weatherwiz Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Last October was a torch. Meant the winter was awful. Hoping this October is the same to at least enjoy the 3 minute walk. Don't want a BA October. BA October's overall are pretty meh...no point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Beach bound, big swells today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Color seems to be doubling by the day here. Some nice color driving down 118 in Rehoboth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 The first color is starting to show up down here in NNJ. I would estimate that right now we're about 5-10% of peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 What a nice stretch of COC weather coming up over the next 10 days or so, Ended up yesterday with a rather meager 0.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I'm sure some of it is the natural progression of a more active jet and increasingly baroclinicity from climo, but we should start to see a more Fall like pattern developing in terms of typical storminess heading into October. Notice the big Bering Sea and Aleutian low and the heights amplified out west. It's not a cold pattern, but we are seeing the signs of more typical Fall-like pattern developing heading through October. I'm not trying to point out anything special, but I always find the change of seasons fascinating as they play out. It's never a gradual, slow process. It's usually a flip of the switch it seems. f384.gif Euro ensembles start getting the Aleutian low cranking by the end of the run. We want to see that going into October...a weak Aleutian low in Oct would be a bad sign going into a Nino winter. It's not a complete deal-breaker (2004 had basically no Oct aluetian low)...but I'd rather have it than not. Other years that didnt have it are 2006, 1994, 1991, 1982...kind of a crappy list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Pretty common color around here. Def quite a bit ahead of schedule..Looks like about 14 more days to peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Pretty common color around here. Def quite a bit ahead of schedule..Looks like about 14 more days to peak Our hills are usually 5-7 days ahead of the valley from what I see. My drive a few days a week brings me between Springfield and here and there's a lag time in the spring and fall. There's a lot less color down there right now. If we do peak in a couple of weeks, that would bring us to 10/6 and my anecdotal notes show that we usually peak (on average) 10/11 so 5 days ahead would not be that big of a deal. I remember one year in the late 80s that we didn't have any storms to knock the leaves down and you could drive from central CT to central VT and still be in peak foliage. I don't know how this year is going to be, but with the pattern, maybe would end of with something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Hopefully we can manage even slightly above-normal temperatures through October. Would be great to go to hockey games and not have to freeze going from the bar to the game. Last year was awful Man, I can't recall you ever acting like such an old lady. First lashing out at the winter crew becasue last summer wasn't to your liking, now this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Euro ensembles start getting the Aleutian low cranking by the end of the run. We want to see that going into October...a weak Aleutian low in Oct would be a bad sign going into a Nino winter. It's not a complete deal-breaker (2004 had basically no Oct aluetian low)...but I'd rather have it than not. Other years that didnt have it are 2006, 1994, 1991, 1982...kind of a crappy list. '82-'83 was actually near avg here, in large part owed to the megalopolis orgy....in which my area jacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Man, I can't recall you ever acting like such an old lady. First lashing out at the winter crew becasue last summer wasn't to your liking, now this. It'd been a dreadful last several months...once we near winter and get snow chances and hopefully snow I'll probably be happier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 '82-'83 was actually near avg here, in large part owed to the megalopolis orgy....in which my area jacked. Same deal in ORH too...the storm right before the megalopolis on 2/6-7 actually gave ORH the same amount of snow (16 inches in each one)...there was another pretty good storm about 2-3 weeks before that one too in January. But that winter was about 3-4 weeks long...got lucky in that streak. The immediate coast got tainted in those other two storms...hence the ugly 27.5" total for BOS. SE MA got hit good in a one-hit-wonder event in Dec '82....the famous "snow plow game" against the Dolphins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 It'd been a dreadful last several months...once we near winter and get snow chances and hopefully snow I'll probably be happier No explanation required. The last several years were hell for me....just trying to take some action to propel myself out of it. I've told you before, but your hard work is paying off. I've told you before, but I can see the change in you in person, and in your posts. Anyway.....weather. Last night was dreadful with the AC already stored away, and next weekend will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 No explanation required. The last several years were hell for me....just trying to take some action to propel myself out of it. I've told you before, but your hard work is paying off. I've told you before, but I can see the change in you in person, and in your posts. Anyway.....weather. Last night was dreadful with the AC already stored away, and next weekend will suck. Why would you remove the ac in September knowing this always happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Our hills are usually 5-7 days ahead of the valley from what I see. My drive a few days a week brings me between Springfield and here and there's a lag time in the spring and fall. There's a lot less color down there right now. If we do peak in a couple of weeks, that would bring us to 10/6 and my anecdotal notes show that we usually peak (on average) 10/11 so 5 days ahead would not be that big of a deal. I remember one year in the late 80s that we