and couldn't find a single one that hit climo. In fact the average is probably less then a inch, probably much less. Oh yeah, it's going to snow, LOL.

Edit: Just looked at the EPS, ROFL. Pattern is breaking down day 9-10, ridge is flattened, being replaced by a trough in the west.

[jshetley]

Sound like it's time to write this winter off. Hard to believe, but winter weather wise it'll be even worse than 2011-2012. 

[Webberweather53]

Things went from bad to worse last night, LOL. Peeked at the GEFS and it only has like 2 out of 20 members with an event. It takes us to like Feb 9th which is great news as that only leaves 19 more days until March, woohoo.

I looked back at the past 30 winters for RDU where it didn't record measurable snow in Jan and couldn't find a single one that hit climo. In fact the average is probably less then a inch, probably much less. Oh yeah, it's going to snow, LOL.

Edit: Just looked at the EPS, ROFL. Pattern is breaking down day 9-10, ridge is flattened, being replaced by a trough in the west.

 

? Even in winters that were shutout thru the end of January there are at least 4 examples since 1950 of Raleigh going well above climatology...

 

1959-60

Nov 0.0"

Dec 0.0"

Jan 0.0"

Feb 4.7"

Mar 14.1"

 

1977-78

Nov 0.0"

Dec 0.0"

Jan 0.0"

Feb 9.0"

Mar 1.8"

 

1982-83

Nov 0.0"

Dec 0.0"

Jan 0.0"

Feb 2.7"

Mar 7.3"

 

1983-84

Nov 0.0"

Dec 0.0"

Jan 0.0"

Feb 6.9"

Mar 0.0"

[magpiemaniac]

We'll get a 1" consolation snow at the end of February and pretend that it makes up for this disaster of a winter.

[FallsLake]

Things went from bad to worse last night, LOL. Peeked at the GEFS and it only has like 2 out of 20 members with an event. It takes us to like Feb 9th which is great news as that only leaves 19 more days until March, woohoo.

I looked back at the past 30 winters for RDU where it didn't record measurable snow in Jan and couldn't find a single one that hit climo. In fact the average is probably less then a inch, probably much less. Oh yeah, it's going to snow, LOL.

Edit: Just looked at the EPS, ROFL. Pattern is breaking down day 9-10, ridge is flattened, being replaced by a trough in the west.

I still think we're in the hunt. This mornings 6z GFS does not produce a lot of snow but it does produce some (weak system of NC coast). This system is still 7 days out and we've gotten various model run solutions whereas some are good, some are bad, and some are ok. Players are definitely there; we're now in the timespan to hopefully see them come together.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=162ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_162_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150125+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[Cold Rain]

Winter is over folks. Just face it and move on.

[FallsLake]

6z GFS total snow cover at 168 hours:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=06&fhour=168&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Not much and this would screw RDU but at this timespan all you want is a system and air cold enough to support it.

[burgertime]

6z GFS total snow cover at 168 hours: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=06&fhour=168&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Not much and this would screw RDU but at this timespan all you want is a system and air cold enough to support it.

 

Yep gotta see if other runs start seeing that. It's easy to hit the panic button right now but a lot of the players won't be really on the field until Tuesday. 5 days away if we have a system coming with cold air in place there is plenty of time for it to trend in our favor. 

[packbacker]

I still think we're in the hunt. This mornings 6z GFS does not produce a lot of snow but it does produce some (weak system of NC coast). This system is still 7 days out and we've gotten various model run solutions whereas some are good, some are bad, and some are ok. Players are definitely there; we're now in the timespan to hopefully see them come together.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=162ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_162_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=dom_precip_type&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150125+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

Virtually no ensemble support...

[Cold Rain]

It seems like there are only two options that the operational models are seeing anymore:

1) Either the energy rots in the SW and we're cold and dry, or

2) It comes out and cuts.

Overrunning isn't going to happen. That doesn't happen anymore. It's as extinct as the dinosaurs.

[packbacker]

Yep gotta see if other runs start seeing that. It's easy to hit the panic button right now but a lot of the players won't be really on the field until Tuesday. 5 days away if we have a system coming with cold air in place there is plenty of time for it to trend in our favor. 

 

Is Jon with you on your boat...

[packbacker]

It seems like there are only two options that the operational models are seeing anymore:

1) Either the energy rots in the SW and we're cold and dry, or

2) It comes out and cuts.

Overrunning isn't going to happen. That doesn't happen anymore. It's as extinct as the dinosaurs.

 

LOL, yep.  I am more pissed at myself that I have wasted so much time on this board over the past few months and we literally have not seen a flake and there are no signs of that happening.

 

I am temped to put my TV outside my window and turn on the weather channel so when they are live covering this historic blizzard from Times Square it will almost be like I am there.

