SACRUS Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Low 90`s around on Sat and then we may see some convection . Pending on the timing with that front, Saturday (9/6) may prove the warmest day of this regime/summer for some. Right now timing looks like mid to late afternoon. This one should also pack some punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Hopefully we'll see some rain by Saturday as its getting dry here...had just 1.88 for august and 2.50 in. since mid July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Hopefully we'll see some rain by Saturday as its getting dry here...had just 1.88 for august and 2.50 in. since mid July. That was the other interesting part of this summer was the # of rainy days and overall precip was less than expected for most. Most rain came from scattered heavy tstorms including the August deluge in LI. So while rainfall was near normal overall of the summer it all came in a few storms. Plenty of easterly/onshore flow days with clouds and very little precip and no real widespread soakers. Arthur missed east as did the August tropical deluge. Rain since 8/15 NYC: 1.01 EWR: 0.60 LGA: 2.05 JFK: 0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 That was the other interesting part of this summer was the # of rainy days and overall precip was less than expected for most. Most rain came from scattered heavy tstorms including the August deluge in LI. So while rainfall was near normal overall of the summer it all came in a few storms. Plenty of easterly/onshore flow days with clouds and very little precip and no real widespread soakers. Arthur missed east as did the August tropical deluge. Rain since 8/15 NYC: 1.01 EWR: 0.60 LGA: 2.05 JFK: 0.50 The first half of July was very wet here with 7.24 inches during the first 15 days but not much since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Appears they may have calibrated the erroneous TEB temp sensor. It had been roughly 2 - 4 higher than surrounding sites on the hotter days all of July and early Aug. Linden NJ temp sensor is still inaccurate for whatever reason - probably because of the location too close to pavement and whatever is traveling on that pavement - as you can see Linden has the highest temp last hour and with a good deal of sunshine today will more then likely be a few degrees warmer then all other stations in the area http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Hopefully we'll see some rain by Saturday as its getting dry here...had just 1.88 for august and 2.50 in. since mid July. ..dry as a bone out here too..all those thunderstorms that were tracking east dried out as they usually do..lawns are brown..trees showing early color/stress as the dryness continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 The last couple runs of the gfs continue to show a pretty decent cool down by mid month..definitely fall like with highs in the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Yesterday was def the hottest day of the summer...was brutal working. Reminded me of the days during the summer of 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 The last couple runs of the gfs continue to show a pretty decent cool down by mid month..definitely fall like with highs in the 60s It looks like the best cold departures will be over the Midwest and modify some as they head east. Possibly some much needed rainfall especially if the front hangs up near the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 It looks like the best cold departures will be over the Midwest and modify some as they head east. Possibly some much needed rainfall especially if the front hangs up near the East Coast. NAEFS.png Good we can use it out here! Amazing how dry it is here during the summer. If it weren't for the deluge we would be in a drought again this summer. Last year was hard on area plants. The deluge soaked the trees sufficiently to get them through but shallow rooted plants are showing stress again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Still mostly cloudy but should see more sun in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 It looks like the rest of September will be normal or slightly below normal in the temperature department for much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. In other words, summer is coming to an end in the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 It looks like the rest of September will be normal or slightly below normal in the temperature department for much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. In other words, summer is coming to an end in the next 5 days. The latest outlook from the CPS calls for above normal temps in the east the next 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Those long term NOAA probability maps are almost always above normal. I find them rather useless as it's not really a forecast, it's a probability scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 The latest outlook from the CPS calls for above normal temps in the east the next 3 months. That's for September. This looks possible, but not likely. Two big factors going against sustained above average temps. First is the diminishing average temps. Second is the diminishing daylight. Eventually we will see more normal days, but I wouldn't count on seeing it too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 That's for September. This looks possible, but not likely. Two big factors going against sustained above average temps. First is the diminishing average temps. Second is the diminishing daylight. Eventually we will see more normal days, but I wouldn't count on seeing it too often. My bad, here is the 3 month outlook Same story though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 My bad, here is the 3 month outlook Same story though Not bad. This is the lowest percentage I've seen from CPC for departures in the Fall. Seeing Alaska above normal is a sigh of relief. We don't want the opposite, or 2011-12 will be haunting our dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Good we can use it out here! Amazing how dry it is here during the summer. If it weren't for the deluge we would be in a drought again this summer. Last year was hard on area plants. The deluge soaked the trees sufficiently to get them through but shallow rooted plants are showing stress again. The NWS just posted the radar loop for that historic deluge. http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/HistoricFlooding_081314/kokx_basereflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Not bad. This is the lowest percentage I've seen from CPC for departures in the Fall. Seeing Alaska above normal is a sigh of relief. We don't want the opposite, or 2011-12 will be haunting our dreams. Well if September is like a +3 or higher then even if October or November are normal to below normal slightly then the three month average would still be somewhat above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Lol at below normal rest of month calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Lol at below normal rest of month calls Legit question, have you ever looked at a model in your life and if you have do you know how to read it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Lol at below normal rest of month calls https://m.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/740915625955698/?type=1&source=46&refid=17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Legit question, have you ever looked at a model in your life and if you have do you know how to read it? highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 On Sunday I spotted a few maples on the Thruway near the Yonkers toll plaza that were already starting to change. It's probably due to the stress of the drought which is now in place NW of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 On Sunday I spotted a few maples on the Thruway near the Yonkers toll plaza that were already starting to change. It's probably due to the stress of the drought which is now in place NW of 95. I've noticed it here at Mount Vernon, NY. I hope the foliage will be healthy. To add on: Of course, if freezing temperatures and a hard frost hits, it can kill the process within the leaf an dlead to poor fall color. Also, drought conditions during late summer and early fall can trigger an early “shutdown” of trees as they prepare for winter, causing leaves to fall early from trees without reaching their full color potential. http://www.almanac.com/content/fall-foliage-why-do-autumn-leaves-change-color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 That's for September. This looks possible, but not likely. Two big factors going against sustained above average temps. First is the diminishing average temps. Second is the diminishing daylight. Eventually we will see more normal days, but I wouldn't count on seeing it too often. I'm thinking that one of our posters didn't do too hot in middle school math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 https://m.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/740915625955698/?type=1&source=46&refid=17 Looks like the core of the cool will shift east into the Plains with the east likely seeing transient cooldowns and remaining overall warm/above normal. The ridge looks to surge again between the 10 - 12th before the next front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I'm thinking that one of our posters didn't do too hot in middle school math. What are you talking about? You thought I meant decadal average temps, but I'm actually talking about daily temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 What are you talking about? You thought I meant decadal average temps, but I'm actually talking about daily temps.You don't want daily averages to drop because then you have a greater separation between high temps and average highs. There's no other way to interpret your post otherwise it makes even less sense.Lets say averages drop, if you were trying to say that above average highs will drop also because of that, in the end it makes no difference since the separation between highs and average high is the same. If you were saying highs stay the same but averages drop, then the separation gets greater by the day. So either way something is wrong with the way you wrote your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 You don't want daily averages to drop because then you have a greater separation between high temps and average highs. There's no other way to interpret your post otherwise it makes even less sense. Lets say averages drop, if you were trying to say that above average highs will drop also because of that, in the end it makes no difference since the separation between highs and average high is the same. If you were saying highs stay the same but averages drop, then the separation gets greater by the day. So either way something is wrong with the way you wrote your post. Please supply an attached file with a Venn Diagram to sort this out. Thnxs in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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