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October 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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Euro ens on board with a fast hitting cold shot in the same time frame. Starting to look like a pretty legit chance of scoring freezes for IAD/BWI at least. Flips back to boring and warmish shortly afterwards. The only 2 things worth tracking for the next couple weeks is hitting 80 tues or wed and then knocking down some first freezes. 

 

We have to do something extreme for Oct. 29, so we may as well go for a record high (although we need a lot more trending warmer for that). Who cares if my first freeze is a total bust now lol

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Man, the 00z EURO completely ditched the cold in early November. The GFS is still showing it.

Euro still has the big cold hp pressing but an interesting solution in front of it. Sharp trough that goes negative and closes off a nasty ull. It starts spinning and fooks up the cold pressing in. Not much ensemble support for the storm but they warmed anyways.

Guidance is pointing towards an interesting period next weekend and beyond. Tightly spaced trough/ridge/trough may set up several times with Pac energy diving and possibly undercutting. Could be a couple chances at a coastal forming. Not snow or anything but and interesting period is better than a complete snoozefest.

One caveat to the spacing is it favors too far east for development but who knows. Just something to watch.

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I refuse to believe that coastal NC will get snow before me.

At least I would see a few flakes...

We all know...well, all rational people know the euro solution is highly to completely unlikely. I just like the signal for another closed ull/coastal storm. Seems like we have a better shot here with things being further south than the storm a couple days ago.

I know it would take a miracle to produce snow anywhere east of the mountains but I can totally get into howling winds and rain blowing sideways at times. It would be fun for sure.

Euro op is nutty but consistent in a big storm. Gfs is moving that way. Latest gefs is getting on board. Looking forward to 12z euro ens. Should be a fun tracking exercise.

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We all know...well, all rational people know the euro solution is highly to completely unlikely. I just like the signal for another closed ull/coastal storm. Seems like we have a better shot here with things being further south than the storm a couple days ago.

I know it would take a miracle to produce snow anywhere east of the mountains but I can totally get into howling winds and rain blowing sideways at times. It would be fun for sure.

Euro op is nutty but consistent in a big storm. Gfs is moving that way. Latest gefs is getting on board. Looking forward to 12z euro ens. Should be a fun tracking exercise.

I looked at the surface temps on the EURO, and during the storm, the lowest temps in coastal NC are around 35F. Snow can barely (maybe not at all) accumulate on frozen ground when the air temp is 34F-35F, let alone coastal NC in early November lol.

 

We would probably all see flakes if the 12z EURO verified, though.

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We all know...well, all rational people know the euro solution is highly to completely unlikely. I just like the signal for another closed ull/coastal storm. Seems like we have a better shot here with things being further south than the storm a couple days ago.

I know it would take a miracle to produce snow anywhere east of the mountains but I can totally get into howling winds and rain blowing sideways at times. It would be fun for sure.

Euro op is nutty but consistent in a big storm. Gfs is moving that way. Latest gefs is getting on board. Looking forward to 12z euro ens. Should be a fun tracking exercise.

does it show any snow here?

the Wunderground maps only go to 180 hrs. and it has the snow into WV and VA mts.

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does it show any snow here?

the Wunderground maps only go to 180 hrs. and it has the snow into WV and VA mts.

Think of the worst looking snow map you've seen...

 

That's what it looks like.

 

Seriously though, it shows some flakes here, with accumulation in the mountains, NC, PA, and everywhere else lol. It kinda looks like a horseshoe around MD/VA/DE.

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We all know...well, all rational people know the euro solution is highly to completely unlikely. I just like the signal for another closed ull/coastal storm. Seems like we have a better shot here with things being further south than the storm a couple days ago.

I know it would take a miracle to produce snow anywhere east of the mountains but I can totally get into howling winds and rain blowing sideways at times. It would be fun for sure.

Euro op is nutty but consistent in a big storm. Gfs is moving that way. Latest gefs is getting on board. Looking forward to 12z euro ens. Should be a fun tracking exercise.

What's the best open source site for euro ensembles?

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Think of the worst looking snow map you've seen...

 

That's what it looks like.

 

Seriously though, it shows some flakes here, with accumulation in the mountains, NC, PA, and everywhere else lol. It kinda looks like a horseshoe around MD/VA/DE.

that's about what I figure based on the maps from the free sites

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