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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread


jburns

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I'm not thinking a washout for those inland...Carolina or GA coastline could go wet by Wednesday/Thurs...

 

But more clouds and wedge-like conditions will increase starting Thursday  farther west. Dewpoints will bounce back up as a result to the 50's, maybe as high as 60...

 

We seem to have entered a pattern where everything hangs up between I-20 and I-10...we can't get a powerful front to flush everything offshore.

Your right, it seems that every five/six day forecast of cool/dry has ended up coolish/wet. This definitely sucks for this time of year where we want the dryer solution (lower humidity). But come this winter, these types of patterns (setups) can be great for producing winter storms. I say keep them coming...
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We seem to have entered a pattern where everything hangs up between I-20 and I-10...we can't get a powerful front to flush everything offshore.

I'm good with that pattern come winter. Arctic front comes barreling through, stalls somewhere near I-20 then the high moves in. Next thing you know, low pressure is forming somewhere between NOLA and destin

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Quite a change in the forecast for Wed. We've gone from 20%-30% to 70% chance. And, to make it a little more miserable...

WIND: THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY...BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AS STRONG AS 30-40 KT. SHALLOW MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY PRECIPITATION /EVAP COOLING/ ON WED...ESP IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE A TIGHTER MSLP GRADIENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH DURING THE DAY WED. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS WOULD BE A WORST-CASE SCENARIO AND THAT WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH PERHAPS CAPABLE OF A FEW DOWNED TREES IN THE PRESENCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. -VINCENT
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Well...this is going about as expected...another advertised blast of fall air gets to about I-20 and then is shunted by some sort of marine influence.

 

 

I see the dewpoint boundary has went nowhere since last night, still sitting about 50 miles south of ATL. Central and South GA, South Carolina Low Country will remain in a late summer airmass (60 degree dewpoints).

 

This upper low in SC is throwing measurable precip all the way back to Greenville-Spartanburg and Charlotte, its keeping about 90 percent of NC in mid level overcast...

 

This looks to be the trend possibly through the weekend...our closed low in SC will begin to lift tomorrow and may allow brighter skies in western areas that are cloudy today, might also allow dewpoint boundary to get farther south in GA/SC.

 

However the global models are quickly converging to another closed off feature, this time in LA/MS, this will allow some moisture recovery for all of the southeast and by the weekend, some areas are getting wet...

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09/23/2014 12Z run of the GFS has 90 degree temps in Atlanta on Oct 6, sick of this..

 

 

We would currently be having a record hurricane season if the GFS verified at 13 days out this year.  Take it with a grain of salt and expect it to be a bit warmer but 90's would be unlikely unless they are showing up 3 days out.

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It's certainly possible of course, but not likely to see 90 in the ATL to CLT area in October. I do remember a streak of record setting days in October of 1986 of temps in the low to mid 90's though. That October was followed by one of the best winters I can remember around here. One big snowstorm in Jan and a sleetstorm in Feb along with several near misses.

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It's certainly possible of course, but not likely to see 90 in the ATL to CLT area in October. I do remember a streak of record setting days in October of 1986 of temps in the low to mid 90's though. That October was followed by one of the best winters I can remember around here. One big snowstorm in Jan and a sleetstorm in Feb along with several near misses.

 

A couple of years ago, we had some 90s in October around here.  That year featured a very hot summer.  I'll be glad when all of the talk of 90s is gone.  The Euro shows a few days in the longer range with big ridging over the east.  That looks to start to break down by D10.

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that is pretty much unheard of. I think the latest Atlanta has hit 90 is in early October.

 

Yes, sir, you're correct. The latest 90+ for KATL (sorry, Tony, I'm looking at the beloved airport again) was on 10/9. Also, the last time it hit 90+ on any day in Oct. was way back in 1954!

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Yes, sir, you're correct. The latest 90+ for KATL (sorry, Tony, I'm looking at the beloved airport again) was on 10/9. Also, the last time it hit 90+ on any day in Oct. was way back in 1954!

Did not know that. Would have thought it was later. At KDCA its October 11. 2007 featured a stretch of 4 90 degree days.

 

 

Latest one there recently was 10/9/2007 at 94 degrees,

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In case anyone is interested, these are verification scores for GSP POP averaged over the last 90 days. GSP's official fcst is the upper left and various guidances are shown in the other charts. These are reliability charts (fcst/obs)...basically how the fcst did wrt to obs. For example...on the Day 1 chart, GSP's POP of 50% was under forecasted...the actual POP was about 63%.

post-866-0-73628000-1411565483_thumb.png

post-866-0-14771400-1411565491_thumb.png

post-866-0-22272100-1411565498_thumb.png

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In case anyone is interested, these are verification scores for GSP POP averaged over the last 90 days. GSP's official fcst is the upper left and various guidances are shown in the other charts. These are reliability charts (fcst/obs)...basically how the fcst did wrt to obs. For example...on the Day 1 chart, GSP's POP of 50% was under forecasted...the actual POP was about 63%.

attachicon.gifpop1.png

attachicon.gifpop2.png

attachicon.gifpop3.png

When is the Eastern Region moving to the media style graphics? i thought this was in the works, but maybe I haven't looked in a while! :-)

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When is the Eastern Region moving to the media style graphics? i thought this was in the works, but maybe I haven't looked in a while! :-)

You mean like the "Weather Story" graphics? I'm not sure, but I imagine within the next year. I haven't heard any traffic on this. I'll ask our webmaster and let you know.

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You mean like the "Weather Story" graphics? I'm not sure, but I imagine within the next year. I haven't heard any traffic on this. I'll ask our webmaster and let you know.

If that's what they are calling it! :-) Like these: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_southern_region_slideshow.php

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GFS and Euro is coming into good agreement of an upper level low forming along the Lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and SFC/850 low coming out of the Gulf...just looking at the maps aloft, this should be a fairly slow mover with a good moisture tap

Look for future runs to begin ramping up the QPF from Mississippi northeast to the TN Valley/SoApps.

For clarification I'm talking in the Sunday- Tuesday timeframe.

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64 degrees for a high at KCLT yesterday. The coolest high for that day since 1995. 95-96 repeat incoming.

That was a very good winter down here! A couple of minor events and a few decent events, I think one was even an ULL event! I would take a 95/96

Redux in a heartbeat! I think that year featured an early event around Nov. 9th or so, where we had a car topper sleet/snow event, enough for a few snowballs and it was quiet till Jan, iirc!

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64 degrees for a high at KCLT yesterday. The coolest high for that day since 1995. 95-96 repeat incoming.

That was the winter that everyone in the dorms at NC State cut their trash cans and made sleds out of them.  Lots of snow with a THICK layer of Ice on top that you could not break through.  They delayed the start of the spring semester because the roads were so bad.  We went sledding down the hill in the quad area.  It seemed like one run lasted a half a mile.  The absolute best sledding that I had ever been a part of!

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