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September 2014

Rtd208

By Rtd208,
in New York City Metro

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

You don't want daily averages to drop because then you have a greater separation between high temps and average highs. There's no other way to interpret your post otherwise it makes even less sense.

Lets say averages drop, if you were trying to say that above average highs will drop also because of that, in the end it makes no difference since the separation between highs and average high is the same.

If you were saying highs stay the same but averages drop, then the separation gets greater by the day.

So either way something is wrong with the way you wrote your post.

 

Come on Sun Dog...do your trick...speak...speak!

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

You don't want daily averages to drop because then you have a greater separation between high temps and average highs. There's no other way to interpret your post otherwise it makes even less sense.

Lets say averages drop, if you were trying to say that above average highs will drop also because of that, in the end it makes no difference since the separation between highs and average high is the same.

If you were saying highs stay the same but averages drop, then the separation gets greater by the day.

So either way something is wrong with the way you wrote your post.

 

Obviously the diminishing daylight will hamper any heat that will develop. It's a long explanation. With shorter daylight, the cold pool over Canada will become stronger and stronger, so naturally there will be below average temps when the cold fronts force their way down south. So there could be slightly above normal temps, but in general there will be normal or slightly below normal temps. I could go on and on, but I don't want to waste anyone's time. 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Obviously the diminishing daylight will hamper any heat that will develop. It's a long explanation. With shorter daylight, the cold pool over Canada will become stronger and stronger, so naturally there will be below average temps when the cold fronts force their way down south. So there could be slightly above normal temps, but in general there will be normal or slightly below normal temps. I could go on and on, but I don't want to waste anyone's time.

If that's correct then wouldn't the months of November through February be mostly normal to below normal due to a lack of daylight. Also it could still be above normal after a frontal passage even as daylight diminishes.

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

If that's correct then wouldn't the months of November through February be mostly normal to below normal due to a lack of daylight. Also it could still be above normal after a frontal passage even as daylight diminishes.

 

It's suppose to be normal to slightly below normal, but the Chaos Theory says otherwise. Generally we will see more below normal days as we move forward, but the warm night time lows will prevent any significant negative departures for the month. 

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

It's suppose to be normal to slightly below normal, but the Chaos Theory says otherwise. Generally we will see more below normal days as we move forward, but the warm night time lows will prevent any significant negative departures for the month.

This is not factually correct. There's a fundamental misunderstanding here.

Averages throughout the year go up and down because of the changes in insolation. Day to day highs range above and below said average. Just because we approach summer doesn't mean our highs become above normal because our averages are supposed to go up. The same is true for approaching winter. Lower sun means we're supposed to be cooler since our averages move down.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Obviously the diminishing daylight will hamper any heat that will develop. It's a long explanation. With shorter daylight, the cold pool over Canada will become stronger and stronger, so naturally there will be below average temps when the cold fronts force their way down south. So there could be slightly above normal temps, but in general there will be normal or slightly below normal temps. I could go on and on, but I don't want to waste anyone's time. 

You make no sense.

 

Yes, the cold pool will be stronger, but average temperatures are going down. It's not any easier to have below average temperatures in September than in August. Nothing about the change of seasons affects departures from normal...

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mob1

mob1

Posted
Posted

You make no sense.

Yes, the cold pool will be stronger, but average temperatures are going down. It's not any easier to have below average temperatures in September than in August. Nothing about the change of seasons affects departures from normal...

Agree, if anything it's the opposite, you can pull off a rainy day in the mid 60's in august but you're not likely to run a -20 in December, the same goes for getting 50's in January but it's unlikely to get a 105 reading in August. Case in point, as avarages decrease you're less likely to run below average temperatures.
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Cfa

Cfa

Posted
Posted

Agree, if anything it's the opposite, you can pull off a rainy day in the mid 60's in august but you're not likely to run a -20 in December

Running -20 in August is actually less likely than running -20 in December, standard deviation is greater in the winter than in the summer. I can't recall too many April-like days in August, but I can definitely recall having highs in the 20's in December.

the same goes for getting 50's in January but it's unlikely to get a 105 reading in August.

