Zir0b Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Zirob would you like to elaborate, how I'm a weenie for a simple post about what the nam shows.. Not even my opinion about the nam, but only what it shows. And somehow I'm a location weenie? Sounds like you don't like what nam put out so you attack me? Am I wrong?.. Cause if you would like we can go back and find ALL my posts and not 1 single mention about my location and what I need for this to be a good storm up here.. But all I see is people whining about there back yards and blah blah blah.. Showing what a model shows no matter how accurate that model may be is not being a weenie, it's givin people's information.... My friend I didn't say that. That was someone else. I was just simply poking fun by pointing out your location. Didn't call you a weenie or criticize anyone about what the NAM was showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 My friend I didn't say that. That was someone else. I was just simply poking fun by pointing out your location. Didn't call you a weenie or criticize anyone about what the NAM was showing But that's my point, I know where I live, and I'm about as far from a weenie as they come, i also do not post imby comments EVER and I was doubting that blizzard all night cause the short term sim radars didn't like it....and was getting badgered then... In any effect people need to stop taking posts about a model personally, I took these personally cause they were in fact directed towards me, not a model.... Voice your frustration about the models but not the people describing what they show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 18z NAM predicts...Dallas wins Superbowl XLIX. On a more serious note, I believe all the guidance needs to be considered right now given that the event is still more than 48 hours away. While the NAM's solution is probably a lower probability scenario, perhaps something close to one end of the proverbial spectrum of possible outcomes. It still looks like a pretty decent snowfall across much of the Metro area and suburbs, but final details remain to be resolved. I suspect an ECMWF-GFS compromise makes the most sense right now, but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 18z NAM predicts...Dallas wins Superbowl XLIX. On a more serious note, I believe all the guidance needs to be considered right now given that the event is still more than 48 hours away. While the NAM's solution is probably a lower probability scenario, perhaps something close to one end of the proverbial spectrum of possible outcomes. It still looks like a pretty decent snowfall across much of the Metro area and suburbs, but final details remain to be resolved. I suspect an ECMWF-GFS compromise makes the most sense right now, but we'll see what happens. Haha, not Washington? That would be a more NAM-esque solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Haha, not Washington? That would be a more NAM-esque solution! I believe that might be the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I believe that might be the next run. Right right, needs to ingest the new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Word's out about Sunday-Monday's storm. People are already talking about 12-24 in Boston because a social media modelogist posted something. As much as I love weather, I hate the fact that social media has given anyone with a model and enough confidence to gain credibility. It undermines real meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 can't wait to laugh at everyone monday morning when the rain starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 can't wait to laugh at everyone monday morning when the rain starts lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lol..you'll be sniffing the rain too, pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 you'll be sniffing the rain too, pal Never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 you'll be sniffing the rain too, palMaybe 25 degree rain for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 you'll be sniffing the rain too, palLooks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Maybe 25 degree rain for him.Now that would make for a bullet proof pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Now that would make for a bullet proof pack.Its not getting any warmer there. That I'm certain of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Now that would make for a bullet proof pack. Snowpack in May? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EPS + GEFS shows +PNA as far as the eye can see, Canada is frigid too (we are too, looks like), I get the feeling FEB is going to look like this in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snowpack in May? lol..Well, we do have the remnants of the ice storm from a couple of weeks ago under multiple layers of snow already. It's a hell of a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Are models showing anything for next Wed or Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 But that's my point, I know where I live, and I'm about as far from a weenie as they come, i also do not post imby comments EVER and I was doubting that blizzard all night cause the short term sim radars didn't like it....and was getting badgered then... In any effect people need to stop taking posts about a model personally, I took these personally cause they were in fact directed towards me, not a model.... Voice your frustration about the models but not the people describing what they show But that's my point, I know where I live, and I'm about as far from a weenie as they come, i also do not post imby comments EVER and I was doubting that blizzard all night cause the short term sim radars didn't like it....and was getting badgered then... In any effect people need to stop taking posts about a model personally, I took these personally cause they were in fact directed towards me, not a model.... Voice your frustration about the models but not the people describing what they show Look, you post some meaningful stuff. But with all due respect, you are a tad irritable. Take it down a notch. Can't get bent out of shape over comments. Look at Snow88, people throw jabs at him all the time and he never hits back. Ok he's a big snow weenie but still....most of us are or we wouldn't be here. Me, I'm only here in the winter, unless a huge hurricane is coming, and that ain't often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hey guys, let's analyze the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 what is it with you new yorkers and blocking the left lane? omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 what is it with you new yorkers and blocking the left lane? omg Usually only happens when someone w jersey plates is tailgating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Look, you post some meaningful stuff. But with all due respect, you are a tad irritable. Take it down a notch. Can't get bent out of shape over comments. Look at Snow88, people throw jabs at him all the time and he never hits back. Ok he's a big snow weenie but still....most of us are or we wouldn't be here. Me, I'm only here in the winter, unless a huge hurricane is coming, and that ain't often. I'll just keep my posts to NW burbs forum cause as soon as models start trending out of someone's favor it's instantly hostile in those storm threads.. if the nam showed 2 feet for those couple of guys they would be spitting some nonsense about how it's a viable solution... The burbs and city bickering is redic and I'm over it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Now that would make for a bullet proof pack. I never hated getting sleet when there was already a snowpack. Turning it all into cement isn't as bad as you'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe it will find a home here; having been safely minimized by me... I look at the ECMWF, GFS, NAM, GGEM, RGEM, GEM-LAM (great is short range for snow precision)...I don't really look at the UKMET much, I do look at the ARW & NNM (which nailed Monday's cutoff)....the HRRR & RAP in the short range)...and I once lived & died with the SUNY MM5...the best rain / snow line model ever...but it seems to have been discontinued. You can end up looking at too many...as was the case on Monday...the ensembles (mainly GFS) I check occasionally...but it can get to be too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Apparently the model maintained by the ECMWF has its own name... the Integrated Forecast System. I always assumed it was a Frankenstein kind of deal where the creator had a name but not the product. Who knew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe it will find a home here; having been safely minimized by me... I look at the ECMWF, GFS, NAM, GGEM, RGEM, GEM-LAM (great is short range for snow precision)...I don't really look at the UKMET much, I do look at the ARW & NNM (which nailed Monday's cutoff)....the HRRR & RAP in the short range)...and I once lived & died with the SUNY MM5...the best rain / snow line model ever...but it seems to have been discontinued. You can end up looking at too many...as was the case on Monday...the ensembles (mainly GFS) I check occasionally...but it can get to be too much. ..no matter how you slice this pie a tricky forecast IMO .for sunday night Monday .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ..no matter how you slice this pie a tricky forecast IMO .for sunday night Monday .. You know, I suffer from an ulcer...and after all those perfectly reasonable posts of mine were sent to the garbage bin...including the one you quoted that I was able to rescue...its been hurting ever since...that was not such a nice thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 what is it with you new yorkers and blocking the left lane? omg Idiots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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