didn't have any storms to knock the leaves down and you could drive from central CT to central VT and still be in peak foliage. I don't know how this year is going to be, but with the pattern, maybe would end of with something like that. I think the lack of rainfall out your way must be playing a role. We have had pretty typical rainfall here in central NY; we typically peak around 10/5 or so and we seem to be right on track for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Why would you remove the ac in September knowing this always happens Because I want that season, and this year behind me as quickly as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Definitely a downslope dandy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Same deal in ORH too...the storm right before the megalopolis on 2/6-7 actually gave ORH the same amount of snow (16 inches in each one)...there was another pretty good storm about 2-3 weeks before that one too in January. But that winter was about 3-4 weeks long...got lucky in that streak. The immediate coast got tainted in those other two storms...hence the ugly 27.5" total for BOS. SE MA got hit good in a one-hit-wonder event in Dec '82....the famous "snow plow game" against the Dolphins. Yea....I remember that it snowed a few times....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Just going back on those coop sheets, I didn't realize there was an icing event here in Jan '78 that actually caused minor damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Because I want that season, and this year behind me as quickly as possible. Well at this point I guess if a few sweaty nights are the worst of it it's not so bad hopefully. Big snow winter on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Just going back on those coop sheets, I didn't realize there was an icing event here in Jan '78 that actually caused minor damage. You are probably thinking of the Jan 13-14, 1978 icing event. It was actually the event that turned the winter around a bit...it had been sputtering a bit after a cold start...we had a huge torching cutter a few days before the icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Next weekend looks fine. No high dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 You are probably thinking of the Jan 13-14, 1978 icing event. It was actually the event that turned the winter around a bit...it had been sputtering a bit after a cold start...we had a huge torching cutter a few days before the icing event. Yep. The guy from Hingham is Bob Skilling. If there is a COOP observer who has his sh*t together, it's him. He ran the BHO for years. Not sure if he retired from that or not. His obs are good. I think some of his snowfall wasn't always done every 6 hours due to his time at MQE, but pretty good obs. I also didn't realize how good the snowpack was in early Feb '61. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-97FC4040-A037-4C1D-82B5-0609EC4A4F0D.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 In a few years when I get some good equipment, I'd love to be a COOP observer. I only want to do it if I can be consistent, which my schedule doesn't exactly let me. Still, I'd do my best for sure. Nothing beats remarks from some of these guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Next weekend looks fine. No high dews. The GFS looks like perhaps we could see a brief spike in dews on Saturday, however, it will ultimately depend on the llvl flow. the GFS advertises somewhat of an off-shore flow which could allow for some higher moisture to work in but other than that if you want high dews you need to go down to the Gulf Coast states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 In a few years when I get some good equipment, I'd love to be a COOP observer. I only want to do it if I can be consistent, which my schedule doesn't exactly let me. Still, I'd do my best for sure. Nothing beats remarks from some of these guys. That would be pretty cool to do...if you have a neighbor you're close with (or even a friend) who has a bit more time you could always like train them and see if they would be interested in helping you out if you were busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 That would be pretty cool to do...if you have a neighbor you're close with (or even a friend) who has a bit more time you could always like train them and see if they would be interested in helping you out if you were busy. I try to train my wife...lol. She tries to measure when I'm not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I try to train my wife...lol. She tries to measure when I'm not there. I wish my apartment complex had a location to measure snow...it sucks. What I'll have to do this winter is run across the street and randomly go into someone's front yard...just hopefully they don't call the cops...that would be fun trying to explain. I could only imagine if I was out and asked my gf to run across the street and measure...that would go over well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I wish my apartment complex had a location to measure snow...it sucks. What I'll have to do this winter is run across the street and randomly go into someone's front yard...just hopefully they don't call the cops...that would be fun trying to explain. I could only imagine if I was out and asked my gf to run across the street and measure...that would go over well You could introduce yourself as the local weenie and you'd like to report snowfall this winter to the NWS but don't have a place to measure and ask if you could use their yard. Otherwise, do you have a small board that you could just put out some place and remove at the end of the snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 You could introduce yourself as the local weenie and you'd like to report snowfall this winter to the NWS but don't have a place to measure and ask if you could use their yard. Otherwise, do you have a small board that you could just put out some place and remove at the end of the snowfall? I am thinking of investing in a board. I may have a location in our parking lot I can perhaps place it but it isn't 100% ideal and it would probably get disturbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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