mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 don't know how accurate this is, but it sure is looking perty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Come at me bro....love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GEFS pretty insistent with an Aleutian low reload after Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GEFS pretty insistent with an Aleutian low reload after Day 10. A model war is ensuing. Euro ens really pushing the warm look for d9 through the end of the run. Gefs has been trending towards popping a western ridge by Dec 6th or so and trough east. The euro is showing an Aleutian low AND goa trough at the same time so we still flood with Pac air. The cold in Canada is stonewalled. See the gefs trending the last couple days and signal getting strong probably means it's onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 this is nice too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 December looks atrocious on CFS v2. showing record heat for December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The juicy Gulf of Mexico in November is a promising sign for potential down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 December looks atrocious on CFS v2. showing record heat for December I'm not familiar with that....is it a weather model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 December looks atrocious on CFS v2. showing record heat for December Right where we want it at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Since the Euro is crushing dreams right now, I'll say the GEFS looks very nice in the long range with a strong Aleutian low/+PNA combo developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Since the Euro is crushing dreams right now, I'll say the GEFS looks very nice in the long range with a strong Aleutian low/+PNA combo developing. I'll go ahead and be a downer. Looks like no blocking with progressive flow so it's transient. After the trough swings through it's back to pac air paradise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Right where we want it at this lead. I was really hoping the PV was going to go down in early Dec, both the Euro/GFS show it taking a beating the next 10 days but now the GFS has it re-stregthening in days 11-15....I don't have post 10 day Euro stratosphere plots. Bummer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just gotta wait for the heart of winter hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Winter doesn't look to get off to a promising start. Tomorrow looks like our only shot at snow for a while. Bummer indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Next two weeks look fine really. We have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Winter doesn't look to get off to a promising start. Tomorrow looks like our only shot at snow for a while. Bummer indeed. IMO anything before Dec 10th or even 20th is icing on the cake. Just so long as the torch isn't prolonged past mid-December, I'm ok with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Winter doesn't look to get off to a promising start. Tomorrow looks like our only shot at snow for a while. Bummer indeed. You and I both went low for the seasonal snow contest so its all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 As long as pattern gets ripe by Dec. 18 or so, all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 As long as pattern gets ripe by Dec. 18 or so, all good. Exactly. I'd happily punt the season's margins for sexy patterns during Christmastide and the real "snow season" (and I use that term loosely) around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'll go ahead and be a downer. Looks like no blocking with progressive flow so it's transient. After the trough swings through it's back to pac air paradise. I retract this post. Looks like early signs are showing for a return to Aleutian low/+pna possibly lasting for more than 15 minutes. Guidance can't get a handle on the ao. Very jumpy every run. My wag is it generally remains negative but nothing extreme either way. Around the 8th or so looks like we move towards a better pattern. Hard to say. At least we're quickly moving towards a climo period that doesn't need perfection to have some snow in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Strong, coupled tropical forcing out of the IO domain for awhile. That's definitely a warm signal in the means. That said, most guidance propagates things along as we move into mid-December. Should see another W-PAC burst in mid-December. This should favor an Aleutian low, amplified surf-zone, and possibly a SSW towards the holiday season. I suspect we'll start with a -EPO/+PNA and transition towards more of a -NAO look.. Until then, I think we're stuck in a somewhat zonal regime, with a +NAO/+EPO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I retract this post. Looks like early signs are showing for a return to Aleutian low/+pna possibly lasting for more than 15 minutes. Guidance can't get a handle on the ao. Very jumpy every run. My wag is it generally remains negative but nothing extreme either way. Around the 8th or so looks like we move towards a better pattern. Hard to say. At least we're quickly moving towards a climo period that doesn't need perfection to have some snow in the cities. Boom. That's what I thought! 18z GEFS agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Boom. That's what I thought! 18z GEFS agrees. Ha! I was just looking at the panels. I can live with a move back to a progressive but amplified pattern. We seem to like sneaking things in here. Better than a shutout pattern that we'll likely have all of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 New thread started. Please post there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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