PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Euro ens on board with a fast hitting cold shot in the same time frame. Starting to look like a pretty legit chance of scoring freezes for IAD/BWI at least. Flips back to boring and warmish shortly afterwards. The only 2 things worth tracking for the next couple weeks is hitting 80 tues or wed and then knocking down some first freezes. We have to do something extreme for Oct. 29, so we may as well go for a record high (although we need a lot more trending warmer for that). Who cares if my first freeze is a total bust now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Wind really keeping temps up this evening..still 61/42 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Eveyrbody make out ok in the big noreaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Eveyrbody make out ok in the big noreaster? I'm still recovering from the 0.16" of rain. It has taken me nearly a 1/2 roll of paper towels to dry up the puddles in my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I'm still recovering from the 0.16" of rain. It has taken me nearly a 1/2 roll of paper towels to dry up the puddles in my neighborhood. I blame you for having to mow my grass. I liked it better before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Diminishing winds ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Down to 53F inland, and 62F on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I blame you for having to mow my grass. I liked it better before. Sorry, man, but if I could make it rain, then you wouldn't see the sun shine here from May until October (and then not again from T-day to April for a different reason). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Sorry, man, but if I could make it rain, then you wouldn't see the sun shine here from May until October (and then not again from T-day to April for a different reason). Move to Juneau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 00z GFS tries to get some R/S mix in at 180hrs. I've been secretly stalking this event for a couple days now. Will probably turn into an Adirondack crusher if it phases, and just windy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 4th morning in low 30's of the season, low was 33.2 degrees, so far only 2 mornings at or below the freezing mark. Up to 36.5 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Low of 41F inland, and 47F on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Man, the 00z EURO completely ditched the cold in early November. The GFS is still showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Low of 41F. Not bad, but the dewpoint was in the mid 30s. Looks like we picked up a bit of a sw breeze pre-dawn which killed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 Man, the 00z EURO completely ditched the cold in early November. The GFS is still showing it. Euro still has the big cold hp pressing but an interesting solution in front of it. Sharp trough that goes negative and closes off a nasty ull. It starts spinning and fooks up the cold pressing in. Not much ensemble support for the storm but they warmed anyways. Guidance is pointing towards an interesting period next weekend and beyond. Tightly spaced trough/ridge/trough may set up several times with Pac energy diving and possibly undercutting. Could be a couple chances at a coastal forming. Not snow or anything but and interesting period is better than a complete snoozefest. One caveat to the spacing is it favors too far east for development but who knows. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 71/47 We have really had a ton of 10/10 days. "Too hot." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 "Too hot." You're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Stellar. 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Next Saturday looks downright wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Next Saturday looks downright wintry. Yes....awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm thinking about booking a room in va beach for a snow chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm thinking about booking a room in va beach for a snow chase I refuse to believe that coastal NC will get snow before me. At least I would see a few flakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 I refuse to believe that coastal NC will get snow before me. At least I would see a few flakes... We all know...well, all rational people know the euro solution is highly to completely unlikely. I just like the signal for another closed ull/coastal storm. Seems like we have a better shot here with things being further south than the storm a couple days ago. I know it would take a miracle to produce snow anywhere east of the mountains but I can totally get into howling winds and rain blowing sideways at times. It would be fun for sure. Euro op is nutty but consistent in a big storm. Gfs is moving that way. Latest gefs is getting on board. Looking forward to 12z euro ens. Should be a fun tracking exercise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 We all know...well, all rational people know the euro solution is highly to completely unlikely. I just like the signal for another closed ull/coastal storm. Seems like we have a better shot here with things being further south than the storm a couple days ago. I know it would take a miracle to produce snow anywhere east of the mountains but I can totally get into howling winds and rain blowing sideways at times. It would be fun for sure. Euro op is nutty but consistent in a big storm. Gfs is moving that way. Latest gefs is getting on board. Looking forward to 12z euro ens. Should be a fun tracking exercise. I looked at the surface temps on the EURO, and during the storm, the lowest temps in coastal NC are around 35F. Snow can barely (maybe not at all) accumulate on frozen ground when the air temp is 34F-35F, let alone coastal NC in early November lol. We would probably all see flakes if the 12z EURO verified, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 We all know...well, all rational people know the euro solution is highly to completely unlikely. I just like the signal for another closed ull/coastal storm. Seems like we have a better shot here with things being further south than the storm a couple days ago. I know it would take a miracle to produce snow anywhere east of the mountains but I can totally get into howling winds and rain blowing sideways at times. It would be fun for sure. Euro op is nutty but consistent in a big storm. Gfs is moving that way. Latest gefs is getting on board. Looking forward to 12z euro ens. Should be a fun tracking exercise. does it show any snow here? the Wunderground maps only go to 180 hrs. and it has the snow into WV and VA mts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 does it show any snow here? the Wunderground maps only go to 180 hrs. and it has the snow into WV and VA mts. Think of the worst looking snow map you've seen... That's what it looks like. Seriously though, it shows some flakes here, with accumulation in the mountains, NC, PA, and everywhere else lol. It kinda looks like a horseshoe around MD/VA/DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 We all know...well, all rational people know the euro solution is highly to completely unlikely. I just like the signal for another closed ull/coastal storm. Seems like we have a better shot here with things being further south than the storm a couple days ago. I know it would take a miracle to produce snow anywhere east of the mountains but I can totally get into howling winds and rain blowing sideways at times. It would be fun for sure. Euro op is nutty but consistent in a big storm. Gfs is moving that way. Latest gefs is getting on board. Looking forward to 12z euro ens. Should be a fun tracking exercise. What's the best open source site for euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 What's the best open source site for euro ensembles? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=0&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=0&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= that's actually the operational the ensembles are here, but you can play around up top with the links for more models http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t85p&HH=0&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Think of the worst looking snow map you've seen... That's what it looks like. Seriously though, it shows some flakes here, with accumulation in the mountains, NC, PA, and everywhere else lol. It kinda looks like a horseshoe around MD/VA/DE. that's about what I figure based on the maps from the free sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.