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November Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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GEFS pretty insistent with an Aleutian low reload after Day 10.

A model war is ensuing. Euro ens really pushing the warm look for d9 through the end of the run. Gefs has been trending towards popping a western ridge by Dec 6th or so and trough east.

The euro is showing an Aleutian low AND goa trough at the same time so we still flood with Pac air. The cold in Canada is stonewalled. See the gefs trending the last couple days and signal getting strong probably means it's onto something

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Since the Euro is crushing dreams right now, I'll say the GEFS looks very nice in the long range with a strong Aleutian low/+PNA combo developing.  

 

 

 

I'll go ahead and be a downer. Looks like no blocking with progressive flow so it's transient. After the trough swings through it's back to pac air paradise. 

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Right where we want it at this lead.

 

I was really hoping the PV was going to go down in early Dec, both the Euro/GFS show it taking a beating the next 10 days but now the GFS has it re-stregthening in days 11-15....I don't have post 10 day Euro stratosphere plots.  Bummer....

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I'll go ahead and be a downer. Looks like no blocking with progressive flow so it's transient. After the trough swings through it's back to pac air paradise.

I retract this post. Looks like early signs are showing for a return to Aleutian low/+pna possibly lasting for more than 15 minutes. Guidance can't get a handle on the ao. Very jumpy every run. My wag is it generally remains negative but nothing extreme either way. Around the 8th or so looks like we move towards a better pattern. Hard to say.

At least we're quickly moving towards a climo period that doesn't need perfection to have some snow in the cities.

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Strong, coupled tropical forcing out of the IO domain for awhile. That's definitely a warm signal in the means.

That said, most guidance propagates things along as we move into mid-December. Should see another W-PAC burst in mid-December. This should favor an Aleutian low, amplified surf-zone, and possibly a SSW towards the holiday season. I suspect we'll start with a -EPO/+PNA and transition towards more of a -NAO look..

Until then, I think we're stuck in a somewhat zonal regime, with a +NAO/+EPO..

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I retract this post. Looks like early signs are showing for a return to Aleutian low/+pna possibly lasting for more than 15 minutes. Guidance can't get a handle on the ao. Very jumpy every run. My wag is it generally remains negative but nothing extreme either way. Around the 8th or so looks like we move towards a better pattern. Hard to say.

At least we're quickly moving towards a climo period that doesn't need perfection to have some snow in the cities.

Boom.  That's what I thought!

 

18z GEFS agrees.  

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