Whineminster Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Squirrels galore here this fall. The last two years they had basically disappeared imby I didn't have many the past couple years either...now I see them everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Fat squirrels at that. They are a plague. At least the last two storms blew the nests off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yeah I suppose if we can grab a little ridging in Greenland maybe we can pop something. At least nrn Canada to about Hudson Bay look pretty chilly. The AO and NAO also don't become very positive either. Would be nice to grab something next weekend. Next weekend is still somewhat compelling. After that, I think we'll struggle for a time with the pacific in limbo and the NAO not cooperating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Next weekend is still somewhat compelling. After that, I think we'll struggle for a time with the pacific in limbo and the NAO not cooperating. Yeah I don't expect much in November, but it would be satisfying to come out of this cold spell with something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 NAM is shaping up to be pretty warm for the upcoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 NAM is shaping up to be pretty warm for the upcoming system. Cold November rain Hopefully the ski areas can get mostly snow but the mid levels have definitely trended warmer since midday yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 NAM is shaping up to be pretty warm for the upcoming system. Icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 This is a situational setup RGEM excelled in last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Ice jam flooding in the Montana in Nov none the less http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=mso&sid=MSO&pil=RVS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 This is a situational setup RGEM excelled in last year pretty warm, with ice in the berks at the very end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 pretty warm, with ice in the berks at the very end of the run Sucky run for all. 29.7/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 nam is not reliable beyond 24 hours if that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Sucky run for all. 29.7/16 Yep retreating highs, this is going down the drain today for you but the rest of us were nada anyways, on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 For anybody who relies on the CFS 2 for monthy temp forecasting..wow!! horrible for November..how wrong could you be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 nice , Ray might like this, love finding new snowfall histories from peeps back yards, since 1993 http://weather.levineonline.net/html_custom/SnowFall/index.shtml 22 this morning here. No bad for mid Novie. 33.2/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 GFS operational and upgrade look pretty crappy LP Storm track basically right over HFD/ORH. Maybe some early icing in berks and northern orh but pretty wet overall. Best chance of snow looks like the Dacks and Tug Hill area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Well, on the GFS, congrats to Watertown (NY) and the Tug. They're getting snows from the system and that whatever LES on the backside of this that kicks in. Umbrellas for NE. One up side for the relatively warm days coming up toward Thanksgiving, good opportunity to get the Christmas lights set without freezing your tuchas off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 22 this morning here. No bad for mid Novie. 33.2/21 I love how he put his totals in against Harveys forecast, thats good stuff to revisit. One glaring item is that it just shows how rare 12 inch storms are. Thats basically Wills new climo station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 That's not saying that PF country would get an early burst and some decent upslope wrap around on the 12Z GFS but looks like a changeover all the way to Interstate 87 in northern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 For those who relish winter profile events ... ironically it is the uber compressed, very fast flow in the mid levels that may circumstantially assist that appeal re that Monday+ event. When the geopotential medium has slower velocities, an embedded S/W with 90 or 100kts of wind may net-accelerate by some 50 or 60kts worth (just making the example here...) over a given location, and with that much acceleration, physically that is the cause for critical veering and backing in the intervening layers between 900 and 500mb levels. You really need those...well, have to have those actually for stronger cyclogenesis. In this case, we have really "too much of a good thing" in transpiring through this mad geopotential negative anomaly. The flow all around the circumvallate of the mean L/W is 90 to 110kts in situ prior to moving any S/W through. What that is doing ...and it can be seen plainly in the models ... is pulling up a large amount of deep S PWAT air for that Monday deal, while keeping the cyclone mechanics relatively weak. That has a icing potential there for me considering the antecedent air mass. A weak cyclone has less mechanics and the whole thing sets up a really ..kind of an ideal looking ageostrophic mess to me. Could be 31.8 with steady rain for a time, at places like FIT in N. Mass, with chimney smoke moving S at 4kts. All we have is the antecedent air mass, agreed. High pressure retreats E ... This will want to turn the flow S in tiem, ...but as the interior saturates with very low initial WB, we could establish a poorly modeled lower atmosphere inhibition (cold dense air), that starts draining. When I think a-priori in my own experience with icing is that they are typically rushed to end, and warm air is allowed to intrude too fast at all levels for that matter. Just something to keep in mine... In short, weaker but juicy system moves fast up into an antecedent cold environment ... Saturation and wet-bulbing create shallow inhibition in the interior that a weaker low may not have the mechanics to then scour out before the thing ends and a triple point of sort peels out S -E of those zones. I've seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The squall fetish folks may get their fill Tuesday/Wednesday as models hint at some lake streamers carrying well into the entire region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The squall fetish folks may get their fill Tuesday/Wednesday as models hint at some lake streamers carrying well into the entire region hi and yes next week looks like it belongs in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The squall fetish folks may get their fill Tuesday/Wednesday as models hint at some lake streamers carrying well into the entire region Enjoy the squall. IT's the only winter we're getting from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 hi and yes next week looks like it belongs in January By hook or crook we'll lay down a couple inches of pack for some of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 For anybody who relies on the CFS 2 for monthy temp forecasting..wow!! horrible for November..how wrong could you be Yeah that was just a wretched performance by the CFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Hopefully MPM has an alarm system. You could break in and nobody for miles would be there to help you. Applies to like 90% of NNE/CNE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Definitely a warmer look for Monday. Think we could grab a little snow and sleet before going over to rain. Such a narrow zone for all snow and meaningful precip. Adirondacks look best now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 It'll be interesting to see how things play out but the operational GFS continues to downplay any substantial warming after this week. If we mean warmer than now/today ...duh, it's whopper anomaly. Almost has to be warmer. But both the CDC and CPC agencies' PNA progs offer enough support for continuing NW flow in Canada to offset ...whatever it was we were looking at that got a warm chime going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Hopes for a sub-freezing are dashed. 33.6/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Ggem ICY NW CT up thru MPM area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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