You do know that 50F is roughly 10 degrees above average in January, whereas 105F would be about 22 degrees above average in August? 60's in January vs 100's in August would be a better comparison, even though 60's in Jan are still more common since the standard deviation is greater in the winter than it is in the summer.

Case in point, as avarages decrease you're less likely to run below average temperatures.

I wish that were true, and our winters were more stable, but that isn't the case. As averages decrease, you're more likely to deviate from average, as evident in our record highs/lows in the winter vs the summer.

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mob1

mob1

Posted
Posted

Running -20 in August is actually less likely than running -20 in December, standard deviation is greater in the winter than in the summer. I can't recall too many April-like days in August, but I can definitely recall having highs in the 20's in December.

You do know that 50F is roughly 10 degrees above average in January, whereas 105F would be about 22 degrees above average in August? 60's in January vs 100's in August would be a better comparison, even though 60's in Jan are still more common since the standard deviation is greater in the winter than it is in the summer.

I wish that were true, and our winters were more stable, but that isn't the case. As averages decrease, you're more likely to deviate from average, as evident in our record highs/lows in the winter vs the summer.

You missed my point, this was a direct response to the claim that as temperatures descrease the colder anomalies are more likely, I was merely pointing out that it isn't the case. I know that overall temperature deviations are more likely in the heart of winter and summer. BTW; I beleive that NYC avarages around 36 for a high in January so the 50's will generally indicate a 20+ departure, but if you want to nitpick...
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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted

Or put differently, our record high for most days in late January days is in the 60s, while our average is around 38. Our average in July tops out at 86. I personally am not aware of any 115 degree day in NYC in June, but anxiously await correction by our budding Dr. Fujita.

Just a reminder, folks, that if you don't understand averages you don't have the math to understand model output. Hell, I do have the math and I still stay away from interpreting model output. It's not like arguing over whether Pavement is better or worse than the a White Stripes. This is not 'Nam; there are rules.

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

Or put differently, our record high for most days in late January days is in the 60s, while our average is around 38. Our average in July tops out at 86. I personally am not aware of any 115 degree day in NYC in June, but anxiously await correction by our budding Dr. Fujita.

Just a reminder, folks, that if you don't understand averages you don't have the math to understand model output. Hell, I do have the math and I still stay away from interpreting model output. It's not like arguing over whether Pavement is better or worse than the a White Stripes. This is not 'Nam; there are rules.

 

All time record high in January is actually in the 70s, so it's even more extreme.

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

Still on track for most of the warmer locations approaching or hitting 90F today/tomorrow, and then a more widespread opportunity for low 90s on Saturday, assuming convection/debris can hold-off until post 3pm.

 

Whats the wind direction and speed tomorrow? Will the south shore feel any break from the heat?

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Still on track for most of the warmer locations approaching or hitting 90F today/tomorrow, and then a more widespread opportunity for low 90s on Saturday, assuming convection/debris can hold-off until post 3pm.

 

better shot today for sure with mainly sunny conditions. 

 

11 AM ROundup:

 

TEB: 82

NYC: 82

EWR: 82

LGA: 81

JFK: 81

ISP: 81

New Brunswick: 84

TTN: 79

ACY:  81

PHL: 81

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Whats the wind direction and speed tomorrow? Will the south shore feel any break from the heat?

 

 

Doesn't look too bad near the south shore of LI. Probably lucky to hit 80, most of tomorrow in the upper 70s, with a decent southerly wind at 10-15 kts.

 

So the kids shouldn't fall asleep on you for the first day, or alternatively, you won't pass out / collapse while going over the syllabus.

 

 

 

cnbcx.png

 

e651tx.png

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danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted

You make no sense.

 

Yes, the cold pool will be stronger, but average temperatures are going down. It's not any easier to have below average temperatures in September than in August. Nothing about the change of seasons affects departures from normal...

 

Actually, it is slightly easier.  And easier in Oct. vs. Sept and Nov. vs. Oct... perhaps not simply above vs. below, but when we are talking about significant departures (+/- 5 degrees), it is far more likely to have this occurrence in winter vs. summer.  As alluded to in this thread, the day-to-day temperature variability in the mid latitudes is much greater during the cold season.

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