40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Man, I'd rather a simple miss than a UK/GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That's epic looking on the Ukmet. 24 hours to get from south of LI to like Cape Anne. Well the Canadian and Ukie still got it. Ukie seems pretty mild for many though. Good for you out that way and also probably a good dump for maybe ORH on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 EURO looks like it will have it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 EURO looks like it will have it again. It does, out to 120 hours, seems delayed even further compared to 12z, about 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It does, out to 120 hours, seems delayed even further compared to 12z, about 6 hours It does...It seems like its cutting it in a little bit further west. like near BOS or right around there. SEEMS** further west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2014 Author Share Posted December 5, 2014 That is a totally whacked out Euro run...full on phase with the northern jet....it actually retros the low into N NH and then back SW into SE NY...lol. Good snows for NY State and western NE...though everyone flips to snow when the retro job occurs. It's going to take a while before know what this one does. Amazing that the GFS still basically has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 988mb over BOS....man what a difference between GFS and ECM. Warm though. Rain even up here? Isothermal maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 That is a totally whacked out Euro run...full on phase with the northern jet....it actually retros the low into N NH and then back SW into SE NY...lol. Good snows for NY State and western NE...though everyone flips to snow when the retro job occurs. It's going to take a while before know what this one does. Amazing that the GFS still basically has nothing. Oh god no....that sounds like 2/26/10 on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It does, out to 120 hours, seems delayed even further compared to 12z, about 6 hours This one is in its death spiral as far as I'm concerned. Should be a good event to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I am I seeing this right....does it go from NH back to CT between 126hr and 132hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 988mb over BOS....man what a difference between GFS and ECM. Warm though. Rain even up here? Isothermal maybe. I think you're in a pretty good spot... early congrats! I am I seeing this right....does it go from NH back to CT between 126hr and 132hr? Pretty much, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm checking out on this one Matt, let me know when the watches come out, or lack thereof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Oh god no....that sounds like 2/26/10 on crack. The funny thing is the Canadian sniffed out 2/26/10 at 240 hours before any other model and I think it was the first to have this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think you'll be in a pretty good spot... early congrats! Like 24 hours of 0C at 925mb. Its pretty warm. Wraps warm air in as it goes, looks like that system from 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I looked at the wxbell snow maps out of curiosity and they look much more realistic for this run, for some odd reason. Almost no snow for much of SNE including nearly all of CT, RI, and most of MA. Just don't get those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm checking out on this one Matt, let me know when the watches come out, or lack thereof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The funny thing is the Canadian sniffed out 2/26/10 at 240 hours before any other model and I think it was the first to have this storm Hmmm....it's a little bit like the broken clock syndrome that Will alluded to earlier. A model that shows a bomb all the time will be right once in a while (when a bomb actually verifies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 back@ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Hmmm....it's a little bit like the broken clock syndrome that Will alluded to earlier. A model that shows a bomb all the time will be right once in a while (when a bomb actually verifies). Yeah, pretty much how if this whole thing shifts 150 miles east people will think the GFS got it right, well it won't...at this point some big storm will form but it may be 150 miles east of this so the GFS could ultimately back into the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Your lips to god's ears. Kevin FTW maybe on track, but please no further west. Oh god no....that sounds like 2/26/10 on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Well that was an ugly op/ens run. I wish we were still seeing that strong CAD signal. It's interesting that the euro got a lot stronger with that nrn stream system like the GFS has been doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 What a shock. Rain to Montreal . Dear God And with full ENS support Hope for flurries on the backside if you want snow in most of New England outside of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 6z GEFS mean more amplified. 500mb closes off over Eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 BOX is bullish for a colder scenario--at least in GC. Monday: Partly sunny. Cold with highs in the upper 20s.Monday Night: Snow likely. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.Tuesday: Snow likely with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s.Wednesday Through Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Lows in the lower 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 BOX is bullish for a colder scenario--at least in GC. Monday: Partly sunny. Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Monday Night: Snow likely. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent. Tuesday: Snow likely with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Wednesday Through Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Lows in the lower 20s. Just look at who was on the desk.. It's going over E Mass..That's almost a lock now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Lousy pattern = lousy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It was always, and still is, thread the needle. I'm with Jerry, I like the fact that we are seeing a lot of coastals and just precip events in general. Keep that up and we could have some pretty epic two week stretches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Just look at who was on the desk.. It's going over E Mass..That's almost a lock now Well, in that case, I wouldn't be fretting in IA over a missed snow storm. If it's a rainer, may need to wait toward New Year's for snow--at least outside of some rogue event in a horrible, horrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Ensembles are still just east of the Cape which is good for wrn MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 its not a horrible run. ITs still close to a big hit in my opinion . it looks like when it gets captured up near Portsmouth, 850's on the back side are crashing below zero and when it occludes and becomes vertically stacked the cold air wraps right into the center as it it retrogrades westward. obviously with the track right over us we have to worry about dry air entrainmentand the best for forcing and dynamics get pushed off to our north and westbut it doesn't look horrible in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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