 

I am taking a break from the site, hopefully till the next winter when it snows here.

[FallsLake]

Virtually no ensemble support...

Hay there was a half inch on that one map...lol. Hopefully things start rending in our favor today or even tomorrow.

 

On a side not maybe we can get a surprise for this system early next week. High resolution NAM at hr 48(grasping at straws? maybe but what else to do at this point):

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F06%2Fnam-hires_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=048&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150125+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[packbacker]

? Even in winters that were shutout thru the end of January there are at least 4 examples since 1950 of Raleigh going well above climatology...

 

1959-60

Nov 0.0"

Dec 0.0"

Jan 0.0"

Feb 4.7"

Mar 14.1"

 

1977-78

Nov 0.0"

Dec 0.0"

Jan 0.0"

Feb 9.0"

Mar 1.8"

 

1982-83

Nov 0.0"

Dec 0.0"

Jan 0.0"

Feb 2.7"

Mar 7.3"

 

1983-84

Nov 0.0"

Dec 0.0"

Jan 0.0"

Feb 6.9"

Mar 0.0"

 

Thanks!  I went back 30 winters, I should have gone back 32 years.  But, just shows how rare it is.  The 80's had early Feb storms, which ain't happening this winter.

[burgertime]

Is Jon with you on your boat...

 

You were saying the exact same stuff all last winter. You have more self pity than a lifetime movie on at 3 in the afternoon. 

[calculus1]

You were saying the exact same stuff all last winter. You have more self pity than a lifetime movie on at 3 in the afternoon. 

 

  Okay, that was funny.

[Cold Rain]

Thanks! I went back 30 winters, I should have gone back 32 years. But, just shows how rare it is. The 80's had early Feb storms, which ain't happening this winter.

Haha! Prolly right. But hopefully, being on the board means more than just tracking phantom winter storms.

[Shack]

You were saying the exact same stuff all last winter. You have more self pity than a lifetime movie on at 3 in the afternoon. 

Now, that, was funny.

 

And as for our Feb1-2 system, not that I have a synoptical(sp) reasoning, but in the years(about 6) of being on the board and following the models, I don't recall a 5h low closing off and sitting and spinning over Mexico for 4 solid days.  Memory could certainly be wrong, though.

Am I wrong with that thought?

[timnc910]

The weather channel makes me sick..saying this blizzard is crippling and paralyzing... all i care about it is making a 50/50 for us to help hold some cold around..

[packbacker]

You were saying the exact same stuff all last winter. You have more self pity than a lifetime movie on at 3 in the afternoon. 

 

I will check back next week to see how your mythical winter storms are doing.

[strongwxnc]

The one difference in this, so far ****ty winter, is the lack of fantasy snow for MBY. Other than the few runs a few days backs that dropped 10"+.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tacoma]

What makes me sick is my daughter in New Hampshire has had a couple of good snows already and we've had hardly anything and we can't even get a 2 inch snowfall let alone a good snowstorm.  Now I look at her forecast and starting late Monday night thru Wednesday she is expecting blizzard conditions with one to two feet of snow and we can't get two inches,,,,how sad is this winter?   

[Tacoma]

The one difference in this, so far ****ty winter, is the lack of fantasy snow for MBY. Other than the few runs a few days backs that dropped 10"+.

Sent from my iPhone

sorry about the complaining but this is true we've hardly had fantasy storms to track.  what is it with this winter even here in the mtns. of nc.

[Cold Rain]

I will check back next week to see how your mythical winter storms are doing.

Sorry man.

[Brick Tamland]

So the models keep showing something different every day but we still can't see what we want. This is getting awful. Seems like pretty much a lock if the models show a snow storm 10 or more days out for the first time then it is not going to happen. We don't have a real shot unless it shows up inside 5 days for the first time.

[Batman]

It seems to me that many of us here in the SE forum are like a 5'10" 200 lb. white guy that loves basketball, but gets mad most of the time he is playing because he can't dunk like Kevin Durant. Mad to the point that he can't enjoy playing the game much of the time. He suffers from unrealistic expectations. He is not going to dunk like Durant unless some unusual things happen in his favor (like somebody puts a chair under the basket). If he loves the game, he should probably focus more on his jump shots and free throws (rain? thunderstorms?) and not get too worked up over unrealistic expectations. I am still holding out hope that there is a shot that someone puts the chair under the basket for us before the winter is over. If not, I will enjoy working on my jump shot and free throws.

[metalicwx366]

Lol @ folks crying looking at the models.

Lol @ folks bitching about only getting 12 inches of snow when this just was an OTS Friday.

We might as well cry too because we ain't getting no storm anytime soon according to the models. Good thing Jburns closed the fabulous February thread. Might want to reopen it and name it fail February.